tombo82685 Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 not a good picture on any of those, the trend is not our friend. Models were much much stronger with the wave into phase 7 a few days ago and hence stronger with the +PNA and -NAO. If one is looking at the trends over the past 4 days its not good. read our medium/long range thread. Adam and another met explains why the models are showing it looping back to the COD, when it probably won't be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Im not even sure my place hits 41 today. Will check when get home Which of these Tolland stations is closest to you? It's pretty ugly out there. Up here too, for that matter. 37.0/25--drip, drip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Meaning? Days and days, brah... Fah-la-la-la-la. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 The OP GFS is the slowest out of all the GEFS members with the front early next week and by a good amount too compared to most of them. Most of the members have a pretty wintry appeal for Tuesday into Wednesday. This is more in line with the Euro idea. Remains to be seen though if we trend back the other way. The slower idea could be right..esp if we get a piece of energy to amplify near the base of the trough before the front can pass us. The high to our north is pretty potent on most guidance though which argues for good cold air drainage at the sfc anyway...regardless of the mid-levels cool off slower/faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 GFS is all by its lonesome with that silly Tuesday fropA. Everything has it tearing thru on Monday. In progressive pattern this week faster makes sense. nothing has it ripping through at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Yeah I'm guessing a 42 or so I'll say 44. You'll be 42 within the next 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 nothing has it ripping through at all.Euro is 24+ hours faster. That's ripping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Days and days, brah... Fah-la-la-la-la. Figured as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 nothing has it ripping through at all. Yeah, this is definitely more of a slow ooze vs. a Jan. 2007 redux. The bleeding cold and attendant systems will lead to one hell of a wet week over the TN Valley/Texarcana... sheesh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 48.5 here IMBY now. Rapid rise the past hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Looks to me like some kind of surface front slips through Upstate NY and much of NE around Sunday Night. Then the wave (s) move along it and I wonder if ice is a risk in some areas Monday and Tuesday. the latest gfs delays the polar fropa until next tuesday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 48.5 here IMBY now. Rapid rise the past hour.You miss your torch twin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Euro is 24+ hours faster. That's ripping the 00z run of the euro was earlier yes. and it actually pushed it offshore (nothing else really does that too well). but it's not like the winds flip NW and winter comes barreling in with plummeting temps behind the boundary. you're making it sound like we're back to "deep winter" by monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yukon Cornelius Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 40.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 the 00z run of the euro was earlier yes. and it actually pushed it offshore (nothing else really does that too well). but it's not like the winds flip NW and winter comes barreling in with plummeting temps behind the boundary. you're making it sound like we're back to "deep winter" by monday night.I meant more timing wise. But by Minday evening the interior should be below 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 GEFS says RNA fights back long term...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 You miss your torch twin? LOL. The mild temps are real though. Enjoy the weather--it's the only weather you've got. Skyrocketed to 38.1/25. I'm laughing so I won't cry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 This map looks like it show a front has slipped south of us early on Monday, albeit very shallow cold air of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 You miss your torch twin?LOL-I think he's out turning soil or something (remember that from last January!) I'm kind of enjoying it-snow is mostly gone here, so no worry about that, no chances for snow for another week so might as well be warm. Lower Nat Gas bill too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 LOL-I think he's out turning soil or something (remember that from last January!) I'm kind of enjoying it-snow is mostly gone here, so no worry about that, no chances for snow for another week so might as well be wLarm. Lower Nat Gas bill too... Lol I do remember that. He said he was tilling the garden in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 8, 2013 Author Share Posted January 8, 2013 47/28 January thaw is on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 ORH up to 40F at 1pm. First 40F temp since December 21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 ORH up to 40F at 1pm. First 40F temp since December 21.how much snow left up that way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 how much snow left up that way? I'm working in BOS today but we had very little melt yesterday, so it looked pretty much the same as the pics I posted on Sunday. Maybe 8-10" left on the ground except the all-day sun torched SE facing areas which might be 4-6". Today should be the first day where I see some visual effect of the thaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Anyone want to talk about the massive GEFS shift beyond d10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Anyone want to talk about the massive GEFS shift beyond d10? what about it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Anyone want to talk about the massive GEFS shift beyond d10? Yeah that's the -PNA trying to return. Heights rise in the east, but heights also rose near AK quite a bit. Like you said, just wait until the end of the weekend and keep flags handy. This whole thing screams of model volatility too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 how much snow left up that way? I even still had full coverage when I left this morning...although today is going to make a large dent unfortunately... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 LOL-I think he's out turning soil or something (remember that from last January!) I'm kind of enjoying it-snow is mostly gone here, so no worry about that, no chances for snow for another week so might as well be warm. Lower Nat Gas bill too... Classic stuff right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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