Baroclinic Zone Posted January 8, 2013 Author Share Posted January 8, 2013 High of 42.1 here AWT... Plenty of snow left for all tell me what's left one week from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Actually global temperatures haven't increased much at all in the last 10 years as you can see on the Wood for Trees diagram: I don't think our sequence of warm departure months has anything to do with global warming, especially since global temperatures have been much colder in 2011-2013 than they were in 2002-2005 when we had much colder monthly departures, as well as extreme arctic months such as Jan/Feb 2003, Jan 2004, and Jan 2005. The last few years have not had a significant -EPO (what we need for arctic cold) and have had the lowest heights displaced towards Europe and around the Gulf of Alaska region. You're not going to get severe cold in the East with this 500mb map: Disagree. Warmth has increased worldwide by almost any metric, including ice out dates, growing season length etc... And if you want to look at various temp measurements, those have increased as well. There are obviously lags and superimposed cycles, but no denying the warmth. It is now observable on a daily weather scale just within most of our lifetimes. Take to climate forum for further discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Take it to the climo forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 There's a huge flip now for the past 2 runs of the GEFS. 12Z and now even stronger at 18Z. Gradient pattern which probably would be ok for some of us but look out below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 The only thing I can say w high confidence, next friday and friday nite will not be mild. And for me that means low confidence that I will be in a good mood. I hate the cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 And for me that means low confidence that I will be in a good mood. I hate the cold! I'd have low confidence for the next cple months wrt to your mood lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 tell me what's left one week from now. One week from now will be snowing or icing again in a wintry appeal..so I'll be sure to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 GEFS are a flag. We'll see what 0Z says as it may be a burp in the 12z/18z suite and considering CMC/ECMWF. But the models are shifting in subtle ways that can have huge outcome differences. Gun to head I'd say gradient pattern but more robust than depicted on GEFS. I'm glad I'm 42N vs 39 but would feel better if I were at 44. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 GEFS are a flag. We'll see what 0Z says as it may be a burp in the 12z/18z suite and considering CMC/ECMWF. But the models are shifting in subtle ways that can have huge outcome differences. Gun to head I'd say gradient pattern but more robust than depicted on GEFS. I'm glad I'm 42N vs 39 but would feel better if I were at 44. Dude..there's no need for flags. trust in Ryan and Wee Willie Winkie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 GEFS are a flag. We'll see what 0Z says as it may be a burp in the 12z/18z suite and considering CMC/ECMWF. But the models are shifting in subtle ways that can have huge outcome differences. Gun to head I'd say gradient pattern but more robust than depicted on GEFS. I'm glad I'm 42N vs 39 but would feel better if I were at 44. Dude..there's no need for flags. trust in Ryan and Wee Willie Winkie Flags all over the place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Flags all over the placeWhen Ryan goes cold and snowy I like our chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Flags all over the placeWhen Ryan goes cold and snowy I like our chances Maybe he was drunk on air..,you never know. Could have been a really boring day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Maybe he was drunk on air..,you never know. Could have been a really boring dayI always chuck deep. He rarely does. When he does look out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 I actually really hope that after this period of major warmth (for this time of year) we don't get into the brunt of the colder air. Hopefully we are just on the edge of the gradient of where the coldest anomalies are and where temperatures are more closer to normal. This would place the jet stream close to our region and would give us a much better chance for a more active pattern. If we get into a pattern where the brunt of the cold gets shoved into the Northeast, chances would be pretty high we'd be looking at a suppressed and boring pattern. Seeing the models flip-flopping in the medium to long range and looking at MJO forecasts it's quite unclear at this point about how exactly the pattern will evolve. If the MJO wave continues to be a strong signal as it works towards phases 7-8-1 and we see any type of -NAO/AO develop chances are we could see more extreme cold work into our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 the euro ens mean has the same pac retrogression as the 18z gfes, just delayed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Maybe he was drunk on air..,you never know. Could have been a really boring day My gut tells me Kevin is just taking his words out of context Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 I always chuck deep. He rarely does. When he does look out He had me sold on Oct 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 My gut tells me Kevin is just taking his words out of context He posted it here . Go ND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 He posted it here . Go ND Direct me to the post. How did UCONN do in their bowl game? Oh wait... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 I always chuck deep. He rarely does. When he does look out There may be some confusion and regional issues too. Don't get bent out of shape to what Phil is saying. I don't think anyone is saying no cold at all...just questioning how efficient and the longevity of this pattern will be. Something like the EC would probably be clipper like potentially which would be awesome. I'm sure the interior will grab some snow, but can this pattern last? I think it will get gradient like with a building Aleutian ridge after week 2....so we need that -NAO. It definitely holds potential and has my interest right now....but I'm not sure how pretty this will end up. I don't see a reason why we can't talk about both pros and cons. We all know the pros. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 If anyone wants access to any met papers let me know, I get everything through school for another few months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Flags all over the placeWhen Ryan goes cold and snowy I like our chances Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Kfs has no flags, sort of like the kbastardi model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 There may be some confusion and regional issues too. Don't get bent out of shape to what Phil is saying. I don't think anyone is saying no cold at all...just questioning how efficient and the longevity of this pattern will be. Something like the EC would probably be clipper like potentially which would be awesome. I'm sure the interior will grab some snow, but can this pattern last? I think it will get gradient like with a building Aleutian ridge after week 2....so we need that -NAO. It definitely holds potential and has my interest right now....but I'm not sure how pretty this will end up. I don't see a reason why we can't talk about both pros and cons. We all know the pros. At least if there is an aleutian ridge that eventually develops, it looks really poleward...that's basically what we had most of 2010-2011. The EPO was near neutral that winter, but a big poleward Aleutian ridge is what kept cross polar good enough for solid cold...the real epic cold though stayed over in Asian as has been the case for several years now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 I spent the day at Berkshire East, temps below freezing all day, they were making snow until noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 At least if there is an aleutian ridge that eventually develops, it looks really poleward...that's basically what we had most of 2010-2011. The EPO was near neutral that winter, but a big poleward Aleutian ridge is what kept cross polar good enough for solid cold...the real epic cold though stayed over in Asian as has been the case for several years now. Eventually the tables will turn and we'll see cold like that return to the US and Northeast...it's going to happen, just a matter of when and I would bet that happens sooner rather than later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 ... I don't see a reason why we can't talk about both pros and cons. Kevin only hears the pros and no cons. fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 There may be some confusion and regional issues too. Don't get bent out of shape to what Phil is saying. I don't think anyone is saying no cold at all...just questioning how efficient and the longevity of this pattern will be. Something like the EC would probably be clipper like potentially which would be awesome. I'm sure the interior will grab some snow, but can this pattern last? I think it will get gradient like with a building Aleutian ridge after week 2....so we need that -NAO. It definitely holds potential and has my interest right now....but I'm not sure how pretty this will end up. I don't see a reason why we can't talk about both pros and cons. We all know the pros. LOL..Huh? I'm not bent out of shape at all. We're heading into a great pattern. And I'm excited about it. That's all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Eventually the tables will turn and we'll see cold like that return to the US and Northeast...it's going to happen, just a matter of when and I would bet that happens sooner rather than later. Yeah it will...who knows when though. Asia missed out a lot back in some of our 1980s/early 1990s cold outbreaks...now they have gotten the lions share recently...they are having their coldest winters since the 1970s the past 5-6 years. Whether we get a brutal arctic outbreak or not, I think we'll have plenty of snow chances coming up in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 At least if there is an aleutian ridge that eventually develops, it looks really poleward...that's basically what we had most of 2010-2011. The EPO was near neutral that winter, but a big poleward Aleutian ridge is what kept cross polar good enough for solid cold...the real epic cold though stayed over in Asian as has been the case for several years now. There does seem to be support for a decent ridge there when you look above 500mb...unlike the stratospheric tornado that has been there before. I just hope the amplitude is sufficient enough and/or the NAO as modeled on the EC ensembles is for real. I think by the weekend we'll have a decent idea how things shake out, after this awful air is gone. And I fully expect the EC and GEFS to look different in the 11-15 day during every 12 hrs for a few more days anyways. Today was another example of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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