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Moving past first week of January General Discussion/banter


Baroclinic Zone

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Yeah it will...who knows when though. Asia missed out a lot back in some of our 1980s/early 1990s cold outbreaks...now they have gotten the lions share recently...they are having their coldest winters since the 1970s the past 5-6 years.

 

 

Whether we get a brutal arctic outbreak or not, I think we'll have plenty of snow chances coming up in this pattern.

 

I would prefer that we really don't get a brutal Arctic outbreak...while we still can get snow chances I would rather take my chances with a more slightly below average pattern or more near normal and have an active jet stream close by.  The pattern (at least right now) does certainly look favorable and it's coming at just about the perfect time of year as well...at least climo wise.  

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Yeah it will...who knows when though. Asia missed out a lot back in some of our 1980s/early 1990s cold outbreaks...now they have gotten the lions share recently...they are having their coldest winters since the 1970s the past 5-6 years.

 

 

Whether we get a brutal arctic outbreak or not, I think we'll have plenty of snow chances coming up in this pattern.

 

Yes..this

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GEFS are a flag. We'll see what 0Z says as it may be a burp in the 12z/18z suite and considering CMC/ECMWF. But the models are shifting in subtle ways that can have huge outcome differences. Gun to head I'd say gradient pattern but more robust than depicted on GEFS. I'm glad I'm 42N vs 39 but would feel better if I were at 44.

 

Hi Jerry.......... :)

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Yikes at the end of the GEFS from 18z...hopefully its a blip. Didn't look like this on the earlier runs today.

 

f324.gif

 

 

I think there's been some signs in this regard over the last few runs.  I'm hoping that people here are right and inaccurate progs are what's at work and that we're not already seeing the back end of the cold (which I think is the more likely case)

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Yeah it's one of the questions I have. Hopefully the 00z run improves.

 

The monster Pac ridge seems to be in retrogression to the west post 174 hours when you loop through the 18z GEFS. That's definitely the main problem. We could live with that PV setup if the Pac stayed as favorable as it is around Day 7-10.

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I think there's been some signs in this regard over the last few runs.  I'm hoping that people here are right and inaccurate progs are what's at work and that we're not already seeing the back end of the cold (which I think is the more likely case)

 

Earthlight's GEFS pattern is probably not horrific for New England. Seems gradient-ish with plenty of cold north of the border and an active southern stream?

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