dryslot Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Oh, I'm definitely not saying that I think it's right. I was just struck by the contrast with some of the prior op runs, and with the apparent conventional wisdom about the anticipated return to a cold pattern. As a cold lover I've definitely been comforted by what I've heard about the GEFS and Euro, as well as the atmospheric analysis of many of the mets here -- understanding, of course, that there's a lot of volatility. There is a lot of volatility when we transistion, Thats why you can't ride the op model wave on any of the models as they flip flop from run to run, The ensembles usually give you more of an idea as to the direction this is going, But its going to take a few more days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 How do the ec ensembles look after day 10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 the gfs ensembles now have massive spread on the AO in the long range...anywhere from below -6 to to 2.5/3. The mean still looks like around -2...but huge spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 the gfs ensembles now have massive spread on the AO in the long range...anywhere from below -6 to to 2.5/3. The mean still looks like around -2...but huge spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 the gfs ensembles now have massive spread on the AO in the long range...anywhere from below -6 to to 2.5/3. The mean still looks like around -2...but huge spread. Models really struggling with the volatility. Amazing changes for even 4-6 day lead, obviously grasping massive changes that will hopefully break in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Euro ensembles rebuild an Aleutian ridge with a -NAO. Lets hope for that -NAO.....or a very poleward Aleutian ridge. Verbatim, they looked pretty good....but we know the caveats this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 GFS pretty squashed for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Snowy on the GFS for next Tues night/Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Snowy on the GFS for next Tues night/Wed. It's actually pretty cold. Would love for that to happen. Light wind overrunning snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Snowy on the GFS for next Tues night/Wed. Actually decent ensemble support for that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 9, 2013 Author Share Posted January 9, 2013 Snowy on the GFS for next Tues night/Wed. With precip.issues for extreme southern areas.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 With precip.issues for extreme southern areas.. The big blue line means little right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 GFS leaves a lot of the southern energy behind in the SW. Most of the snow or ice scenarios have been doing this...including the Euro. GFS leaves even more energy behind than the Euro allowing for a colder solution that is mainly snow. Should be interesting to track it. The southwest energy ejection in positively tilted troughs is one of the weaknesses of NWP. Should just be another volatile variable to track over the next several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Lol these model runs are pure entertainment the way they are gyrating. Several more runs till any continuity or semblance there of, I would assume Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 With precip.issues for extreme southern areas.. Its not like we have big SE winds furnacing the low levels. Also water temps will be colder, and the month being January helps. Again not like these details matter 7 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Gonna toss GFS for now and go ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 9, 2013 Author Share Posted January 9, 2013 The big blue line means little right now. Really Steve, I did not know that. Can we just describe what a model shows verbatim? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Really Steve, I did not know that. Can we just describe what a model shows verbatim? Considered yourself educated. Lock up 240 but the big blue line gives Phil headaches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 9, 2013 Author Share Posted January 9, 2013 Again not like these details matter 7 days out. None of it matters at this range. The fact that it shows snow means nothing too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Nice inversion in town today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 9, 2013 Author Share Posted January 9, 2013 Nice inversion in town today Elevations were torched this AM. Kevin only tickled below 32F. Meanwhile all the good radiators were in the 10s/20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 GFS is snow for Boston even next week with that look. Now probably too suppressed per their bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 GFS is a nice example of the caution flags flying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 GFS is a nice example of the caution flags flying. NAO is important because it does appear that the Pacific will retrograde. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 NAO is important because it does appear that the Pacific will retrograde. LR GFS shows what might happen when you plant the PV over Baffin Island after a PAC retrograde. Hopefully that doesn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Please Toss entire run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Still 29/26 here and OVC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 9, 2013 Author Share Posted January 9, 2013 Tasty day 10 on 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Please Toss entire run Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Why?Because its got some serious issues. Sounds like some init. Errors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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