QVectorman Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 That's an awfully cold signal for the climo bottom of winter! I know! I thought this through and reviewed the data several times before I posted this haha. I'm always conservative but the data too me appears there is a good chance. But we had -23C the other day in northern Maine. And the 1/3 18z run of GFS had -30C 850 temps just north of the border. So its not impossible to achieve. Plus, I can't really pin point where the cold core would be, unfortunately data only suggests some where east of the Rockies to the Atlantic so it may only clip northern Maine or end up in Fargo...who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 The GWO analogs eluded to this second warm up all the way back on Dec. 14. It will be short lived with the warmest air being tempered by cooler/colder air arriving in the Jan 10-13 range moving into the Jan 15-25 range with much colder air. Based on GWO and strat. analogs I'm guessing the coldest core of the 850 temps behind the short waves for the Jan 12-19 time frame will remain warmer than -15C then be reinforced with a coldest core of -15 to -25C for Jan 21-25 with a core of cold in the -25 to -30C range possibly as cold as -36C at some point for Jan 25-30. With -33C sneaking over the northern plains or GLKS or NE. Of course the cores of the coldest air will probably remain north of the border but still one can extrapolate what kind of 850 temps would be making down to the central US with those types of 850 temps just north of border. With shortwaves arriving with more cold air for Jan 24-27 and Jan 27-29 and Feb 1-5. Though it appears the last week of Jan into Feb again would be the coldest air. Of course as stated before the caveat to these is how strong is the southerly flow ahead of these shortwaves that will also produce a spike in temps a day or two before the wave. So a strong wave will have a strong flow and could really spike temps for a day or two before it's arrive too. QVectorman, on 14 December 2012 - 04:54 PM, said: With the newest GWO numbers today the latest analogs indicate a 15-20F warm up in sfc temps Jan 3-Jan 6 compared to prior days highs across Midwest or NE (the Dec. 31-Jan 3 cold episode) and analogs suggest a stair stepped 15-20F temperature fall behind the warm up 1-2 days after that, meaning another spell of colder air Jan 5-8. I extended my outlook through Jan 8 on Dec. 14. I still feel comfortable with those dates and with the newest GWO analogs and latest 10 and 30 mb temp forecast it appears the time frame between Jan 8-10 will see a warm up over the east with a short wave moving through the east Jan 10-11 with cooler air dropping in behind it for Jan 10-13 across the MW/GLKS and then pockets of cooler air arriving Jan 15-19 time frame for the east followed by a second reinforcement of cooler air Jan 20-24. Wow great stuff thanks for bumping. I think this mirrors the thoughts of most here. If it does play out as planned that'll be a homerun you hit back in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 I think QVectorman's forecast makes sense with the PV being on the North American side and an increasingly strong -EPO and -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 wow at the -NAO on the Euro...570dm over Greenland. The NAO may be negative, fine, but that whole pattern construct in general looks dopey - You almsot never get a +4SD height anomaly over Greenland, and maintain a ridge along the EC at our latitudes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 This isn't bad at all next week..If this is warm in winter sign me up 05-01-2013 © ECMWF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 You had us naked by your second sentence Actually I made a mistake...that was my forecast and I hate to flip flop...a big pet peeve of mine but since part of this is in testing stage I had conflicting strat and GWO signals for the 10-13 time frame and I assumed that the strat signal for cold would over whelm the GWO signal for warmth and the cold air would dominate for that time frame. But the GFS seems to be hinting that the GWO will dominate instead for that time frame. Which would change it to warm from Jan 8-10 then a fall in 850 temps for 1 or 2 days after peak in 850 temps then a spike in 850 temps Jan 11-13 which would put us back on track to a fall in 850 temps 1 or 2 days after that which lines up with the Jan 15-19 time cold pocket that I have forecasted previously. I still stand by a shortwave tracking through the central/eastern US although it may be weak Jan 10-11 as I stated last month. Which again since this is still in testing and working out kinks...so the signal may be that the wave takes a track west of the Mississippi and into Canada putting the east in a region of strong southerly flow that ends up producing warmer 850 temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 NAO fighting PNA. Now the euros propensity to hold back the energy in the SW actually argues for a better solution for all of ne. However I think we are pulling dingle berries and calling them fruit if we call this pattern anything other than woeful for winter lovers 1/8-16. Jerry, the euro has been doing a much better job with the current pattern and we are not seeing any SW bias as in years past...at least down here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Actually I made a mistake...that was my forecast and I hate to flip flop...a big pet peeve of mine but since part of this is in testing stage I had conflicting strat and GWO signals for the 10-13 time frame and I assumed that the strat signal for cold would over whelm the GWO signal for warmth and the cold air would dominate for that time frame. But the GFS seems to be hinting that the GWO will dominate instead for that time frame. Which would change it to warm from Jan 7-10 then a fall in 850 temps for 1 or 2 days after peak in 850 temps then a spike in 850 temps Jan 11-13 which would put us back on track to a fall in 850 temps 1 or 2 days after that which lines up with the Jan 15-19 time cold pocket that I have forecasted previously. Ahh ok gotcha.. Well even if we have to wait till the 15th for deep winter return, that's a whole lot better than some other ideas we've been seeing and hearing tossed around. Thanks for the updates! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 I hope the torch gets muted for places like wa wa's sake. Has wa wa been making snow like gangbusters or slackin? Looking at the GFS out to 180, the highest temp I see at ORH is 41 and basically no precip. Even if a long range torch to 50 or whatever materializes it won't make much of a dent in man-made snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Temp has tickled down to 34.4 off a high earlier of 36.9 No difference between there and here today. 33.1/14 off of 35.5 (at 12:30). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Ahh ok gotcha.. Well even if we have to wait till the 15th for deep winter return, that's a whole lot better than some other ideas we've been seeing and hearing tossed around. Thanks for the updates! Commence throwing eggs LOL. But I had the same signal for the warmth 8-10 time frame and the new one 11-13 and if you notice both time frames a shortwave passes west of the MS up to Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Ahh ok gotcha.. Well even if we have to wait till the 15th for deep winter return, that's a whole lot better than some other ideas we've been seeing and hearing tossed around. Thanks for the updates! which ones? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 which ones? I don't who or what said them but there's been some that we have to wait till 19-20th or later for winter to return..Seems common theme today is to bring it in earlier around the 14-15th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 I don't who or what said them but there's been some that we have to wait till 19-20th or later for winter to return..Seems common theme today is to bring it in earlier around the 14-15thWhat do you define as a return to winter versus a return to deep winter? It will probably get more favorable for interior snow chances after the 15th, but I think "deep" winter will have to wait a little while longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 I did some measuring today and on avg there's between 9-10 inches of snow left OTG. About 6-7 of the 11 inch fluff bomb from last Saturday..so we've lost a decent amount to sublimation..and underneath that there's 3-4 inches of concrete from the previous storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 What do you define as a return to winter versus a return to deep winter? It will probably get more favorable for interior snow chances after the 15th, but I think "deep" winter will have to wait a little while longer. I would define deep winter as what we had Wed/thursday this week and normal winter what we had in the days from Xmas Eve to last Saturday's snow bomb. If we can get a winter storm event next weekend even if it;s a mixed event I consider that a monster win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Yea I don't want anyone to get confused I said 850's would stay warmer than -15C for the Jan 12-19 time frame which would at coldest 850 temps of -15C produce highs in the mid 20s if cloudy and lower 30's if sunny under the core of coldest air which again will probably stay north of the border. So more closer to normal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/hgtcomp.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Yea I don't want anyone to get confused I said 850's would stay warmer than -15C for the Jan 12-19 time frame which would at coldest 850 temps of -15C produce highs in the mid 20s if cloudy and lower 30's if sunny under the core of coldest air which again will probably stay north of the border. So more closer to normal temps. I'm okay with that--normal is good. 32.7/14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 33.4 the tickle downward continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Surprised Jerry did not know his posted deviations only equate to + 2 + 4 850s as I said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 I went for an afternoon walk today in Bolton Notch with my son. This is a local area that features an abandoned railroad grade that has been converted into a hiking path. During the winter the springs in the railroad cut freeze up with tons of ice. We came across lots of folks out hiking and X/C skiing. My son managed to score a 5' long icicle that we brought home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 The warm temps today made for some great sledding trails out back. Also primed the snow that hadn't blown off the roof for some sliding. 31.5/14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 I went for an afternoon walk today in Bolton Notch with my son. This is a local area that features an abandoned railroad grade that has been converted into a hiking path. During the winter the springs in the railroad cut freeze up with tons of ice. We came across lots of folks out hiking and X/C skiing. My son managed to score a 5' long icicle that we brought home. Nice looking ice--I know bolton--where's the notch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Nice looking ice--I know bolton--where's the notch? It's right where I-384 ends and Routes 44/6 split . The railroad cut runs underneath Route 44 and was a branch line of the Providence and Fishskill Railroad from Vernon to Willimantic that was abandoned in 1970. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 For pickles....a week since the last flake in my hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Looks like the temps will barely get out of the 30s through this "torch" for my house lol. Oops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Wow, never imagined so many posts for a little Jan. mild up. Nice deep breaths, this too shall pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Nice pics guys, nothing like Jan snowpack, that's what made 11 my all time favorite. Jerry, Bar Mitzvah here tonight, wow are these folks partying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spit Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Wow, never imagined so many posts for a little Jan. mild up. Nice deep breaths, this too shall pass. It was needed, a new thread / new outlooks. We are at a crucial point in the winter season. What happens in the next few weeks means alot. I love to run back 10 + or so hrs. and read it all, alot of knowledge and bs. Just have to pick it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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