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Moving past first week of January General Discussion/banter


Baroclinic Zone

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I mean you can throw caution flags on every single model, ens run past 4 days, seems to be the easiest part of forecasting. There is always caution and worry that any pattern could change in the mid-range. We are not there yet with modeling.

 

i don't agree with that steve. i mean yes in an overall sense. but that's not what is going on here. 

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Anamolies for Today, tomorrow morning

 

the meteorologists have been saying that there would be issues with wave timing and that whenever one does ride NW of us we will torch, which is slated to happen this weekend.  what about this forecast that was too cold for today?  http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!192!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2013010112!!/

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Just excellent news. Legit winter threat to get excited about now and start tracking. Just get thru the next 3-4 days and its touchdowns for days and days

Just completely ignore the tail end of his post lol. The pacific is still the caution flag beyond this cold shot coming up late next week. It has ruined the winter thus far, lets hope it can get on track for Feb.

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Aside from the magic that is GC, any thoughts as to why it's been so much cooler here today?

 

Managed to get to 32.1 earlier in the afternoon, but that was fleeting and have been hovering around 31 essentially all day.  Not a huge difference than below, but notable nonetheless.

 

31.0/26

 

850 temps were 1-2 C cooler than yesterday and lots of cloud cover today put the kibosh on anything over 43 for the great majority.   got to 41 here after like 44 yesterday.  not much damage to snow cover today, prob more tommorrow with full sunshine even with cooler 850 temps 

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I mean you can throw caution flags on every single model, ens run past 4 days, seems to be the easiest part of forecasting. There is always caution and worry that any pattern could change in the mid-range. We are not there yet with modeling.

 

This is no general cautious statement because it is far out. This is warranted because the ensembles are trying to bring back low heights into alaska/Gulf of alaska and western north america in the long range...In a winter where -PNA has been a base state, you have to at least throw a flag out there. 

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lol I know but Allans site does not Archive. Phil knew what I was saying.

But it wasn't just the temps. They were off on the H5 so the temps crapped the bed. Timing was off. So while we can probably not expect the extremes of the Euro Op, the ensembles are witches tit.

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the meteorologists have been saying that there would be issues with wave timing and that whenever one does ride NW of us we will torch, which is slated to happen this weekend. what about this forecast that was too cold for today? http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!192!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2013010112!!/

you missed the point, nothing in your link screams record event. My original post was in reference to the Euros tendency in the 7-10 day range to show extreme departures for SNE. It has been doing it since the summer here. Let's see if those -40S show up.
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Just completely ignore the tail end of his post lol. The pacific is still the caution flag beyond this cold shot coming up late next week. It has ruined the winter thus far, lets hope it can get on track for Feb.

Nothing but 50 yard runs up the middle untouched and 75 yd deep bombs for scores to WR thru Feb. just score after score
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Just a bit beyond the cold Jan talk: if we can initiate a proper kelvin wave and get the atmosphere into a more nino like state for late winter, then there will be no torch this March. Also, if the vortex continues to take decent hits but doesn't fully return and ultimately just dies out, this would also ensure a -AO late winter-early spring. In the last few years, the warm NAM/-AO mid-winter would give the vortex enough time to strengthen late winter, prolonging the stratospheric winter state and delaying the final warming. This led to the warm March patterns.

 

This year could be quite the opposite if those few things pan out.

 

Okay, carry on with your hopes and dreams of snow and cold coming soon. You damn New Englanders will cash in again!

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