CT Rain Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Wow Euro is brutal. Shows a reload too at D10... probably could get some snow with a brief relax around D11-D12 before the bottom drops out again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 it's still a bit funny to see the SE ridge there given the big -AO/-NAO/+PNA being depict in that range...but maybe it's just taking a few days to get beat down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 9, 2013 Author Share Posted January 9, 2013 And I still think that ULL may have a say in things too. Let's just hope the PV doesn't meatgrinder it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Wow Euro is brutal. Shows a reload too at D10... probably could get some snow with a brief relax around D11-D12 before the bottom drops out again. Nice look for a snow event before the cold comes down again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Let's just hope the PV doesn't meatgrinder it. It easily may..might even be greater than 50/50 for that. But as an example of how that will be depicted differently on models, the Canadian actually retros it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 I think the overrunning into pressing cold may be pertty robust vs what the euro is showing next week if the fropa happens as depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 That looks cold in Quebec City! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Yeah Jerry you can see the energy out west that Forky was hinting at too. I'm not trying to comment too much on a day 10 op prog, but just suggesting how things can shake out if that vortex decides to sit north of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 I think the overrunning into pressing cold may be pertty robust vs what the euro is showing next week if the fropa happens as depicted.would love to see that somewhere...been awhile since anyone's had that setup in NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Nat gas mets FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 down to about an 1" of snow now...44 degrees and sunny...31 mph gusting to 45 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Nat gas mets FTL Lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 some light rain approaching CT/NY line-maybe it will hold together-would be nice to wash the salt off the roads...good god, I can't believe I typed that-how boring it's been! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Day 10 Operational Euro brings 850mb temps down to about -38C in northern New England, even -20C near Mount Tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 That would be a pretty epic cold outbreak for Maine...obviously plenty cold here too, but up there they would be challenging records Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 i've noticed the euro to be a little too closed low happy in that region at this range. there were lots of muted heat waves over the past few summers that wound up not being muted (at least down here) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 9, 2013 Author Share Posted January 9, 2013 Meanwhile. All the way up to 46F 46/31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 that would be pretty sweet if we can get that stuff down here. that would be good times. hope we aren't shifting toward this being a glancing shot lifting out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 That would be a pretty epic cold outbreak for Maine...obviously plenty cold here too, but up there they would be challenging records Yeah, Not the record i would be looking for, That would certainly raise havoc with utilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 that would be pretty sweet if we can get that stuff down here. that would be good times. hope we aren't shifting toward this being a glancing shot lifting out D10 op Euro looked like reload to me with another mean looking cold snap ready to dive south into northern plains for Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 That's very rare to see that large of an area of -40C at 850mb in Quebec...you normally only see that in the upper Canadian praries which is pretty rare even there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 D10 op Euro looked like reload to me with another mean looking cold snap ready to dive south into northern plains for Canada. Yeah its amazing how the models are so unsure of the pattern beyond D10...I mean, of course they usually have some uncertainty that far out, but these swings are a lot more than the usual D10+ caveats. GFS was an example of how we can go bad after D10 and the OP Euro is an example of how we reload veyr nicely (with perhaps a shot at a major snow event before the reload from that system in the central US) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 That's very rare to see that large of an area of -40C at 850mb in Quebec...you normally only see that in the upper Canadian praries which is pretty rare even there. Which is a potential scooter red flag, JMHO. Rare doesn't mean it cannot happen, but we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Yeah its amazing how the models are so unsure of the pattern beyond D10...I mean, of course they usually have some uncertainty that far out, but these swings are a lot more than the usual D10+ caveats. GFS was an example of how we can go bad after D10 and the OP Euro is an example of how we reload veyr nicely (with perhaps a shot at a major snow event before the reload from that system in the central US) Just not a lot of certainty going forward. All things considered it looks like a fun pattern to me. We'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Which is a potential scooter red flag, JMHO. Rare doesn't mean it cannot happen, but we shall see. Well obviously I wouldn't take it verbatim, lol. That's a historic cold blast for Maine/Quebec...but even if that verifies 5-8C warmer, that is still some pretty major cold. I'm pretty confident there's going to be some extreme cold in there somewhere...but the question is how far south does it get and how far east. More recent guidance is rotating that PV into SE Canada which would obviously mean a greater risk for New England to see an arctic outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 I'd still bet the risk is on the warmer/mixed precip side than it is cold and dry side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Seems like even Scooter tossed aside flags. Only 1 person left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Yep. I mentioned that a couple pages back when the GFs came out. Very important feature. I'm also wondering if the 72-108 period is correct - seems like it is over amplifying what is initially a weaker Inside Slider along the west coast D4. That small perturbation in the flow cuts off and then assists in dumping latent heat into the SE ridge - prolonging the ridges life. But if all that is over down, what actually gets cut off is comparatively weaker, and that would change things back east. It's a possible lesson in how fractals in the physics can emerge scenarios that aren't real, then they go on to create who knows what - modeling beyond D4's is fraught with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Seems like even Scooter tossed aside flags. Only 1 person left There are plenty of flags here. No need to harp on them yet but there's a lot of issues that could prevent us from getting snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Seems like even Scooter tossed aside flags. Only 1 person left Get ready for some possible rain drops in a bit. Dry air may make it tough for precipitation to reach the ground on the east side, but just got some reports of DZ and -RA near the NY/CT border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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