OSUmetstud Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 the gfs at day 10 and 00z ec ensemble at day 10 aren't all that different...the fundamental difference on the ec ensemble is the warm anomalies over Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Overcast and low wind right now is mitigating the torch. Even if it does spike up for a time later this afternoon, we've lost several hours of prime snow melt time...should be good news for maintaining snow cover longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Elevations were torched this AM. Kevin only tickled below 32F. Meanwhile all the good radiators were in the 10s/20s. Yeah excellent inversion... summit of Mansfield hung around 20F all night, while here in town we hit 4F. Yesterday's hi/lo was a nice 40F spread of 37/-3 and then back down to low single digits last night again. Keeping the torch at bay currently...but its a losing battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Because its got some serious issues. Sounds like some init. Errors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 I still have snow otg. Surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Because its got some serious issues. Sounds like some init. Errors link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Overcast and low wind right now is mitigating the torch. Even if it does spike up for a time later this afternoon, we've lost several hours of prime snow melt time...should be good news for maintaining snow cover longer.it all comes down to Sat nite and Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 I still have snow otg. Surprised. Still have patches down here. Some lawns are still completely covered in more sheltered areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 I still have snow otg. Surprised. Even Boston Common is still partially covered. I can see it right from the window here at work. Still pretty much solid 90-100% cover even a bit inside 128 on the train ride this morning. Only the sun torched slopes around the busy streets are showing grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 it all comes down to Sat nite and Sunday Yep... that's when its probably going to disappear quickly. Hopefully everyone that had 7-8"+ will have started with enough to keep the grass covered, at least north facing and shaded aspects. Warm moist overnight periods is when it really disappears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Yep... that's when its probably going to disappear quickly. Hopefully everyone that had 7-8"+ will have started with enough to keep the grass covered, at least north facing and shaded aspects. Warm moist overnight periods is when it really disappears. Still solid 7-8 OTG at home . If we can keep Saturday cloudy and dews near 32 we may be able to escape the HHH wx on Sunday with some left. Hopefully there's little wind on Sunday. Then the front tears thru Sunday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 op GFS still has the shot of another winter storm before the torch returns lol. Beyond D10 is the big concern. It's certainly possible the pattern evolves that way with the PV over Baffin Bay... let's hope it's wrong... but the Scooter caution flags are a good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Loving the mid level clouds today. It's one of those sun dimly visible afternoons. Only 29F so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Even Boston Common is still partially covered. I can see it right from the window here at work. Still pretty much solid 90-100% cover even a bit inside 128 on the train ride this morning. Only the sun torched slopes around the busy streets are showing grass. a few patches here and there, but still have most of the snow., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Yep... that's when its probably going to disappear quickly. Hopefully everyone that had 7-8"+ will have started with enough to keep the grass covered, at least north facing and shaded aspects. Its going to get destroyed on Sunday. I think the woods and the north slopes may be able to survive, but its going to take a real beating for about 36 hours. If this was a 12-18 hour thing, then most of the cover would survive I think. So far though, there has been very little damage. But its coming this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 we're going to lose a good amount of snow today. High of 46 with a wind advisory SW 20-30 g 45 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 I'll be above freezing for about 84 hours lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 op GFS still has the shot of another winter storm before the torch returns lol. Beyond D10 is the big concern. It's certainly possible the pattern evolves that way with the PV over Baffin Bay... let's hope it's wrong... but the Scooter caution flags are a good idea. Yeah, we're going to get some good shots, that's all we can hope for Ryan. If we go 5-7 days cold, 5-7 days mild...fine by me long as we get snow in between. I understand this is warm weather right now but so far I don't think it's all that bad. Could have been much worse and I know it will be this weekend. But...we're going to have some shots and with pattern instability comes the chance for something historic in terms of a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 NWS has Kevin above freezing from Friday morning through Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Its going to get destroyed on Sunday. I think the woods and the north slopes may be able to survive, but its going to take a real beating for about 36 hours. If this was a 12-18 hour thing, then most of the cover would survive I think. So far though, there has been very little damage. But its coming this weekend. Think you're getting a little crazy with the warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 NWS has Kevin above freezing from Friday morning through Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Still hanging onto about 100% cover here, but you can tell it's getting pretty thin in areas. I only expect a few remnant snow banks by Monday though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Still 29/26 here and OVC.last week when some posted how today could be near record temps others posted how inversions and clouds could muddy those waters. Until we get mixing and NW downslope, torch on hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 I'll be above freezing for about 84 hours lol. The temp will probably be above freezing here for nearly 3 days straight...Fri/Sat/Sun...but the stuff on Fri and at least the first half of Saturday looks minimal for snow pack destruction...you want dewpoints above about 37F to really start eating away at it. This 39/24 stuff doesn't cut it for doing major damage to a high water content snow pack over >8". The 53/45 stuff on Sunday is what is going to kill it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 The temp will probably be above freezing here for nearly 3 days straight...Fri/Sat/Sun...but the stuff on Fri and at least the first half of Saturday looks minimal for snow pack destruction...you want dewpoints above about 37F to really start eating away at it. This 39/24 stuff doesn't cut it for doing major damage to a high water content snow pack over >8". The 53/45 stuff on Sunday is what is going to kill it. How about wind and rain? What if we avoid that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 I may be looking at the wrong run but it doesn't look like the GGEM backed off on the cutter/overrunning/ice event. GFS may be alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 NWS has Kevin above freezing from Friday morning through Tuesday. i told him back last week that he'd have at least a 48 stretch and he told me good luck. he almost did it in tue/wed period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 i told him back last week that he'd have at least a 48 stretch and he told me good luck. he almost did it in tue/wed period. Well let's be fair , you were talking about the mid week timeframe. Below freezing last night and tonight and highs upper 30's - low 40's verify. This weekend if you want credit for that congrats I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 How about wind and rain? What if we avoid that? We won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 P&C for my location has me above freezing from Friday to Monday AM (low of 32 on the nose) What's worse is that P&C for Cannon Mt. at 3700' is even warmer for part of the torch event "Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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