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Moving past first week of January General Discussion/banter

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
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actually...sweet!

 

 

Yeah, no question...that "looks" tasty on the surface but that is a storm-shredder pattern if I've ever seen one.   ...if that's what one is after... 

 

flow is too compressed over the SE. that balanced mid level wind velocity is probably 100 to 120 kts.  Any S/W entering that trough is just lost in the maelstrom of that intense vortex.  

 

Reason why the heights over Florida and the adjacent SW Atlantic Basin are so high has to do with the ridge position being along or just off the West Coast of N/A. that needs to come inland a tad.  As is, there is a trough axis over old/new Mexico (~), and that is perpetually dumping additional sub-trop latent heat into those heights down stream.   

 

It's one of those scenarios where a +PNA still sucks.  

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Quincy

Quincy

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Just a quick observation that the Euro has displayed a major flip-flop if we look upstream to Greenland.

Here is a comparison of the 00z day 8-10 mean 500mb heights/anomalies compared to the 12z day 8-10 mean. I understand that there is a 12 hour time difference, but the effects for a 48 hour window would generally not be this extreme:

Courtesy: PSU Meteorology
post-533-0-66031100-1357680974_thumb.png

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

That is a very nice looking Euro ensemble pattern by D10. Almost '94-ish...not quite the magnitude we want north of AK, but not bad at all.

 

I think we'll start seeing some overrunning-ish events pop up in a 94-esque pattern as we get closer and can start resolving shortwaves. Probably not a big snowstorm pattern per se but you could have some nice events as long as the southern stream remains active and we can tap some GOM moisture and avoid suppression.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

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I think we'll start seeing some overrunning-ish events pop up in a 94-esque pattern as we get closer and can start resolving shortwaves. Probably not a big snowstorm pattern per se but you could have some nice events as long as the southern stream remains active and we can tap some GOM moisture and avoid suppression.

 

Oh how the weenies here pray.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Just a quick observation that the Euro has displayed a major flip-flop if we look upstream to Greenland.

Here is a comparison of the 00z day 8-10 mean 500mb heights/anomalies compared to the 12z day 8-10 mean. I understand that there is a 12 hour time difference, but the effects for a 48 hour window would generally not be this extreme:

Courtesy: PSU Meteorology

attachicon.gifeuroFlipFlop.png

 

Exactly!  Thank you - it's the point I made in jest to Scott a while ago, that the Euro is a giant POS with that NAO domain.  Can't be trusted... 

 

I suppose with the ensemble mean being somewhat supportive - eh... still.   That scale of reversal across a single run - I'm not sure why Mets like to bed with the Euro so readily when the GFS hasn't done this quite as vehemently.  

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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Exactly!  Thank you - it's the point I made in jest to Scott a while ago, that the Euro is a giant POS with that NAO domain.  Can't be trusted... 

 

I suppose with the ensemble mean being somewhat supportive - eh... still.   That scale of reversal across a single run - I'm not sure why Mets like to bed with the Euro so readily when the GFS hasn't done this quite as vehemently.  

 

I don't know if it's that as much as using a deterministic operational forecast in the D8-D10 time frame is just not a good idea. Flip-flops like that come with the territory. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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I don't know if it's that as much as using a deterministic operational forecast in the D8-D10 time frame is just not a good idea. Flip-flops like that come with the territory. 

 

I think you might be right; it's just the operational that's doing it - 

 

I was just reading NCEP's 8-14 day outlook text a while ago, and they are noting that the ECMWF ensemble mean is heads and shoulders above all other guidance pooling across that last 45 to 60 days!!  

 

Wasn't aware that was occurring, but that is very difficult to ignore. If there is something native about this winter's physics uniquely qualifying that product ensemble to predicting it, or whether it is simply a better tool, aside, that may be the way to go.  

 

That said, I think the ensemble has had some variance - but not nearly as erratic as the operational.   And it DOES come with the territory, because any one run by nature is going to be a outlier against a mean - rarely do they sit on top of one another out in time. 

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icebreaker5221

icebreaker5221

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Posted

I think you might be right; it's just the operational that's doing it - 

 

I was just reading NCEP's 8-14 day outlook text a while ago, and they are noting that the ECMWF ensemble mean is heads and shoulders above all other guidance pooling across that last 45 to 60 days!!  

 

Wasn't aware that was occurring, but that is very difficult to ignore. If there is something native about this winter's physics uniquely qualifying that product ensemble to predicting it, or whether it is simply a better tool, aside, that may be the way to go.  

 

That said, I think the ensemble has had some variance - but not nearly as erratic as the operational.   And it DOES come with the territory, because any one run by nature is going to be a outlier against a mean - rarely do they sit on top of one another out in time. 

 

And in fact, it's good that they don't, or the ensemble would be useless! ;)

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nzucker

nzucker

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I was in Bos January 2004 and I still remember printouts of the NHEM anomalies in the runup to that period.  I think you're right, it might get really cold.  I believe the temp correlations are viable, I just don't trust model predictions of the indices.  I've always had a problem with the causal predictiveness of modeled climate indices.  I think of them as markers of climate conditions, not drivers.  That's why I don't think collectively the Met community is so good at forecasting in the long range.

 

Every year we shift the goalposts a little further towards warm, so I will always bet on warm except in the short range.  But like you say, if things come together it can still get really really cold.

 

Actually global temperatures haven't increased much at all in the last 10 years as you can see on the Wood for Trees diagram:

post-475-0-34699900-1357687631_thumb.png

 

I don't think our sequence of warm departure months has anything to do with global warming, especially since global temperatures have been much colder in 2011-2013 than they were in 2002-2005 when we had much colder monthly departures, as well as extreme arctic months such as Jan/Feb 2003, Jan 2004, and Jan 2005. 

 

The last few years have not had a significant -EPO (what we need for arctic cold) and have had the lowest heights displaced towards Europe and around the Gulf of Alaska region. You're not going to get severe cold in the East with this 500mb map:

post-475-0-38323100-1357687871_thumb.png

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