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Moving past first week of January General Discussion/banter


Baroclinic Zone

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That's very rare to see that large of an area of -40C at 850mb in Quebec...you normally only see that in the upper Canadian praries which is pretty rare even there.

 

Amateur question...  What does that typically mean in terms of sensible ground temps?

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Amateur question...  What does that typically mean in terms of sensible ground temps?

 

-40C 850 temps? Well at night time, who knows with radiational cooling, but you could probably get -50F with that or greater depending on exact conditions.

 

Daytime highs would be in the -15 to -20F range I'd think or even colder..esp further north where the sunlight is less than our area. Its insane cold and rarely makes it south of the US border.

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Well obviously I wouldn't take it verbatim, lol. That's a historic cold blast for Maine/Quebec...but even if that verifies 5-8C warmer, that is still some pretty major cold.

 

I'm pretty confident there's going to be some extreme cold in there somewhere...but the question is how far south does it get and how far east. More recent guidance is rotating that PV into SE Canada which would obviously mean a greater risk for New England to see an arctic outbreak.

 

I think maybe the bulk scoots by to our NW, but it's going to get cold for a time regardless. 

 

I believe that's you Phil.

 

My opinion doesn't matter since i'm not from SNE, and I guess everyone else is on board for big snow and cold.

 

Luckily I'm all stocked up on canned goods, firewood, diesel and generators after the vicious onslaught of cold that started around Thanksgiving AWT.

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The Euro is on crack, how are those + 20 850s it had up to CNE panning out. Seems in its 7-10 day it goes historic then comes back to reality. Probably has the 5 h within reason which is plenty good enough. LOL though some are being careful.

 

?? it had +12C i believe. and, fwiw, the 12z GFS now has that as well. 

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LOL I didn't toss aside anything. Like I said, my question is more the longevity of this whole deal.

 

that's pretty much where i am at as well. 

 

there's little doubt at this point that we'll head downward temperature-wise next week. climo alone would pretty much dictate we aren't going to stay in the 40s/50s.

 

big questions to me are duration and strength.

 

and questioning doesn't imply it can't be good. i just don't believe that it's a lock that we develop and hold on to a wintry pattern. i hope we do but there are just as many reasons to be concerned as there are reasons for optimism. but optimism doesn't change the weather. so...fair enough to discuss, i think. 

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Euro ensembles are still much faster bringing the front through...by monday morning...and they are more robust with the Tuesday night/Wednesday wave. More robust also means warmer in the mid-levels too. So more sleet/ice thrown into the mix.

 

They are gung ho on the -NAO too. Still Scooter caution flags though with the Pacific going forward.

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Euro ensembles are still much faster bringing the front through...by monday morning...and they are more robust with the Tuesday night/Wednesday wave. More robust also means warmer in the mid-levels too. So more sleet/ice thrown into the mix.

They are gung ho on the -NAO too. Still Scooter caution flags though with the Pacific going forward.

Just excellent news. Legit winter threat to get excited about now and start tracking. Just get thru the next 3-4 days and its touchdowns for days and days
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