Moving past first week of January General Discussion/banter

[QVectorman]

This works into you what you guys were discussing and showing the CCKW contributing to a false MJO signal over the past couple days but adding life to the MJO at the same time.

 

I posted this earlier today in the GLKS forum but it applies here....Yesterday there was a CCKW over 120E which is equivalent to phase 6 of the MJO that may trigger the teleconnection pattern that should produce the Jan 14-15 storm over the plains/midwest. Also another factor is an extra tropical rossby wave train that is clipped on the analysis at 30N 170W that will move over the central portion of the country Jan 14-15 time frame. So both the CCKW and x-t RW should contribute to generating a decent short wave Jan 14-15. This is an identical set up and timing with CCKW and xt RWT to the Dec. 26th snow storm that hit the Midwest/Great Lakes. Unfortunately, I don't think there is much hope for the NE region from these signals for the 14th-15th time frame since the warm GWO signal for the Jan 10-13 time frame has the signature of a ridge over the SE that should steer the shortwave up through the GLKS or Plains. 

 

IF the MJO makes it to phase 7 (as HM, Tip and ORH have said, the MJO signal was rejuvenated the other day by the CCKW moving through it.) around Jan 13/14(Ventrice site) or Jan 15/16 (CPC models) depending on what site given a 7-10 day lag we could see another storm for the east coast for Jan 20-23 or Jan 22-25 which jives with my Jan 21-25 or Jan 24-27 that I posted back on Dec. 20th. I like my dates from a month ago for shortwaves for time frame Jan 21-25 and another  wave jan 24-27 so I think the MJO forecast will change a few times in the next couple days eventually falling in line with GWO dates which are the dates from Dec. 20. Which makes sense since the GWO impacts the MJO and vice versa. 

[Typhoon Tip]

MJO forecasts are ALWAYS better when there is a real, coherent wave. This is especially true when it is coupled with a CCKW and the CHI fields are more organized.

 

Up until recently, the wind fields were broad, the Walker/Hadley Cells were dominant and there was hardly any organization to it. Different entities were being represented on the graph.

 

The models now are more reliable.

 

I noticed that too and found it interesting.. I have also noticed in the past that when that is happening, "new" wave dynamics seem to have a difficult time getting going.  May be a repeating of that tendency;  perhaps why we've seen relative quiescent wave activity over the last 30 days.  

 

QVectorman, 

agreed on the 20-23 event.  That's the delic one from where I am sitting.     Some of this is also reflective in the long lead PNA,which attempts to go back positive around the 19th - possibly in response to tropical forcing from an effectual MJO entering Phase 7 near or just prior to that time.   

[N. OF PIKE]

looking at the raliegh wx site phase 6 didn't seem that bad wrt to 500mb anomalies for new england, esp given climo, where as it seem'd more of a stretch for areas from Long island south the anomalies worsened (on top of warmer climo conditions anyway).  just sayin phase 6 MJO didn't look anywhere as bad as phase 5 or 4  for new england, i mean slightly above normal heights at 500 mb but nothing that much out of ordinary, i.e something that could still produce for us, given climo in january.  so just get past phase 5 IMO

[weathafella]

Mets, thanks so much for the education today. I had some reading in the dental chair whenever he left the room...lol.

[QVectorman]

I noticed that too and found it interesting.. I have also noticed in the past that when that is happening, "new" wave dynamics seem to have a difficult time getting going.  May be a repeating of that tendency;  perhaps why we've seen relative quiescent wave activity over the last 30 days.  

 

QVectorman, 

agreed on the 20-23 event.  That's the delic one from where I am sitting.     Some of this is also reflective in the long lead PNA,which attempts to go back positive around the 19th - possibly in response to tropical forcing from an effectual MJO entering Phase 7 near or just prior to that time.   

 

Good to hear you're seeing the same thing in the PNA. It's nice when mets/other posters thoughts back up one another's ideas on time frames etc.  My gut is that the series of shortwaves starting Jan 14-15 will be pretty decent and be a goody bag of CCKW induced, x-t RW, and MJO induced waves. Now the exciting part is waiting the next couple days to see what pops up as genesis mechanisms because for now it's DEAD from the Atlantic all the way over Asia as far as CCKWs and x-t RW's. May be all MJO pulses after the 15th? My GWO analogs only go out 14-21 days so I'm kinda flying blind after the Jan 24-27 event as far as triggers.

[ORH_wxman]

looking at the raliegh wx site phase 6 didn't seem that bad wrt to 500mb anomalies for new england, esp given climo, where as it seem'd more of a stretch for areas from Long island south the anomalies worsened (on top of warmer climo conditions anyway).  just sayin phase 6 MJO didn't look anywhere as bad as phase 5 or 4  for new england, i mean slightly above normal heights at 500 mb but nothing that much out of ordinary, i.e something that could still produce for us, given climo in january.  so just get past phase 5 IMO

 

 

Phase 6 in much better in December for us than January....regardless, I think we'll have our chances. The MJO is just one piece of puzzle...and as it goes through phase 6 into phase 7, it becomes an ally again.

[Bostonseminole]

My head is spinning! Good stuff here today!

Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck.

[codfishsnowman]

well i live in one of the least snowy interior parts of sne witih the worst snow clean up procedures so i am glad that it has gotten warm enough for the ice packed streets to melt enough so that i can walk Buddy and Bellla easier.

still holding out hope for 1888 or 1899 redux later this winter lol

[Damage In Tolland]

Really only one nasty torch day on Sunday. We lucked out with the weak triple point on Friday and cad. Saturday had no mixing so we stay in 40's. Just think, by this time next week the arctic front is thru, we're back below freezing , and we're tracking the winter storm for next Thursday/Friday. Overall things looking very good for winter wx fans.

[nzucker]

Snowfall has been hit or miss in most places.  At least the northern mountains look like they should this time of year.  But seasonal snowfall - as most everyone acknowledges - is only a very general indicator of the overall wintryness of a winter.

 

I think a lot of the dissastisfaction with recent winter conditions is the prevailing warmth.  I know in ENY and the Berks, last year was the warmest or nearly the warmest year on record.  And there has been a lot of winter rain in places that are used to getting more snow than rain during the winter.  When 5 out of 7 storms bring wet instead of white, even if those 2 snowstorms deliver (as they in fact did for the region I'm talking about), it still feels like you've been screwed.  And with more and better midrange models to show us all the potential lurking just beyond the rainbow, it's easy to feel let down when it turns out warm and rainy.

 

Strongly agree....seasonal snowfall has been decent here in Westchester (over 15" in early January), but it hasn't been a very wintry winter. It's sort of similar to a season like 71-72 where 40-45" of snow fell in this area, but people who lived through it said the winter was forgettable because of warm-ups and changeover events. This year, we had our biggest event in early November at 8", which melted very quickly with climo still around 58/40 at the time. December was a torch except for the last week, which had a couple minor snowfalls/mix events, the early January cold underperformed, and now we're looking down the barrel of another torch with snowless conditions expected until the 20th here in NYC metro. Any time we are talking about writing off multiple weeks in mid-January, it's not a good winter.

 

There's more to a winter than statistics. 10-11 and 09-10 had the same amount of snow here, but 10-11 was a far superior winter due to snow pack, extreme cold, longevity of cold, icing events, and distribution of snowfalls. So far, this has been an unimpressive winter, no matter how much snow someone has had or how much snowpack is on the ground in the Green Mountains.

[CoastalWx]

Really only one nasty torch day on Sunday. We lucked out with the weak triple point on Friday and cad. Saturday had no mixing so we stay in 40's. Just think, by this time next week the arctic front is thru, we're back below freezing , and we're tracking the winter storm for next Thursday/Friday. Overall things looking very good for winter wx fans.

 

Yeah, but you'll have rain too. I bet when all is said and done, pretty much all your snow is gone. 

[ORH_wxman]

Strongly agree....seasonal snowfall has been decent here in Westchester (over 15" in early January), but it hasn't been a very wintry winter. It's sort of similar to a season like 71-72 where 40-45" of snow fell in this area, but people who lived through it said the winter was forgettable because of warm-ups and changeover events. This year, we had our biggest event in early November at 8", which melted very quickly with climo still around 58/40 at the time. December was a torch except for the last week, which had a couple minor snowfalls/mix events, the early January cold underperformed, and now we're looking down the barrel of another torch with snowless conditions expected until the 20th here in NYC metro. Any time we are talking about writing off multiple weeks in mid-January, it's not a good winter.

 

There's more to a winter than statistics. 10-11 and 09-10 had the same amount of snow here, but 10-11 was a far superior winter due to snow pack, extreme cold, longevity of cold, icing events, and distribution of snowfalls. So far, this has been an unimpressive winter, no matter how much snow someone has had or how much snowpack is on the ground in the Green Mountains.

 

Its been a half decent winter here. It has definitely sucked worse in the CP and south of here. We had an ice storm on Dec 16-17 too that many other areas missed. Best ice storm since Dec 2008.

 

We'll need to produce though in the 2nd half of this month to keep it decent.

[CoastalWx]

If I can have even a toned down version of 2/1-3/7 2003, I'll be a happy camper.

My concern is the Pacific, but this time around we have a Canadian PV on our side.

This whole pattern evolution with the stratospheric warming and differing MJO forecasts, has the look of model fluctuations.

[weathafella]

Some flags. Overall a positive look but definitely some flags.

[Logan11]

Cold night here ...amidst the torch week. Down to 11F.

[weathafella]

18z GEFS a bit of a nightmare with extreme cold and not much in the way of qpf 240 onward.

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah, but you'll have rain too. I bet when all is said and done, pretty much all your snow is gone.

It will all be gone. Even snow banks.

[weathafella]

Otoh, euro ensembles d10 look amazing to me. -34C h85 northern Hudson's bay and -26 into James bay.

[nzucker]

Its been a half decent winter here. It has definitely sucked worse in the CP and south of here. We had an ice storm on Dec 16-17 too that many other areas missed. Best ice storm since Dec 2008.

 

We'll need to produce though in the 2nd half of this month to keep it decent.

 

I agree...."half decent" is about the best you can say. We definitely need a solid stretch from mid-Jan to mid-Feb to keep this winter decent. If we go on a tear, as I think we might, with another 40" month like Jan 2011 or Feb 2010, then this will be remembered as a great season since the beginning was somewhat respectable. It's still early enough for the coastal plain to keep plenty of snowpack, so with the stratospheric warming and MJO moving towards Phase 7 I could see a month of very wintry conditions around here...

[CoastalWx]

Otoh, euro ensembles d10 look amazing to me. -34C h85 northern Hudson's bay and -26 into James bay.

GEFS continue to be cold. I'm not really sold on that cold right now, but I could see a cold shot....just not as continuous and as intense like the GEFS or GFS op.

[ORH_wxman]

I agree...."half decent" is about the best you can say. We definitely need a solid stretch from mid-Jan to mid-Feb to keep this winter decent. If we go on a tear, as I think we might, with another 40" month like Jan 2011 or Feb 2010, then this will be remembered as a great season since the beginning was somewhat respectable. It's still early enough for the coastal plain to keep plenty of snowpack, so with the stratospheric warming and MJO moving towards Phase 7 I could see a month of very wintry conditions around here...

 

I also give credit to 2 November snow events here...the 2nd of which kept snow on the ground for several days including the small Dec 1 event falling on top of it.

 

So even though the first 2 weeks of Dec were terrible, I have to give some credit to November.

 

But the pressure is definitely on to produce the 2nd half of this month into February with us not getting much snow at all in the first 2 weeks. I do think it will produce, but the biggest question is how much and for how long.

[CoastalWx]

I agree...."half decent" is about the best you can say. We definitely need a solid stretch from mid-Jan to mid-Feb to keep this winter decent. If we go on a tear, as I think we might, with another 40" month like Jan 2011 or Feb 2010, then this will be remembered as a great season since the beginning was somewhat respectable. It's still early enough for the coastal plain to keep plenty of snowpack, so with the stratospheric warming and MJO moving towards Phase 7 I could see a month of very wintry conditions around here...

This winter has sucked big here

again, but the patten is definitely different than last year.

[CoastalWx]

It will all be gone. Even snow banks.

My 3" OTG has held surprisingly well, but sunny areas are back to bare again.

[weathafella]

GEFS continue to be cold. I'm not really sold on that cold right now, but I could see a cold shot....just not as continuous and as intense like the GEFS or GFS op.

GEFS would imply less snow I think.

[CoastalWx]

GEFS would imply less snow I think.

It had a clipper look, but yeah I think the flow would be west to east and not much amplitude to pick up moisture.

[nzucker]

I also give credit to 2 November snow events here...the 2nd of which kept snow on the ground for several days including the small Dec 1 event falling on top of it.

 

So even though the first 2 weeks of Dec were terrible, I have to give some credit to November.

 

But the pressure is definitely on to produce the 2nd half of this month into February with us not getting much snow at all in the first 2 weeks. I do think it will produce, but the biggest question is how much and for how long.

 

November was a great month here...8.5" of snow in 2 events and -4F temperature departure. It was very wintry compared to the usual blandness of the November climate. That's why I'm not saying the winter sucked...November was great, and we had a two week stretch from Dec 20-Jan 4 that was reasonably wintry with periods of snow cover, storm systems, and cold weather. December was mostly a stinker though. I was expecting a good January but that idea seems to be in potential danger...

[Damage In Tolland]

My 3" OTG has held surprisingly well, but sunny areas are back to bare again.

 

Massive snow here still...39-43 the next 2 days won't do much with low dews and clouds Wed..A cold Thursday and CAd, 34 rain Friday.. So Sat and Sunday will have to destroy it

[weathafella]

It had a clipper look, but yeah I think the flow would be west to east and not much amplitude to pick up moisture.

This is as close as we've gotten to the holy grail of 1993-94 in a longtime. Lets hpe it comes to fruition and we bank overrunning burial.

[CoastalWx]

This is as close as we've gotten to the holy grail of 1993-94 in a longtime. Lets hpe it comes to fruition and we bank overrunning burial.

Man I would kill for even a normal period of winter. These last 2 seasons have been abysmal and that's putting it lightly. Just horrible for a winter weather enthusiast. How do they do it in DC. I'm at the point where I'm almost ready for warmer weather.

[N. OF PIKE]

thur nite and fri am has frz rain in forecast for union,ct and orh, ma on the p/click's .