Typhoon Tip Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 the gfs looked too warm synoptically...but if the confluence over nova scotia is stronger...than maybe that canadian high can push a bit farther south. There's quite a battle with a big Atlantic high at the same time. i'm more than less accounting for typical GFS boundary layer warm bias for DJF with antecedent polar fropas. doesn't take a whole heck of a lot of advection to get the air mass conditional in the 2-meter... 27F DP with temps around 40F might appear warm but when that column saturates, and WAA terms are weak, your wet bulb is actually on the lower side of that range. but of course, you are spot on about the confluence assisting... just a subtle push more from that in the lower mass fields and that definitely would be a clearer indicator for ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 GEFS says RNA fights back long term...lol you got me Jer' huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 In other news, Meriden, CT is up to 48F and even Hartford is 47. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 you got me Jer' huh? New types of indices DNA and RNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 I'm surprised noreaster27 isn't in here to let us know that the OP Euro run has a big Greenland block in the long range. To give us the good news that the 3 consecutive runs of a +NAO streak is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Still only 30 here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 I'm surprised noreaster27 isn't in here to let us know that the OP Euro run has a big Greenland block in the long range. To give us the good news that the 3 consecutive runs of a +NAO streak is over.impressive flip, hopefully its the start of a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 I'm surprised noreaster27 isn't in here to let us know that the OP Euro run has a big Greenland block in the long range. To give us the good news that the 3 consecutive runs of a +NAO streak is over. Took the words out of my mouth (or out of my fingers...lol..) Dropping off the charts on this OP run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 It just shows the capricious nature of NAO caclulations. It's not like there wasn't NA blcoking in prior runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 2M temps on the Euro for Monday get to 0C from here to ORH as that wave comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 I bet GEFS and euro ens trade places today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 It just shows the capricious nature of NAO caclulations. It's not like there wasn't NA blcoking in prior runs.It was way east based on the 0z run compared to the 12z run, huge difference in heights over greenland. Its still in la la land and this will contiune to change a ton, im just watching the trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 It was way east based on the 0z run compared to the 12z run, huge difference in heights over greenland. I know but it actually was in a decent place for us. Now we need the RNA...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 That Wednesday system definitely has potential in the interior. That looks like some decent frozen there on that run verbatim. you realize that's historic cold flirting with the area.... Looks slightly shunted east, but eh - who cares about details at this range. Just having that appeal is sick! also, man, the operational Euro is a giant piece of sh*t when it comes to dealing with the NAO domain... 3 runs it has a nice block, then...3 runs, 0 block, now? the great wall of atmospheric china up there. pick one and stick with it - jesus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Noreaster27 used to be a pretty okay poster idk now he seems so depressing haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Noreaster27 used to be a pretty okay poster idk now he seems so depressing haha He needs to change his user name to something involving torch, rain, or Alaskan vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 you realize that's historic cold flirting with the area.... Looks slightly shunted east, but eh - who cares about details at this range. Just having that appeal is sick! also, man, the operational Euro is a giant piece of sh*t when it comes to dealing with the NAO domain... 3 runs it has a nice block, then...3 runs, 0 block, now? the great wall of atmospheric china up there. pick one and stick with it - jesus Stay the course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 He needs to change his user name to something involving torch, rain, or Alaskan vortex.Warm BL? Torch king? Mr. Negativity? +NAO? Hey noreaster I'm kidding by the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Stay the course Think I'm on board for big cold and big turnaround. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Think I'm on board for big cold and big turnaround.****e or get off the pot. Go cold or go home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 We just need to survive the next few days...38.9F for the high from the meso-site near my house. Could be a little worse at my house itself. Would be good to return to winter midweek next week, if only for the temps with occasional chances at precip. I think we have a couple of good storms toward the end of the month. Fickle things these indicies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 ****e or get off the pot. Go cold or go home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Your flags are tossed .. Like the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Your flags are tossed .. Like the NAM What does the KURO say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Only hit 37F here today. Afternoon clouds ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 What does the KURO say?Big cold big snows.. Big big cold big big snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Big cold big snows.. Big big cold big big snows Big big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Your flags are tossed .. Like the NAM They've been money. I'm hopeful we get some winter don't get me wrong...but I think there are some questions. I know that goes against your line of thinking, but it's worked out well so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 I agree with Scott about the model volatility...that's a tough pattern to figure out next week with all the nuances of the positively tilted trough with a ton of moisture and energy available. I do think one of those waves though along it has a chance to be something in terms of winter wx. Its possible too that it could be a warm storm to the west, but I think the trend of seeing the northern side of that boundary sink south is a good one. Hopefully it looks even better by the time we get to this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 They've been money. I'm hopeful we get some winter don't get me wrong...but I think there are some questions. I know that goes against your line of thinking, but it's worked out well so far.I think some of that depends on location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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