Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 I mean you can throw caution flags on every single model, ens run past 4 days, seems to be the easiest part of forecasting. There is always caution and worry that any pattern could change in the mid-range. We are not there yet with modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Can someone click on a few of those Tolland meso sites and see what the highs were. My phone won't let me open them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Those aren't anomalies Steve.lol I know but Allans site does not Archive. Phil knew what I was saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 I mean you can throw caution flags on every single model, ens run past 4 days, seems to be the easiest part of forecasting. There is always caution and worry that any pattern could change in the mid-range. We are not there yet with modeling. i don't agree with that steve. i mean yes in an overall sense. but that's not what is going on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Anamolies for Today, tomorrow morning the meteorologists have been saying that there would be issues with wave timing and that whenever one does ride NW of us we will torch, which is slated to happen this weekend. what about this forecast that was too cold for today? http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!192!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2013010112!!/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Just excellent news. Legit winter threat to get excited about now and start tracking. Just get thru the next 3-4 days and its touchdowns for days and days Just completely ignore the tail end of his post lol. The pacific is still the caution flag beyond this cold shot coming up late next week. It has ruined the winter thus far, lets hope it can get on track for Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Aside from the magic that is GC, any thoughts as to why it's been so much cooler here today? Managed to get to 32.1 earlier in the afternoon, but that was fleeting and have been hovering around 31 essentially all day. Not a huge difference than below, but notable nonetheless. 31.0/26 850 temps were 1-2 C cooler than yesterday and lots of cloud cover today put the kibosh on anything over 43 for the great majority. got to 41 here after like 44 yesterday. not much damage to snow cover today, prob more tommorrow with full sunshine even with cooler 850 temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 I mean you can throw caution flags on every single model, ens run past 4 days, seems to be the easiest part of forecasting. There is always caution and worry that any pattern could change in the mid-range. We are not there yet with modeling. This is no general cautious statement because it is far out. This is warranted because the ensembles are trying to bring back low heights into alaska/Gulf of alaska and western north america in the long range...In a winter where -PNA has been a base state, you have to at least throw a flag out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 lol I know but Allans site does not Archive. Phil knew what I was saying. But it wasn't just the temps. They were off on the H5 so the temps crapped the bed. Timing was off. So while we can probably not expect the extremes of the Euro Op, the ensembles are witches tit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 box pt and click really warm here right through wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Can someone click on a few of those Tolland meso sites and see what the highs were. My phone won't let me open them. 42º was the high temp on this side of town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 42º was the high temp here on this side of town. 43° for the max just north of town. Down to 38° now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 i don't agree with that steve. i mean yes in an overall sense. but that's not what is going on here.It goes on every day from the best forecasters, stable secure midrange forecasting in New England in winter is fraught with caution, I am referring to 7-10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Ok thanks so sounds like low 40's. thought that 46 was suspect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 The temp dropped 10 degrees ahead of a cold front? I don't think your high was correct. I'll see what it was when I get home SE Tolland almanac has a high of 46F and a low of 28F. My split so far today is 46/27, so it looks correct to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 No torch here today. Max so far is 31.6F and we're back down to 30.6F. Hit a rain/sleet shower a bit ago in Hooksett. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 the meteorologists have been saying that there would be issues with wave timing and that whenever one does ride NW of us we will torch, which is slated to happen this weekend. what about this forecast that was too cold for today? http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!192!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2013010112!!/you missed the point, nothing in your link screams record event. My original post was in reference to the Euros tendency in the 7-10 day range to show extreme departures for SNE. It has been doing it since the summer here. Let's see if those -40S show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Euro Ens look pretty good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Euro Ens look pretty good! ha. congrats on moderator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Just completely ignore the tail end of his post lol. The pacific is still the caution flag beyond this cold shot coming up late next week. It has ruined the winter thus far, lets hope it can get on track for Feb.Nothing but 50 yard runs up the middle untouched and 75 yd deep bombs for scores to WR thru Feb. just score after score Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 33.6F for a high here, Down to 31.1F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Nothing but 50 yard runs up the middle untouched and 75 yd deep bombs for scores to WR thru Feb. just score after score I hope man, just keeping it real for now though..Im more confident for you doing well at this point, skepticism defintiely grows exponentially further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Just a bit beyond the cold Jan talk: if we can initiate a proper kelvin wave and get the atmosphere into a more nino like state for late winter, then there will be no torch this March. Also, if the vortex continues to take decent hits but doesn't fully return and ultimately just dies out, this would also ensure a -AO late winter-early spring. In the last few years, the warm NAM/-AO mid-winter would give the vortex enough time to strengthen late winter, prolonging the stratospheric winter state and delaying the final warming. This led to the warm March patterns. This year could be quite the opposite if those few things pan out. Okay, carry on with your hopes and dreams of snow and cold coming soon. You damn New Englanders will cash in again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Suslak? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 day 10 ec ensemble does look ku-ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 CT Rain as a moderator. this a big day. CT Blizz will have to be on good behavior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 day 10 ec ensemble does look ku-ish. Hey man. How did your area make out in late Jan-Feb of 2007 when the pattern switched? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Can someone click on a few of those Tolland meso sites and see what the highs were. My phone won't let me open them. ktolla8 has 39.8 (currently 38.0) kctellin4 has 42.5 (currently 40.7) kctolla4 has 41.2 (currently 40.0) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 ktolla8 has 39.8 (currently 38.0) kctellin4 has 42.5 (currently 40.7) kctolla4 has 41.2 (currently 40.0) Thanks and AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 CT Rain as a moderator. this a big day. CT Blizz will have to be on good behavior. Beefing up security just in time for the pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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