Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 I thnk the turkey stuff s frm a few years ago? Haven't seen them lately. With the mild-up please be careful....apparently these are some angry birds http://boston.cbslocal.com/2012/11/21/turkey-complaints-on-the-rise-in-brookline/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 mild 26 here, but 12 in the valley just a mile away at 600' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 With the mild-up please be careful....apparently these are some angry birds http://boston.cbslocal.com/2012/11/21/turkey-complaints-on-the-rise-in-brookline/ Parking lot near my place (in Brookline), March 2009... they were amusingly territorial: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 OP GFS just slowed the front down vs the 12z, 1 more cutter on the 15th. We'll see what happens on the GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 OP GFS just slowed the front down vs the 12z. We'll see what happens. I'm holding to 1/18 for the good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 I'm holding to 1/18 for the good stuff. Agreed. If it happens earlier great but expectations around the 18th are probably the safest bet. GFS looks to be cuing up the good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Agreed. If it happens earlier great but expectations around the 18th are probably the safest bet. GFS looks to be cuing up the good stuff. Modest wintry event d9. I'm not buying the speed of transition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 I had a turkey literally attack my explorer at the south shore plaza. Pecking at the sides of car and tires. Chased my car when I pulled away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 I had a turkey literally attack my explorer at the south shore plaza. Pecking at the sides of car and tires. Chased my car when I pulled away. LOL that's awesome, any idea why??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 OP GFS just slowed the front down vs the 12z, 1 more cutter on the 15th. We'll see what happens on the GEFS eh, that 15th thing might be ice given that depiction ...but.. at 180 hours, just one of many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Modest wintry event d9. I'm not buying the speed of transition. It'll be the 18th plus or minus a day or two. If we do get that larger system on the 15th to our west a follow up in the chain wouldn't surprise me. Only rub is if the gfs is rushing it could still be another hug/cutter. Interesting times ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Modest wintry event d9. I'm not buying the speed of transition. It'll be the 18th plus or minus a day or two. If we do get that larger system on the 15th to our west a follow up in the chain wouldn't surprise me. Only rub is if the gfs is rushing it could still be another hug/cutter. Interesting times ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 LOL that's awesome, any idea why??? No idea. Pulled into parking lot to give my buddy something he left in my car. This thing comes jogging at the car and just huddles up next to it and starts pecking away. I have hilarious videos of it on my old phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 The combination of a phase 6-7 "loop" for the MJO and the stratospheric setup really is arguing for another period of near-historic snowfall for the Midwest mid-month. The PV will end up, of course, on our side of the NH as this warming continues, with the "stratospheric tornado" linking up nicely into the troposphere. This will force amplification of the jet as the MJO progresses eastward (and its subsequent N PAC anomalies). The squeeze play in the jet in combination with the Arctic Air available, will probably bring another great round for them. This could bleed eastward, too, into the interior parts of the Northeast (as you all have been speculating could happen). The forced amplification from two forces and changing Tropical Pacific state will bring a general rise in AAM. The lee-side "recovery" post-MT in North America will likely have to be quite intense...i.e...big cyclone for the Midwest and Great Lakes sometime between 1/14-1/18 and maybe again a week later. I'll have to peak at the QBO. Every decent bomb that has landed here imby ( Jan 67/78/79 etc ) did so when the QBO was +. Not saying it won't happen but i always feel much better about such potential when that is +.. Other then that the potential does seem to be there. I think you all may get yours ( big snowstorm ) in Feb if all goes as i expect it too. Fuk the Midwest. We want it. Sorry Josh....every man for himself here! You did it now. The weather gods will now give you the pattern i have had for a few years now. Enjoy getting to normal snowfall via penny/nickle events. No dimes or better for you for a few years. Hopefully we all get something nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 No idea. Pulled into parking lot to give my buddy something he left in my car. This thing comes jogging at the car and just huddles up next to it and starts pecking away. I have hilarious videos of it on my old phone.I think the weather the last few years has thrown them off. They're grumpy on a good day anyway. So we get the change around the 18th but does it hold? 50-50 bet IMO. But it's better either way than what we have in a few days. Crazy but I am learning an unruly pacific is not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 eh, that 15th thing might be ice given that depiction ...but.. at 180 hours, just one of many. Yeah that synoptically is a classic ice setup...pretty decent 1028-1030ish high in Ontario/Quebec line region and even the GFS cruddy resolution picks up solid CAD at the surface there. A nice 35F rain here...but in reality you'd watch for ice in that setup. But who knows what it will look like by this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Good to see they are on board with timing of cold air punches.000FXUS61 KBUF 080253AFDBUFAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 953 PM EST MON JAN 7 2013THE SECOND PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN TO SHOW ITS CARDS BY THE MIDDLEOF THE MONTH. A MAJOR SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENT IS UNDERWAYAND NEARING COMPLETION. SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENTS AREFAVORED TO OCCUR DURING AN EASTERLY PHASE OF THE QUASI-BIENNIALOSCILLATION /QBO/...WHICH IS THE PHASE THE STRATOSPHERE IS IN THISWINTER. THE SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING CAUSES A DRAMATICWEAKENING...AND SOMETIMES ENTIRE BREAKDOWN OF THE STRATOSPHERICPOLAR VORTEX...AND A GREAT WEAKENING OR EVEN REVERSAL OF THESTRATOSPHERIC POLAR NIGHT JET. THE GFS FORECASTS THIS TO OCCUR OVERTHE NEXT WEEK AT THE 2MB LEVEL.THE RESULT OF ALL OF THIS IS THE GENERATION OF STRONG HIGH LATITUDEBLOCKING AS THE DRAMATIC CHANGES IN THE STRATOSPHERE FEED DOWN INTOTHE TROPOSPHERE. HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING FORCES THE COLDEST AIR SOUTHOUT OF THE HIGH ARCTIC AND TOWARDS THE MID LATITUDES...AND ALSOFAVORS LASTING STRONGLY NEGATIVE EPISODES OF ARCTIC OSCILLATION /AO/AND NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION /NAO/. THIS TYPICALLY BEGINS TO TAKEPLACE 10-15 DAYS AFTER THE SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENT. HOWLONG IT LASTS CAN VARY...BUT TYPICALLY THE COLD PATTERN LASTS FOR ATLEAST A FEW WEEKS...AND OCCASIONALLY CAN PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OFWINTER.AS ALL OF THIS IS OCCURRING...THE MJO IS FORECAST BY THE GEFSENSEMBLES TO WEAKEN AND FADE AWAY IN ABOUT 10 DAYS. THE PACIFICNORTH AMERICAN PATTERN /PNA/ IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEGATIVE OVER THENEXT 10 DAYS...WHICH WILL DIRECT THE FIRST BATCHES OF COLD INTO THEWESTERN AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL UNITED STATES. GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERSSUPPORT A TREND TOWARDS A NEUTRAL OR POSITIVE PNA BY THE MIDDLE OFTHE MONTH...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE GROWING COLD TO SPREAD EASTWARD. WHAT ALL OF THIS TECHNICAL JARGON MEANS IS THAT THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARDS MUCH COLDER WEATHER FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES STARTING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF JANUARY...WITH COLD LIKELY PEAKING IN LATE JANUARY INTO EARLY FEBRUARY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN IN AT LEAST SEVERAL YEARS DURING THIS PERIOD. WHAT SNOW POTENTIAL THIS WILL BRING IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO UNKNOWN DETAILS WITH SYNOPTIC STORM TRACK AND LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 I do not buy any of this until its on the doorstep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 If we can keep the EPO negative for the most part during the transition to +PNA, then we def have a shot at the coldest outbreak in quite sometime. But the EPO has been unreliable and there's still some red flags showing up beyond 10-12 days in the EPO orientation. So the idea of extreme arctic cold for us is still very up in the air IMHO. But I do think the chances for winter storms/precip will be much higher regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Hitchcock doing Oswego proud, there. 18z gefs is a les dream, but we'll see if it gets that great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Good to see they are on board with timing of cold air punches.000FXUS61 KBUF 080253AFDBUFAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 953 PM EST MON JAN 7 2013THE SECOND PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN TO SHOW ITS CARDS BY THE MIDDLEOF THE MONTH. A MAJOR SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENT IS UNDERWAYAND NEARING COMPLETION. SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENTS AREFAVORED TO OCCUR DURING AN EASTERLY PHASE OF THE QUASI-BIENNIALOSCILLATION /QBO/...WHICH IS THE PHASE THE STRATOSPHERE IS IN THISWINTER. THE SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING CAUSES A DRAMATICWEAKENING...AND SOMETIMES ENTIRE BREAKDOWN OF THE STRATOSPHERICPOLAR VORTEX...AND A GREAT WEAKENING OR EVEN REVERSAL OF THESTRATOSPHERIC POLAR NIGHT JET. THE GFS FORECASTS THIS TO OCCUR OVERTHE NEXT WEEK AT THE 2MB LEVEL.THE RESULT OF ALL OF THIS IS THE GENERATION OF STRONG HIGH LATITUDEBLOCKING AS THE DRAMATIC CHANGES IN THE STRATOSPHERE FEED DOWN INTOTHE TROPOSPHERE. HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING FORCES THE COLDEST AIR SOUTHOUT OF THE HIGH ARCTIC AND TOWARDS THE MID LATITUDES...AND ALSOFAVORS LASTING STRONGLY NEGATIVE EPISODES OF ARCTIC OSCILLATION /AO/AND NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION /NAO/. THIS TYPICALLY BEGINS TO TAKEPLACE 10-15 DAYS AFTER THE SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENT. HOWLONG IT LASTS CAN VARY...BUT TYPICALLY THE COLD PATTERN LASTS FOR ATLEAST A FEW WEEKS...AND OCCASIONALLY CAN PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OFWINTER.AS ALL OF THIS IS OCCURRING...THE MJO IS FORECAST BY THE GEFSENSEMBLES TO WEAKEN AND FADE AWAY IN ABOUT 10 DAYS. THE PACIFICNORTH AMERICAN PATTERN /PNA/ IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEGATIVE OVER THENEXT 10 DAYS...WHICH WILL DIRECT THE FIRST BATCHES OF COLD INTO THEWESTERN AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL UNITED STATES. GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERSSUPPORT A TREND TOWARDS A NEUTRAL OR POSITIVE PNA BY THE MIDDLE OFTHE MONTH...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE GROWING COLD TO SPREAD EASTWARD. WHAT ALL OF THIS TECHNICAL JARGON MEANS IS THAT THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARDS MUCH COLDER WEATHER FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES STARTING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF JANUARY...WITH COLD LIKELY PEAKING IN LATE JANUARY INTO EARLY FEBRUARY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN IN AT LEAST SEVERAL YEARS DURING THIS PERIOD. WHAT SNOW POTENTIAL THIS WILL BRING IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO UNKNOWN DETAILS WITH SYNOPTIC STORM TRACK AND LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. I still think the 20th-23rd might feature a bigger corrective event in there - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 I still think the 20th-23rd might feature a bigger corrective event in there - Yeah I agree I think it will be bigger than the 14-15 event but I think the 24-27 will have the coldest air. The temp gradient should be smaller with the 24-27 event since I'm guessing there will be some cold air already in place over the east from the 20-23 wave and there won't be as much baroclinic instability. MJO induced waves like 20-23 always seem to produce big for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 THE RESULT OF ALL OF THIS IS THE GENERATION OF STRONG HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING AS THE DRAMATIC CHANGES IN THE STRATOSPHERE FEED DOWN INTO THE TROPOSPHERE. HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING FORCES THE COLDEST AIR SOUTH OUT OF THE HIGH ARCTIC AND TOWARDS THE MID LATITUDES...AND ALSO FAVORS LASTING STRONGLY NEGATIVE EPISODES OF ARCTIC OSCILLATION /AO/ AND NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION /NAO/. THIS TYPICALLY BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE 10-15 DAYS AFTER THE SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENT. HOW LONG IT LASTS CAN VARY...BUT TYPICALLY THE COLD PATTERN LASTS FOR AT LEAST A FEW WEEKS...AND OCCASIONALLY CAN PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF WINTER. That would put everyone in a good mood for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 I'm still a solid 6" of snowcover and 12 F out there now. I can't complain up to this point. I'm not fussing over 2 mild days this week and 2 over the weekend.. then a return to colder. I will still have some snow otg esp if Euro is right. This is a lot better than last year so far here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 The last 12 hours of this thread have presented the most complex discussion in the history of banter threads. What crazy temp disparities this morning! 18.1/15 here at the Pit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 The last 12 hours of this thread have presented the most complex discussion in the history of banter threads. What crazy temp disparities this morning! 18.1/15 here at the Pit. Huge inversion this morning. The higher elevations are really warm. Echo Lake in Franconia Notch is up to 35F while BML and HIE are closer to -10F. We're all going to mix out quickly into the 40s today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Still kind of iffy with this whole thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 The low was 2 here, but up to 6 degrees now. I see the 6Z GFS gets that boundary through by Sunday night now with an ice situation for a lot of us on Monday.' But Saturday and Sunday don't look pretty re: snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Dropped to 10F overnight but have shot up to 26F now. The end is near Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 I think snow loss will be slow and minor into Friday here. Weak sun, low dews, several good radiational mornings limiting the above freezing hours. Four hours of >35 on January 8th isn't gonna do much even if we push 40. It's the weekend that looks ugly. Dropped to 10F overnight but have shot up to 26F now.The end is near Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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