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Moving past first week of January General Discussion/banter

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

Ryan keepin weenies smiling...

 

I wouldn't want to be from NY and points south... and it's certainly possible we just get a few meh storms out of this. Though Kevin is expecting an epic pattern I think it's reasonable to expect a 10-15 day pattern or active weather including some wintry threats. Also... a period of some decent below normal chill which is hard to come by these days during DJF.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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I wouldn't want to be from NY and points south... and it's certainly possible we just get a few meh storms out of this. Though Kevin is expecting an epic pattern I think it's reasonable to expect a 10-15 day pattern or active weather including some wintry threats. Also... a period of some decent below normal chill which is hard to come by these days during DJF.

 

 

 

We'll have a shot at our coldest outbreak prob since Jan 2005 and possibly Jan 2004 if things line up right like they nearly did on the 12z Euro.

 

But we might just get fringed by cold while the plains takes the brunt of it too. Either way I agree that we shoul dhave several chances out of this pattern coming up for the final 2 weeks of the month.

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted

I wouldn't want to be from NY and points south... and it's certainly possible we just get a few meh storms out of this. Though Kevin is expecting an epic pattern I think it's reasonable to expect a 10-15 day pattern or active weather including some wintry threats. Also... a period of some decent below normal chill which is hard to come by these days during DJF.

 

who does on this Board (and I am!)

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tombo82685

tombo82685

Posted
Posted

Yeah it's one of the questions I have. Hopefully the 00z run improves.

I wonder if that's mjo related. The gefs bring it into phase 7 which argues for cold in the east ridge out west. They then loop it back into phase 6 which is a warmer pattern but not blow torch like phase 4/5. So say it doesn't loop back into phase 6 and continues into phase 8 I wonder if it would react the same. Btw the roundy mjo is pretty bullish on bringing it through phase 7 and into 8. But we all know how unpredictable the mjo is.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

I wouldn't want to be from NY and points south... and it's certainly possible we just get a few meh storms out of this. Though Kevin is expecting an epic pattern I think it's reasonable to expect a 10-15 day pattern or active weather including some wintry threats. Also... a period of some decent below normal chill which is hard to come by these days during DJF.

 

That's how I feel. I'm not really on the epic train out of this, but it probably brings some cold and wintry chances. Maybe it will be epic and I'm wrong, but this pattern needs to prove it to me first.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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I wonder if that's mjo related. The gefs bring it into phase 7 which argues for cold in the east ridge out west. They then loop it back into phase 6 which is a warmer pattern but not blow torch like phase 4/5. So say it doesn't loop back into phase 6 and continues into phase 8 I wonder if it would react the same. Btw the roundy mjo is pretty bullish on bringing it through phase 7 and into 8. But we all know how unpredictable the mjo is.

 

With a wave that strong, it definitely will play around with models...hence why I think models will bounce around for a few to several days.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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Posted

We'll have a shot at our coldest outbreak prob since Jan 2005 and possibly Jan 2004 if things line up right like they nearly did on the 12z Euro.

 

But we might just get fringed by cold while the plains takes the brunt of it too. Either way I agree that we shoul dhave several chances out of this pattern coming up for the final 2 weeks of the month.

 

Yeah even if things don't line up for a direct shot of real cold I think we still could pull out a few days of decent negative departures. 

 

Either way several threats I'm sure to track. Should be a fun second half of January. 

 

Of course it's unclear how the pattern evolves into February but this is so much better than last year it's not even funny. 

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

Earthlight's GEFS pattern is probably not horrific for New England. Seems gradient-ish with plenty of cold north of the border and an active southern stream?

 

I think it's all about expectations.  What's coming is better than what we have this week for sure and probably at least as good as what we had a few weeks ago that produced the snow we're watching melt now.  I just am not in the camp that it locks in for any real period of time.  I think we see oscillations, perhaps on an almost week schedule.  Like I said if I had to bet we get 2, maybe 3 chances between the 15th and 23 (speaking of New England,  the first one is warm for many) and then I think the cold air is shoveled NE into Canada and we wait for another storm chain to pull it back down by the 23-25th.

 

Spokes on the wheel shooting down into the US but with 42N in New England being in about the 4 o'clock position as the cold air fires down from noon to 6 and then rides the wheel up and out over and over. (counterclockwise of course) 

 

Here's the big question.  Do we get a -NAO to keep the boundary out south of us so that we get clobbered ala the 94/96 type winters, or does the -NAO never materialize and we're really left bouncing around and perhaps bummed out beyond that initial 3-6 days?

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

I think it's all about expectations.  What's coming is better than what we have this week for sure and probably at least as good as what we had a few weeks ago that produced the snow we're watching melt now.  I just am not in the camp that it locks in for any real period of time.  I think we see oscillations, perhaps on an almost week schedule.  Like I said if I had to bet we get 2, maybe 3 chances between the 15th and 23 (speaking of New England,  the first one is warm for many) and then I think the cold air is shoveled NE into Canada and we wait for another storm chain to pull it back down by the 23-25th.

 

Spokes on the wheel shooting down into the US but with 42N in New England being in about the 4 o'clock position as the cold air fires down from noon to 6 and then rides the wheel up and out over and over. (counterclockwise of course) 

 

Here's the big question.  Do we get a -NAO to keep the boundary out south of us so that we get clobbered ala the 94/96 type winters, or does the -NAO never materialize and we're really left bouncing around and perhaps bummed out beyond that initial 3-6 days?

 

Good post... agree.

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QVectorman

QVectorman

Posted
Posted

I think it's all about expectations.  What's coming is better than what we have this week for sure and probably at least as good as what we had a few weeks ago that produced the snow we're watching melt now.  I just am not in the camp that it locks in for any real period of time.  I think we see oscillations, perhaps on an almost week schedule.  Like I said if I had to bet we get 2, maybe 3 chances between the 15th and 23 (speaking of New England,  the first one is warm for many) and then I think the cold air is shoveled NE into Canada and we wait for another storm chain to pull it back down by the 23-25th.

 

Spokes on the wheel shooting down into the US but with 42N in New England being in about the 4 o'clock position as the cold air fires down from noon to 6 and then rides the wheel up and out over and over. (counterclockwise of course) 

 

Here's the big question.  Do we get a -NAO to keep the boundary out south of us so that we get clobbered ala the 94/96 type winters, or does the -NAO never materialize and we're really left bouncing around and perhaps bummed out beyond that initial 3-6 days?

 

Yup agree with you on dates...rehashing just the dates I laid out a few weeks ago for shortwaves/cooler-colder periods... Jan 15-19 Jan 20-24 Jan 24-27 and Jan 27-29 and Feb 1-5. And the latest CCKW map shows a extra tropical rossby wave train at 160W 30N and a developing one at 140E 20N along with the CCKW at 150E 0N. The 140E train is likely a bi product of the MJO moving through the w. pacific so it may be our first piece of energy thanks to the MJO. The timing of these match up to the dates we have all been throwing around on here. The 160W RW should move over the eastern US on Jan 14-15 and the 140E should pass over the eastern US Jan. 22-23. Time frame Tip was throwing around based on the PNA. Also watching the GWO, the analogs are pointing to an arctic blast of air Jan 23-26. I need another 2 days watching the signal to confirm this so it may be +-2 days on that time frame. 

 

post-3697-0-84096700-1357705342_thumb.jp

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NJwinter23

NJwinter23

Posted
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Well the gefs are really just trending what the euro ensembles have been showing in the late 11-15 day. Im all for a decent cold shot swinging through late next week through the weekend, if not a rather impressive one. But id guess it rotates through and relaxes for a time as we see the pacific ridging shift around. That shifting could very well be related to the phase 7/6 mjo looping on the models when you look at the 500mb correlations, and as scott said its reason to be cautious about model volatility..After that though hopefully we can get an 8-1-2 orbit and a +PNA/colder pattern with some longevity at the end of jan/beginning of feb

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New England Storm

New England Storm

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Posted

So we have a cool down/return to normal- done deal, the real question(s) are1. Can we lock in epic cold-Ehh maybe not

                                                                                                                         2.What left for JAN? - Seasonal temps? 1-2 either side of normal??

                                                                                                                         3.Storms??? When will we have some white stuff_ (up it the air at this point, could 

                                                                                                                            we be to deep in cold with storm(s)  heading ots south of us?

                                                                                                                         4. With no locked in cold, how long to the next warm up?

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QVectorman

QVectorman

Posted
Posted

Well the gefs are really just trending what the euro ensembles have been showing in the late 11-15 day. Im all for a decent cold shot swinging through late next week through the weekend, if not a rather impressive one. But id guess it rotates through and relaxes for a time as we see the pacific ridging shift around. That shifting could very well be related to the phase 7/6 mjo looping on the models when you look at the 500mb correlations, and as scott said its reason to be cautious about model volatility..After that though hopefully we can get an 8-1-2 orbit and a +PNA/colder pattern with some longevity at the end of jan/beginning of feb

 

Ugh...I don't know why quotes are all messed up but anyways Mike Ventrice hit on the MJO signal fading on the WH diagrams in the main forum thought I would share his info. Which gives me reason to believe that the later dates past the 25th on my list will be products of the MJO's phase 7 and maybe going to 8 or stalling in 7 for a couple days after the 16th.

 

This was a great discussion! I'm glad to see this in a NWS WFO discussion. This discussion is in agreement with what Adam and I spoke about on this forum in December. The only thing that concerns me is the discussion of the weakening of the MJO event... Most dynamical and statistical models will always show a weakening of the MJO when it tranverses around the Western Hemisphere. In this case, the dynamical models hold onto this MJO signal, but statistical approaches like Paul Roundy's will show a weakening of the MJO over the Western Hemisphere. This weakening is not a true weakening, and is a biproduct of the MJO speeding up over the Western Hemisphere, taking the shape of a strong convectively-coupled Kelvin wave. Therefore, space-time filtering techinques (like Paul's) will weaken MJO filtered anomalies and replace them with Kelvin filtered anomalies.

 

Something that comes to mind is the sudden stratospheric warming.. The Buffalo NWS allude to the easterly phase of the QBO favoring sudden stratospheric warming, which research shows to be a common relationship. However, the timing of the warming appears to align well with recent amplification of MJO convection over the Indian Ocean moving eastward over the Maritime Continent. Without the knoweldge of the sudden stratospheric warming event, Adam and I felt that we would still see a cold spell towards the end of Jan-February. Is this sudden warming event just a biproduct of extratropical Rossby wave dispersion from tropical convection associated with the amplified MJO towards the poles, disrupting the polar vortex?

 

With intraseasonal patterns in the tropics aligning with stratospheric variability, a cold spell over the US only seems inevitable in two-to-three weeks!

 

 

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

CTRain/QVector/NJ

 

Looks like we're all basically expecting the same thing or at least leaving the door open..... we see the cold shot come down around the 18th.  It hangs around for 5 or 6 days before it's going to moderate.  The period around the 24-28th the entire country may be moderating.   I'm willing to bet on that type of scenario, the question is, are we just teeing up a total reload as the Pac re-aligns and we get more cold behind it towards the end of the month that establishes.

 

 

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QVectorman

QVectorman

Posted
Posted

Lol well many are waiting till the weekend to see if volatility wanes and models clear the fog abit rather than trying to decipher meaning from conflicting model runs every 12 hrs

 

Ha there is NO consistency from run to run...completely different every run let alone model vs model. Was having a discussion in a broadcast met group on FB earlier tonight and everyone's head is spinning trying to keep up with all the different solutions that come out with each run of Euro and GFS. They have changed every run today and that's been the hallmark for the past week since the SSW started building in the strat. 

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

Well the trend in guidance seems to be for better snow chances but more of a glancing blow from the cold which is perfect as long as it stays around to our north. Euro,cmc, and now gfs (6z/9) is in board for at least a mixed event early in the change to cooler. So we await the inevitable shift at mid day. Flags staying close by. Should be a fun pattern for a time with a rinse repeat on the warmup in a couple of weeks I bet.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

Well the trend in guidance seems to be for better snow chances but more of a glancing blow from the cold which is perfect as long as it stays around to our north. Euro,cmc, and now gfs (6z/9) is in board for at least a mixed event early in the change to cooler. So we await the inevitable shift at mid day. Flags staying close by. Should be a fun pattern for a time with a rinse repeat on the warmup in a couple of weeks I bet.

Yeah things looking really, really good. The change happens AMOUT Jan14-15 right back into winter. For once it wasn't a step down process..Just boom..it's winter again

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