Moving past first week of January General Discussion/banter

[Typhoon Tip]

We're going to have a day or two where we furnace into the 50s I think. But hopefully the trough comes east fairly quickly like the 00z Euro shows...which actually gives us a winter storm threat on the 15th.

 

 

The worry is the Phil Scenario where the trough gets hung up to the west for an extra 48 hours and we just torch for 2 more days....that would finish off all the snow pack even up into CNE. Hopefully that doesn't happen and we get more of a 00z Euro.

 

Day 3 and 4 are the best shot at that.  Multi-run/source suggestion for a default polar boundary situating N with west wind through +4 or 5C 850mb... even over snow pack one would intuit some gorgeous weather for those two days.  

 

The system next weekend has some ice potential to it in my estimation.  That actually looks pretty classic with 24 hour preceding confluence rolling out through SE Canada and a resulting strong +PP retreating NNE as the system approaches, strongly argue for a colder correction to the boundary layer.  

[Ginx snewx]

Yeah this whole mini meh mild up which is a few days is very reminiscent of that one in 2001

 

Man it keeps getting cut back, the fantasy 16 degree 850s replaced by 2-4s.

[CoastalWx]

I still would expect this to be a very long 10 days for snow fans including myself. Just how it looks. Just how it likely will shake out.

 

I can't believe how the models fire up the MJO. Even taking into account the over-forecasted amplitude..still would argue for improvement down the road.

[Typhoon Tip]

the system after that is ice for that matter too 

[Typhoon Tip]

I still would expect this to be a very long 10 days for snow fans including myself. Just how it looks. Just how it likely will shake out.

 

I can't believe how the models fire up the MJO. Even taking into account the over-forecasted amplitude..still would argue for improvement down the road.

 

It's a fascinating and fortunate era for studying dominating factors.   No question, the polar indices are sending pretty much a 180 degree opposite temperature anomaly through the N/A circuit, while the MJO would push Crocus blooms before Feb 1st!   

[moneypitmike]

We were talking daily low temps...not highs. Temps were not supposed to crash this afternoon.

 

There were posted comments this morning suggesting they would.

 

Been pretty damn steady all day long here since sunrise.  Managed a dip to 33.0 and a high of 35.5 bur primarily has been hovering between 33.5 and 34.5.  Dews have been dropping htough.

 

34.1/15 attm.

 

Man it keeps getting cut back, the fantasy 16 degree 850s replaced by 2-4s.

 

Pretty comical if we ended up just slightly above those days.

[Ginx snewx]

This would be great CAA Thurs on the Euro, just blasting in with high winds, any luck we get some embedded vorts to crank up some squalls. And this NAO coming is not bootleg

[OSUmetstud]

wow at the -NAO on the Euro...570dm over Greenland.

 

 

[Tropopause_Fold]

I still would expect this to be a very long 10 days for snow fans including myself. Just how it looks. Just how it likely will shake out.

 

I can't believe how the models fire up the MJO. Even taking into account the over-forecasted amplitude..still would argue for improvement down the road.

 

yep. sad but true. 

[weathafella]

Man it keeps getting cut back, the fantasy 16 degree 850s replaced by 2-4s.

Boreal...

[moneypitmike]

BOX has dropped any snow from the forecast tonight.  Not sure if had been there area-wide or just in the western areas.  Now just tomorrow.

 

 

[Tropopause_Fold]

It's a fascinating and fortunate era for studying dominating factors.   No question, the polar indices are sending pretty much a 180 degree opposite temperature anomaly through the N/A circuit, while the MJO would push Crocus blooms before Feb 1st!   

 

perhaps that's why we are seeing the big arctic dump into the W. 

[weathafella]

NAO fighting PNA. Now the euros propensity to hold back the energy in the SW actually argues for a better solution for all of ne. However I think we are pulling dingle berries and calling them fruit if we call this pattern anything other than woeful for winter lovers 1/8-16.

[N. OF PIKE]

I hope the torch gets muted for places like wa wa's sake. Has wa wa been making snow like gangbusters or slackin?

[OSUmetstud]

Kinda nuts too see that massive block in Greenland but to see still significantly above normal heights in the northeast.  But that -PNA on the long range Euro is hardcore.

 

 

[N. OF PIKE]

A tale of two winters interior sne and e cp sne. Kev is at 30 and bos is @ 3.5 or so. I'm thinking this may continue jan 17 onward

[CoastalWx]

A tale of two winters interior sne and e cp sne. Kev is at 30 and bos is @ 3.5 or so

 

Logan's total is too low.

[N. OF PIKE]

I'm 10 miles n of city and I have about 8 scott, bos may have 5? I don't think they got more than 3 on the ocean in the last storm did they?

[N. OF PIKE]

I'm 10 miles n of city and I have about 8 scott, bos may have 5? I don't think they got more than 3 on the ocean in the last storm did they?

[weathafella]

I'm 10 miles n of city and I have about 8 scott, bos may have 5? I don't think they got more than 3 on the ocean in the last storm did they?

I have more than you. I have about 10....a 45 minute walk to Back Bay.

[Damage In Tolland]

the system after that is ice for that matter too 

 

For this week?

[Damage In Tolland]

If we can somehow sneak out of this with 2-4 days of mini mild up and then boom like Euro has it back to cold and storm threats..that would be a real tickler

[CoastalWx]

I'm 10 miles n of city and I have about 8 scott, bos may have 5? I don't think they got more than 3 on the ocean in the last storm did they?

 

 

I think they are missing a few nickel and dime events. I have 5.6".

[QVectorman]

The GWO analogs eluded to this second warm up all the way back on Dec. 14. It will be short lived with the warmest air being tempered by cooler/colder air arriving in the Jan 10-13 range moving into the Jan 15-25 range with much colder air. Based on GWO and strat. analogs I'm guessing the coldest core of the 850 temps behind the short waves for the Jan 12-19 time frame will remain warmer than -15C then be reinforced with a coldest core of -15 to -25C for Jan 21-25 with a core of cold in the -25 to -30C range possibly as cold as -36C at some point for Jan 25-30. With -33C sneaking over the northern plains or GLKS or NE. Of course the cores of the coldest air will probably remain north of the border but still one can extrapolate what kind of 850 temps would be making down to the central US with those types of 850 temps just north of border.  With shortwaves arriving with more cold air for Jan 24-27 and Jan 27-29 and Feb 1-5. Though it appears the last week of Jan into Feb again would be the coldest air. Of course as stated before the caveat to these is how strong is the southerly flow ahead of these shortwaves that will also produce a spike in temps a day or two before the wave. So a strong wave will have a strong flow and could really spike temps for a day or two before it's arrive too. 

 

 

QVectorman, on 14 December 2012 - 04:54 PM, said:

With the newest GWO numbers today the latest analogs indicate a 15-20F warm up in sfc temps Jan 3-Jan 6 compared to prior days highs across Midwest or NE (the Dec. 31-Jan 3 cold episode) and analogs suggest a stair stepped 15-20F temperature fall behind the warm up 1-2 days after that, meaning another spell of colder air Jan 5-8.

I extended my outlook through Jan 8 on Dec. 14. I still feel comfortable with those dates and with the newest GWO analogs and latest 10 and 30 mb temp forecast it appears the time frame between Jan 8-10 will see a warm up over the east with a short wave moving through the east Jan 10-11 with cooler air dropping in behind it for Jan 10-13 across the MW/GLKS and then pockets of cooler air arriving Jan 15-19 time frame for the east followed by a second reinforcement of cooler air Jan 20-24.

[CoastalWx]

Those analogs seemed like they did OK Q-man. Nice job putting all that together.

[QVectorman]

Those analogs seemed like they did OK Q-man. Nice job putting all that together.

 

Thanks! Glad I could contribute and add some pieces to the puzzle. I'm working with a friend on getting a program together to start coming up with the average temp anomalies for my analogs to add a little more depth to the data.  

[weathafella]

The GWO analogs eluded to this second warm up all the way back on Dec. 14. It will be short lived with the warmest air being tempered by cooler/colder air arriving in the Jan 10-13 range moving into the Jan 15-25 range with much colder air. Based on GWO and strat. analogs I'm guessing the coldest core of the 850 temps behind the short waves for the Jan 12-19 time frame will remain warmer than -15C then be reinforced with a coldest core of -15 to -25C for Jan 21-25 with a core of cold in the -25 to -30C range possibly as cold as -36C at some point for Jan 25-30. With -33C sneaking over the northern plains or GLKS or NE. Of course the cores of the coldest air will probably remain north of the border but still one can extrapolate what kind of 850 temps would be making down to the central US with those types of 850 temps just north of border. With shortwaves arriving with more cold air for Jan 24-27 and Jan 27-29 and Feb 1-5. Though it appears the last week of Jan into Feb again would be the coldest air. Of course as stated before the caveat to these is how strong is the southerly flow ahead of these shortwaves that will also produce a spike in temps a day or two before the wave. So a strong wave will have a strong flow and could really spike temps for a day or two before it's arrive too.

QVectorman, on 14 December 2012 - 04:54 PM, said:

With the newest GWO numbers today the latest analogs indicate a 15-20F warm up in sfc temps Jan 3-Jan 6 compared to prior days highs across Midwest or NE (the Dec. 31-Jan 3 cold episode) and analogs suggest a stair stepped 15-20F temperature fall behind the warm up 1-2 days after that, meaning another spell of colder air Jan 5-8.

I extended my outlook through Jan 8 on Dec. 14. I still feel comfortable with those dates and with the newest GWO analogs and latest 10 and 30 mb temp forecast it appears the time frame between Jan 8-10 will see a warm up over the east with a short wave moving through the east Jan 10-11 with cooler air dropping in behind it for Jan 10-13 across the MW/GLKS and then pockets of cooler air arriving Jan 15-19 time frame for the east followed by a second reinforcement of cooler air Jan 20-24.

That's an awfully cold signal for the climo bottom of winter!

[Damage In Tolland]

Temp has tickled down to 34.4 off a high earlier of 36.9

[Dan]

I think they are missing a few nickel and dime events. I have 5.6".

 

I am sitting at 8" for the year up here.

[Damage In Tolland]

The GWO analogs eluded to this second warm up all the way back on Dec. 14. It will be short lived with the warmest air being tempered by cooler/colder air arriving in the Jan 10-13 range moving into the Jan 15-25 range with much colder air. Based on GWO and strat. analogs I'm guessing the coldest core of the 850 temps behind the short waves for the Jan 12-19 time frame will remain warmer than -15C then be reinforced with a coldest core of -15 to -25C for Jan 21-25 with a core of cold in the -25 to -30C range possibly as cold as -36C at some point for Jan 25-30. With -33C sneaking over the northern plains or GLKS or NE. Of course the cores of the coldest air will probably remain north of the border but still one can extrapolate what kind of 850 temps would be making down to the central US with those types of 850 temps just north of border.  With shortwaves arriving with more cold air for Jan 24-27 and Jan 27-29 and Feb 1-5. Though it appears the last week of Jan into Feb again would be the coldest air. Of course as stated before the caveat to these is how strong is the southerly flow ahead of these shortwaves that will also produce a spike in temps a day or two before the wave. So a strong wave will have a strong flow and could really spike temps for a day or two before it's arrive too. 

 

You had us naked by your second sentence