Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 ??What the euro shows for interior sne and what Will and Ryan have been discussing for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 GFS was way too over amped with the SE ridge which we knew was probably the case. That was causing it to show warmth and waves cutting to the west thru Wednesdsy. We knew that wasn't likely with the position of that cold high to our NW That's not true. The high doesn't force the low south, it's the H5 pattern. Don't forget the 00z euro run two days ago also had a cutter for us late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Hopefully something interesting anyways. I still don't feel the snow threat, but I've like the mixed threat for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 What the euro shows for interior sne and what Will and Ryan have been discussing for us when did they say ice to snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 The Euro would actually be kind of funny because it gives Kevin like a 34-35F rainstorm while north of the pike in the hills gets the icing and frozen precip. It would be like a lot of ice storms around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Well the euro was bringing cold air in too early. Technically it brings it in earlier, by still warm Aloft. So it has the waves of low pressure right like gfs had. i'm still not gung-ho on the idea that SNE gets into much chill until later in the week. but we'll see how things shake out over the next couple of days. will only take a little burp in the flow for that boundary be stuck in CNYS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 The Euro would actually be kind of funny because it gives Kevin like a 34-35F rainstorm while north of the pike in the hills gets the icing and frozen precip. It would be like a lot of ice storms around here. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 The Euro would actually be kind of funny because it gives Kevin like a 34-35F rainstorm while north of the pike in the hills gets the icing and frozen precip. It would be like a lot of ice storms around here.2m Euro temps Phail as You always tell us. Ice is a threat for all of SNE away from coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 i'm still not gung-ho on the idea that SNE gets into much chill until later in the week. but we'll see how things shake out over the next couple of days. will only take a little burp in the flow for that boundary be stuck in CNYS Yeah the better cold likely waits until then. For you and I, it would take a nice weenie push east in order to get good cold air in here for any meaninful winter wx. I think ORH area and points w and n can squeeze something in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 2m Euro temps Phail as You always tell us. Ice is a threat for all of SNE away from coast I'm always careful in icing setups bringing the FRZ line too far south. Its ice storm climo for SNE. I was somewhat accounting for that already in the Euro 2m temps. Euro verbatim might have been a little warmer than 34-35F for you during the peak of it. Not that the details matter this far out, but its a setup we've seen time and time again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 2m Euro temps Phail as You always tell us. Ice is a threat for all of SNE away from coast Oohhhh....yeaahhh...I'm going to have I Go ahead and disagree with you on that...yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 It was nice to see models cutting back on warmth but Sat nite and Sunday will still do some damage Oh' I agree but could be much worse. Looking forward to next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 I'm always careful in icing setups bringing the FRZ line too far south. Its ice storm climo for SNE. I was somewhat accounting for that already in the Euro 2m temps. Euro verbatim might have been a little warmer than 34-35F for you during the peak of it. Not that the details matter this far out, but its a setup we've seen time and time again. As we get into heart of winter we see that ice climo shift south. I've had my best ice events in January. I just have a gut instinct on this that we see that low level cold lodge in pretty far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 As we get into heart of winter we see that ice climo shift south. I've had my best ice events in January. I just have a gut instinct on this that we see that low level cold lodge in pretty far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Youve liked a winter event for this for days now all of a sudden I'm crazy to think ice. Ok dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 weird temps this morning, with SLK still only 5 degrees despite good elevation. Sneaky arctic air or a super inversion is more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Youve liked a winter event for this for days now all of a sudden I'm crazy to think ice. Ok dude It was just directed at your post. Yeah of course you could get some ice....never said you couldn't. But you may have to "favor" normal ice climo right now. This is one those deals where if it goes south enough to get you ice....it may very well end up a sn/ip deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Just made the mistake of looking at the 6z GFS. LOL....doesn't love the cool down does it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Nice frosty sunrise/moonset in southern Maine early this morning. We bottomed out at around 17. Fairly deep snowpack and still snow on the road after 2 days near 40, but we'll definitely take a hit this weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 It was just directed at your post. Yeah of course you could get some ice....never said you couldn't. But you may have to "favor" normal ice climo right now. This is one those deals where if it goes south enough to get you ice....it may very well end up a sn/ip deal. Yeah the Euro was not far from a more sleet/SN look here, but it definitely looked like ice for the middle of the event. Kevin will hate to admit it, but the geography makes it tougher to keep a low dewpoint feed where he is. The shallow cold air loves to bank up against the hills to his northeast. His area is much better for sleet than ZR. But if we get a good solid high, then anyone could see ice away from the coast...you just don't normally forecast that type of ice event until you are close in. Definitely not incorrect to say this far out that any icing setup would typically favor the east slopes of Berks and N ORH hills/Monads. Way too far out for people to be throwing weenies around though expecting a specific track or magnitude of high to north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Just made the mistake of looking at the 6z GFS. LOL....doesn't love the cool down does it?cold looks transient there doesn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Just made the mistake of looking at the 6z GFS. LOL....doesn't love the cool down does it? Yep, looks like a whole different regime. Shows a warm cutter during the heart of what many have been speculating could be a memorable cold outbreak. I did a double-take to make sure I wasn't looking at the wrong run or dates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 As we get into heart of winter we see that ice climo shift south. I've had my best ice events in January. I just have a gut instinct on this that we see that low level cold lodge in pretty far south. Just logged on this morning.... I see some things haven't changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Ha there is NO consistency from run to run...completely different every run let alone model vs model. Was having a discussion in a broadcast met group on FB earlier tonight and everyone's head is spinning trying to keep up with all the different solutions that come out with each run of Euro and GFS. They have changed every run today and that's been the hallmark for the past week since the SSW started building in the strat. We saw it again as the 00z Euro backed off a bit with the cold shot for next week. I'm not saying the pattern looks completely "boring," but with little run-to-run consistency with respect to possible major cold, I'm not sold. With that said, the ensembles are still in pretty good agreement that some notably cold air still makes it into portions of the Northeast. (850mb temps -10 to -15C for most of us, as opposed to near -20C like the 12z Euro was showing) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Yep, looks like a whole different regime. Shows a warm cutter during the heart of what many have been speculating could be a memorable cold outbreak. I did a double-take to make sure I wasn't looking at the wrong run or dates. Not trying to be argumentative but why would you favor the op vs GEFS? GEFS trended well colder vs 12/6/0z in the 11-15 period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Models are real over the place with the Tue/Wed event. Ensemble members are all over the place too so we may even be able to sniff out more snow if the thing ticks south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Models are real over the place with the Tue/Wed event. Ensemble members are all over the place too so we may even be able to sniff out more snow if the thing ticks south. We aren't even sure if there's two events. Some ensembles bring it in here around Mon night/early Tue and then bring another event in about 36-48 hours later. Just different waves riding along the frontal boundary. My gut is that it probably just ends up being one main event on Tues night or Wed. But heck, not sure we can really rule anything out at this point. It could still be 50F on Tuesday if everything went wrong, lol..or we could be snowing in the 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Euro actually has high temps for Monday at midnight on Sunday night. The afternoon temps are near freezing despite 850 temps still a bit above zero. The airmass itself is fairly sloped so it definitely would be a threat for ice on any wave trying to come from the south and ride over the top of it. We'll have to just wait and see what it looks like as we get a little closer. Still a ways out. Yeah the ice "threat" has been flagged for a while ... coming and going in the runs. Have to watch out on that - these open waves that look weak that originate out of the Gulf are big PWAT transporters. The 06z GFS demos that nicely... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Not trying to be argumentative but why would you favor the op vs GEFS? GEFS trended well colder vs 12/6/0z in the 11-15 period. Oh, I'm definitely not saying that I think it's right. I was just struck by the contrast with some of the prior op runs, and with the apparent conventional wisdom about the anticipated return to a cold pattern. As a cold lover I've definitely been comforted by what I've heard about the GEFS and Euro, as well as the atmospheric analysis of many of the mets here -- understanding, of course, that there's a lot of volatility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 The models certain verified on this long boring stretch of dry weather...nothing of note here since the 12/29 event...11 days and counting of dry weather.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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