eduggs Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Since Dec 1: ALB: 8 negative departure days, 29 positive departure days, and 1 zero departure day. BOS: 9 negative departure days (including -1, -1, -1, -2, -2), 25 positive departure days, and 4 zero departure days. ORH: 8 negative departure days (including -1, -1, -2, -2), 27 positive departure days, and 3 zero departure days. If I'm not mistaken, these climate normals and departures are based on the 30 year period from 1981 - 2010, which was the warmest 30 year period since record keeping began. Despite the upcoming warmup, with good radiational conditions a few nights, we might be able to keep the monthly and seasonal departures from getting really out of hand. ALB had one of its coldest nights of the year last night despite warm 850s and a stale snowpack. Global warming FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 I think some of that depends on location. Definitely, but overall temps have been mild too. It's more a question of longevity too I think. But anyways, and Will agrees too...I expect models to ying and yang from 12z to 00z...so hopefully Noreaster27 doesn't live and die by the runs. This could be a great cold source...if we have no moisture...boy what a kick in the pants...lol. I'm hoping that if it gets that cold...maybe it will be clipper-like. I really want this -NAO to develop, that will be key if the PNA tries to drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Feels like spring out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Feels like spring out there And this isn't even the torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Since Dec 1: ALB: 8 negative departure days, 29 positive departure days, and 1 zero departure day. BOS: 9 negative departure days (including -1, -1, -1, -2, -2), 25 positive departure days, and 4 zero departure days. ORH: 8 negative departure days (including -1, -1, -2, -2), 27 positive departure days, and 3 zero departure days. If I'm not mistaken, these climate normals and departures are based on the 30 year period from 1981 - 2010, which was the warmest 30 year period since record keeping began. Despite the upcoming warmup, with good radiational conditions a few nights, we might be able to keep the monthly and seasonal departures from getting really out of hand. ALB had one of its coldest nights of the year last night despite warm 850s and a stale snowpack. Global warming FTW. The departures will get sliced pretty hard I think...esp if we get any of that cold that is being dumped from NW Canada and AK into southern Canada and the plains. Some of the stations in AK had their coldest November/December couplet on record...not an easy place to break cold records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 I'm surprised noreaster27 isn't in here to let us know that the OP Euro run has a big Greenland block in the long range. To give us the good news that the 3 consecutive runs of a +NAO streak is over. is that not a perfect block/-NAO at days 9/10 on the euro (with a storm brewing near the gulf)....??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 is that not a perfect block/-NAO at days 9/10 on the euro (with a storm brewing near the gulf)....??? It looks like it would be good for the Mid-atlantic. We risk suppression on that setup in this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 It looks like it would be good for the Mid-atlantic. We risk suppression on that setup in this region. we risk being too far north as well...i presume. Looks pretty, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Tuesday's storm seems to have a wintry appeal... especially inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 It looks like it would be good for the Mid-atlantic. We risk suppression on that setup in this region. Suppression leads to depression. Friends don't let friends be suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Tuesday's storm seems to have a wintry appeal... especially inland.Yes we've been discussing this appeal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 High temperature here of 42F with full sunshine. Not much snowmelt just yet, hopefully some melts away on wednesday to allow for Christmas decoration removal. The forecast here for thursday/friday right now from the NWS is for high's near 40F. not exactly very warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Model Ying and Yang with the EC ensembles. Now much better with the -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 High was 44F here in the low elevations of Shrewsbury. Snow is still about 6-7" in most areas but sun torched areas around trees and near main roads are showing the first grass in almost two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Yes we've been discussing this appeal Some have... you seem hung up on your dwindling snowpack lol. As far as Tuesday the op GFS is definitely milder/west than its ensemble members. Looking decent for something here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Model Ying and Yang with the EC ensembles. Now much better with the -NAO. Cold push is now well within D10 at least. I feel good about a pretty impressive switch to cold. Some wintry chances but the concern is obviously suppression and will depend on downstream blocking and the orientation of flow around PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 The departures will get sliced pretty hard I think...esp if we get any of that cold that is being dumped from NW Canada and AK into southern Canada and the plains. Some of the stations in AK had their coldest November/December couplet on record...not an easy place to break cold records. I really hope so, but I would bet against it. It seems more likely we remain at the periphery of the serious cold. Even with the muted warmup, it's so much easier to get significant warm depatures than cold. And that's with the added advantage of modern climate norms. We've had one cold day so far this winter, aided by perfect radiational conditions and nighttime lows well into negative territory. As many have said, in winter you need the very cold lows to record significant negative departures. I don't see evidence of that happening in the foreseeable future. The modestly cold stormy period at the end of Dec was slightly above normal temp wise (clouds, wind, storms not good for cold). We'd need serious cold to cut into the departures (and probably dry conditions), and unlike at high latitudes or in the deep interior, it just doesn't seem to get sustained cold anymore at midlatitudes within a few hundred miles of the Ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 High temperature here of 42F with full sunshine. Not much snowmelt just yet, hopefully some melts away on wednesday to allow for Christmas decoration removal. The forecast here for thursday/friday right now from the NWS is for high's near 40F. not exactly very warm.Yeah just like we figured today 41-42 for a high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Some have... you seem hung up on your dwindling snowpack lol. As far as Tuesday the op GFS is definitely milder/west than its ensemble members. Looking decent for something here. Go back and read . Will Scooter and I are the ones discussing with me being the ringleader. I may get my long awaited ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 I really hope so, but I would bet against it. It seems more likely we remain at the periphery of the serious cold. Even with the muted warmup, it's so much easier to get significant warm depatures than cold. And that's with the added advantage of modern climate norms. We've had one cold day so far this winter, aided by perfect radiational conditions and nighttime lows well into negative territory. As many have said, in winter you need the very cold lows to record significant negative departures. I don't see evidence of that happening in the foreseeable future. The modestly cold stormy period at the end of Dec was slightly above normal temp wise (clouds, wind, storms not good for cold). We'd need serious cold to cut into the departures (and probably dry conditions), and unlike at high latitudes or in the deep interior, it just doesn't seem to get sustained cold anymore at midlatitudes within a few hundred miles of the Ocean. -EPO is good for cold in our area. We haven't had much of a -EPO since 2009. We'll get good cold if the pattern is right even right to the coast...there is a reason Boston got its coldest January on record in 2004 and that many of us put up a top 10 coldest January in 2009 and 2003 since 1950. We'll see if the EPO is reliable enough this time around to give us a serious cold outbreak...its possible we stay on the fringes which would probably be good for snow. But I think we are going to get at leats one solid uppercut from the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Tuesday's storm seems to have a wintry appeal... especially inland. With that relatively static trof allignment, I would think much of next week has some wintry potential. We could be stradling the boundary between airmasses for a few days. A high gradient regional pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 I'd rather cold then torch that's me. Fire up the fireplace and put the feet up Right there with you, Jay. Unfortuantley, today was not one of those days. 38.6/23. Managed to get up to 40.5 at 2:00p.m.--I'll have to see how long I was above that threshold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 High temperature here of 42F with full sunshine. Not much snowmelt just yet, hopefully some melts away on wednesday to allow for Christmas decoration removal. The forecast here for thursday/friday right now from the NWS is for high's near 40F. not exactly very warm.don't worry-by Sunday you'll have no problem. Friday's rain will wash some away too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 -EPO is good for cold in our area. We haven't had much of a -EPO since 2009. We'll get good cold if the pattern is right even right to the coast...there is a reason Boston got its coldest January on record in 2004 and that many of us put up a top 10 coldest January in 2009 and 2003 since 1950. We'll see if the EPO is reliable enough this time around to give us a serious cold outbreak...its possible we stay on the fringes which would probably be good for snow. But I think we are going to get at leats one solid uppercut from the cold. I was in Bos January 2004 and I still remember printouts of the NHEM anomalies in the runup to that period. I think you're right, it might get really cold. I believe the temp correlations are viable, I just don't trust model predictions of the indices. I've always had a problem with the causal predictiveness of modeled climate indices. I think of them as markers of climate conditions, not drivers. That's why I don't think collectively the Met community is so good at forecasting in the long range. Every year we shift the goalposts a little further towards warm, so I will always bet on warm except in the short range. But like you say, if things come together it can still get really really cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Model Ying and Yang with the EC ensembles. Now much better with the -NAO. Called it! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 OT, but how about the extreme heat in Australia, 47.2C+, wow!! New colors needed for temperature scale: http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/lookout/australia-weather-heats-colors-added-weather-map-195717230.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 don't worry-by Sunday you'll have no problem. Friday's rain will wash some away too Friday looks cold with temps in the 30's. The weekend looks promising for snowmelt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 This one goes out to all those adoring winter weather fans, peace: http://www.cnn.com/2013/01/08/us/extreme-weather/index.html?hpt=hp_t2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Balls cold next thurs on the Euro, 486dm in Northern Maine 12z gfs has 481, with H8 down to -34C. Add some good radiational cooling to that and Big Black River may reset the record. (1% chance?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Euro ensemble looks pretty damned nice around the D10 timeframe. Suppression the worry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.