ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Laugh now but it's fact whether we admit or not. At any rate I'm going to enjoy the next 6 weeks or so of winter wx. I take your "facts" about as seriously as the OP GFS at day 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 there was a near KU in march 09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 I take your "facts" about as seriously as the OP GFS at day 12. So IYO March will become wintry and snowy again in upcoming years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 and severe weather In Missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 lol I actually kind of agree with that though. Right around Feb 11, every year, I notice the same thing .... a parked car in a parking lot starts heating up inside on sunny days with much more proficiency then any date between Nov 11 and Feb 11. Inside those two dates, the sun is less effectual at heating interiors - though it does heat some. By Feb 15, forget it - Why that is significant is purely for the insolation numbers. It speaks volumes to the sun as being winter's nemesis almost immediately upon that date. That certainly varies by latitude. Obviously, some of the greatest storms in history have taken place between Feb 15 and Mar 15, or even later - duh. But, their rarity makes them so far less dependable than the annual migration back N of solar insolation; the objective realist senses the spring. Once I start doing that, the excitement at seeing a stem-wound bomb on the charts really starts to simmer down for me. Almost an after thought by the end of that month. I start looking at seasonals for the ensuing warm season, gardening planning, everything else that goes along with warm season. Don't get me wrong. I can turn it back on if the pattern really warrants it, but it just seems so rare (particularly now in this new climate paradigm) that it's really easy to disconnect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 I almost see this pattern as two ways. Dissapointment and epic. I don't think there is a lot of room for normal climo snow, but I could be wrong, This has the look to deliver the goods, or just come so close, but no cigar. My issue is that I think we may see the PNA try to tank a little towards the end of week two, and this is when we'll need the -NAO. If that is missing, then it could get tougher for winter around here. I'm just not sold on this pattern. Perhaps it works out further inland, but my flags are up. i sense we are on the same page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 45 here. Snow piles hanging on as well as cover on north sides of structures, but mostly bare ground now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 What are mets thoughts on how big 4 end Jan? Above or below normal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 This does a lot to explain the model differences in the 11-15 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 What are mets thoughts on how big 4 end Jan? Above or below normal? i'd take above. mainly because i don't see the second half of the month being able to counter the next 8-10 days with the same magnitude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 March is a month that has a high variance...but there's been no trend of snowfall decrease. There's been a couple poor years...but march 09, march 07 and march 05 were above normal in the snowfall, the last 3 years have been below normal, march 10, 11, and 12. The mid 1980s had below snowfall in March for 7 straight years...I'd hate to see what Kevin would have thought then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 This does a lot to explain the model differences in the 11-15 day. not a good picture on any of those, the trend is not our friend. Models were much much stronger with the wave into phase 7 a few days ago and hence stronger with the +PNA and -NAO. If one is looking at the trends over the past 4 days its not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 i'd take above. mainly because i don't see the second half of the month being able to counter the next 8-10 days with the same magnitude yeah, i'd go above too. midwest/lakes has a decent chance at below since the cooler air gets there sooner, and should have greater magnitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 March is a month that has a high variance...but there's been no trend of snowfall decrease. There's been a couple poor years...but march 09, march 07 and march 05 were above normal in the snowfall, the last 3 years have been below normal, march 10, 11, and 12. The mid 1980s had below snowfall in March for 7 straight years...I'd hate to see what Kevin would have thought then. March 09 was a big event on March 1st if I'm not mistaken so that one is right on the edge... 2007 had the St patty's deal. Not sure about 2005, but there might have been a mid month flash freeze storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 not a good picture on any of those, the trend is not our friend. Models were much much stronger with the wave into phase 7 a few days ago and hence stronger with the +PNA and -NAO. If one is looking at the trends over the past 4 days its not good.You don't even know what you're looking at there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 The MJO is only one piece of the puzzle. I believe we are only talking about 2C or so with re: warming with the MJO in the phases 4, 5, 6. If the EPO and -NAO on your side...I'd bet you'd still eventually average colder than normal in those phases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 March 09 was a big event on March 1st if I'm not mistaken so that one is right on the edge... 2007 had the St patty's deal. Not sure about 2005, but there might have been a mid month flash freeze storm? sure...but that's how march is. There aren't a lot of marchs were you're in the deep freeze the whole month. You get some chances at big storms and what not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 not a good picture on any of those, the trend is not our friend. well phase 7 correlates to a +PNA and probably a large reason why the gefs are much colder...If you follow the ecmwf line there you can also follow why the euro ensembles bring a cold shot into the northeast centered around day 10 and then rotate it out with a warmer look by day 15...I dont really have a problem with what you said in your previous post, but I do think the NAO holds more hope then you give credit for going forward. Maybe east based development in the meantime and trending better near the end of the month. So things do not look promising for snow in our neck of the woods probably for the next 2-3 weeks at least, but just remember these guys up in new england can come through much easier than us, so the same discussion usually doesnt apply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 the -pna is not super negative, I mean the AK ridge extends into the PNA region of BC and the Yukon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 If you look at Boston's snowfall stats...you can see March has a right-tailed distribution. It appears there actually more below normal Marchs than above...but some big months pulling the mean higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 What are mets thoughts on how big 4 end Jan? Above or below normal Above... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 the latest gfs delays the polar fropa until next tuesday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 the latest gfs delays the polar fropa until next tuesday nightit was always tue on the GFS-Euro had it monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Euro had been real consistent with the arctic front coming thru on Monday. Run after run. Ens support it too which is good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Euro had been real consistent with the arctic front coming thru on Monday. Run after run. Ens support it too which is goodit's not an arctic front. the -20c h85 contour stays well NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Yes its a polar front. Forky what's ur take on the polar front timing. U leaning toward mon or tue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 I've always felt the euro was too fast for us and the serious winter waits till MLK weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Yes its a polar front. Forky what's ur take on the polar front timing. U leaning toward mon or tue? tuesday. the SE ridge is strong and will be tough to dislodge. i know ctblizz expects a flash freeze and immediate cold/snow but it's not going to happen that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 holy epic cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 what's the difference b/w a polar and Arctic front? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.