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Moving past first week of January General Discussion/banter

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted

What area is it Mike? Around Bethal?

 

Or the Stoneham/Albany side of WMNF?

 

The narrow valley might be good for radiation if one is near where it flattens out, rather than where the watercourse is still strongly tilted, allowing the cold to continue downhill.  Aspect would be important, too, for potential orographic enhancement from synoptic events (if east facing) or upslope/downslope, which I'll leave to those with more experience and knowledge.  However, even at "only" 800', a foothills location around there ought to start at about 90"/yr avg and go upward from there depending on local geography.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

Or the Stoneham/Albany side of WMNF?

 

The narrow valley might be good for radiation if one is near where it flattens out, rather than where the watercourse is still strongly tilted, allowing the cold to continue downhill.  Aspect would be important, too, for potential orographic enhancement from synoptic events (if east facing) or upslope/downslope, which I'll leave to those with more experience and knowledge.  However, even at "only" 800', a foothills location around there ought to start at about 90"/yr avg and go upward from there depending on local geography.

 

I was thinking the starting point would be about 90" or so--I guessed well!  I'm not sure exactly how it's situated on the watercourse, but suspect it's on the 'flattened out' side of the spectrum.  Since the river runs through the property, easy accss to fishing ftw.  Probably a lot of unwanted visitors as well.  The trade-offs.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

I think we are already starting to see which way this is going.

Expect the change, hope its for more than a week

Yeah I'm talking not if but how much and for how long. I mean by the weekend we hopefully will know whether or not this regime shift is transient like the warmth is.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

ding ding ding.

 

We used to own property up there but we sold it before we could build as having a new daughter took priority!

 

My wife is also looking at picking something up on the mid-coast.  I have this sneaking suspicion she will win out (funny how wives do that).  Whatever (and if) we get, it will be used for both rental and personal use.

 

Lots of posts recently by people saying they do not want exceptional cold unless there's snow involved.  Fully agree on wanting snow, but I'll take the exceptional wintery weather regardless of its ilk.

 

23.7/19

 

 

 

lol, The White Mountain National Forrest was the giveaway, I frequented that area back in the 80's, That is a decent area for snow, Actually that whole foothill corridor from IZG to RUM

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

Yeah I'm talking not if but how much and for how long. I mean by the weekend we hopefully will know whether or not this regime shift is transient like the warmth is.

Twinkie to head I would say transient but a flip to more frequent bursts of wintry weather. The first shot will be pretty strong. I think we go back to what we had with the 0c like flirting with NJ by 1/25 or so

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

Yeah the ensembles are all showing a distinct E based -NAO which looks reasonable based on the support from the warming in the stratosphere above it. It may not be negative the entire time, but we should see our bouts...oscillating NAO isn't necessarily a bad thing for us anyway when we have some good cold available.

 

ossilating east based nao could be awesome up here and for all of new england.  I'm very excited about the next 3 weeks.  working in nyc this week and early next then home for a stretch and then to London jan 20-23 to maybe catch some cold and snow there.  Then home jan 23 for 10 days.  I anticipate an epic stretch at least up here.

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wxmanmitch

wxmanmitch

Posted
Posted

Scott (PF) might be in the best position to answer this--but anyone who can opine.........

 

My wife and I are looking at grabbing a place in ME again.  One of the places in the western hills abutting the White Mountain National Forest.  I'm trying to get a sense of how it might fare snow-wise.

 

Here's the deal--it's an an upslope along the eastern boundary of the NF.  So, so far so good.  But--it's in a very narrow, fairly steep river valley so it's elevation is only about 800 ft.  Spitting distance (less than two miles) in all directions to 1200' plus and progressively  upward from there as you head deeper  into the whites of NH.  My guess is that the narrowness of the gorge won't hinder any upslope potential in the snowfall that the surrounding hills would experience.

 

I have to think this place would radiate like a mother.

 

What's your take on that description?

 

 

That area tends to do very well during SWFEs due to CAD. It holds the cold beautifully, a heck of a lot better than this area. Actually, you're currently in one of the better CAD spots locally, but it's nothing like the mountains of W ME. Depending on the exact elevation and latitude, it's probably 90-100" a year around there. That area will downslope in W to NW flows, so don't expect to cash in with CAA upslope and wrap around, but upslopes on E to SE flows.

 

Midcoast Maine can be a tough spot for snow, especially the area from Rockland to Belfast. Rockland probably only averages about 55" a winter, so it would be a step down from where you are now. Brunswick and Bath hold the cold a little better and average around 70" per year. Of course, this decreases as you head down the peninsulas toward Harpswell, Phippsburg, or Boothbay Harbor with around 55" at the southern tips. 

 

Midcoast Maine is one of my favorite areas of New England even though it's not one of the best snow spots. Wherever you end up, I don't want to lose a W MA poster, but good luck to you.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

That area tends to do very well during SWFEs due to CAD. It holds the cold beautifully, a heck of a lot better than this area. Actually, you're currently in one of the better CAD spots locally, but it's nothing like the mountains of W ME. Depending on the exact elevation and latitude, it's probably 90-100" a year around there. That area will downslope in W to NW flows, so don't expect to cash in with CAA upslope and wrap around, but upslopes on E to SE flows.

 

Midcoast Maine can be a tough spot for snow, especially the area from Rockland to Belfast. Rockland probably only averages about 55" a winter, so it would be a step down from where you are now. Brunswick and Bath hold the cold a little better and average around 70" per year. Of course, this decreases as you head down the peninsulas toward Harpswell, Phippsburg, or Boothbay Harbor with around 55" at the southern tips. 

 

Midcoast Maine is one of my favorite areas of New England even though it's not one of the best snow spots. Wherever you end up, I don't want to lose a W MA poster, but good luck to you.

 

I know the midcoast very well.  We had lived in Bath for 3-4 years prior to moving to the Pit 5 years ago.  I was on the south end of Bath (near Jeb).  We'd lose power everytime there was a breeze.  North end never would.

 

The mid-coast option is not tied to winter--more summer.  It's in Camden.  And, we're not moving there--this would be for vacation and vacation-rental.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

Lets just fast forward to May...70s and sun...

 

 

There's going to be a few shots at snow during this next cold shot.  Probably 2 anyway.  Expectations I think have to be realistic, the patterns are likely to keep changing.  Again JMHO.  The hope is that the air we have behind this next cold shot isn't the stale musty refrigerator air we had before but instead the bleed off of the cold air in Canada.  

 

IF we are able to get lows running favorable tracks after this cold shot I think the ambient air will be much better for most of you.  See-saw type of weather this winter but I think after this plunge next week at least we'll be starting from an average position that's 5-10 colder than last time.

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NorEastermass128

NorEastermass128

Posted
Posted

There's going to be a few shots at snow during this next cold shot.  Probably 2 anyway.  Expectations I think have to be realistic, the patterns are likely to keep changing.  Again JMHO.  The hope is that the air we have behind this next cold shot isn't the stale musty refrigerator air we had before but instead the bleed off of the cold air in Canada.  

 

IF we are able to get lows running favorable tracks after this cold shot I think the ambient air will be much better for most of you.  See-saw type of weather this winter but I think after this plunge next week at least we'll be starting from an average position that's 5-10 colder than last time.

Agreed.  We're into our coldest climo now.  Averages in E MA in the low to middle 30s.  SST's should cool too, which should help us into FEB.  

 

I'm just amazed that BOS is only at 3.8 for the year so far still.

 
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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Scooter what you think about snow mid week next week?

 

I'm not sold on snow. I think it could be a mixed event for the interior..maybe far interior. The euro ensembles were warmer than the op for that. I would lean against snow right now, but the odds certainly are not zero.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

I almost see this pattern as two ways. Dissapointment and epic. I don't think there is a lot of room for normal climo snow, but I could be wrong, This has the look to deliver the goods, or just come so close, but no cigar. My issue is that I think we may see the PNA try to tank a little towards the end of week two, and this is when we'll need the -NAO. If that is missing, then it could get tougher for winter around here. I'm just not sold on this pattern. Perhaps it works out further inland, but my flags are up.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Ryan likes AOB for 2nd half of Jan thru Feb. Gibbs likes N for Feb. Exactly what we want. We look golden overall for the next 6 weeks.

End of Feb we lose blocking and a - PNA. You know what that means for Morch right?

 

I suppose the one thing that may mute Morch is any potential blocking from the warming in the stratosphere, but it seems like guidance calls for Morch.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

I suppose the one thing that may mute Morch is any potential blocking from the warming in the stratosphere, but it seems like guidance calls for Morch.

As much as I hate it its time to man up and admit that month is lost forever. That's a big part of the reason why I like to have winter start early because once we near the end of Feb it's over. Thankfully this year we had a great Nov and great last 10 days of Dec
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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

As much as I hate it its time to man up and admit that month is lost forever. That's a big part of the reason why I like to have winter start early because once we near the end of Feb it's over. Thankfully this year we had a great Nov and great last 10 days of Dec

 

 

 

lol

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