icebreaker5221 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 I tell you one thing ... these cold vortex into James Bay depictions are going to wind up on red-herring stats in a real hurry if the polar field indices really go ahead and turn-coat on the pattern. This back off, if it continues, would eventually end winter given to the magnitude of this, which is approaching the upper bounds: Not denying the fact that there may be a real MJO signal there, but don't you think the phase 4 signal is exaggerated by recent TC genesis northwest of Australia? That would really throw off the OLR anomalies. We're probably closer to phase 5 by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 It would be a major kick in the nether regions if SNE got less snow than last season I still need 25" or so... I should have no problem getting that, but it makes you wonder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 I just started twitching when I read that...can you break it down for us John in plain English? What am I looking at? It looks like something my 4 year old would etch-a-sketch. Thanks in advance I'll try. 1) that is an incredibly powerful warm MJO phase - meaning, the correlation for Phase 4/5 cusp is warm temperature anomalies for the middle latitudes of N/A. Compounding that the wave strength is so strong, it's going to send an eventual attempt at pattern adjustment. 2) why? because of "tropical forcing" - what the really means is that all that latent heat released by this - note the right hand side of the image - that's your Phase 4/5 pig! ..Will dump down wind and generate a large ridge response...which in turn sends the roulette wheel of R-waves a-spinning; i.e., pattern change The caveat here is that we've seen the operational runs pull this crap this year already, where they lose a signal in the blocking for a time, and then have come back. We'll have to see. But the one-stop point I was making was/is, without at least some kind of a -EPO/-AO/-NAO, or some variation therein, that powerful of an MJO would have no compensating factors and probably would express it's anomaly distribution accordingly. Given to the fact that it is so strong, said anomaly could come on with equal panache. It really is a battle - the previous -AO and gang are directly in 180 degree polar opposite signal to this current MJO. Very interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 that prog is the reason for my concern. phase 5/6 are absolute blow torches for the east coast - and we're seeing the impact right now. the hope is it continues around the horn to the better phases 8-3. some guidance kind of kills it at 6/7 which would not be a good thing. but models tend to suck with MJO stuff so we'll see. Right. I suspect it's the inaccuracy/newness of the science behind these forcing mechanisms that's had some forecasters in fits the last 2 years. I think the pattern looks fine coming up, I don't think we're into a prolonged ice box but we've had that in previous years and it stunk (aside of our epic blizzard in 05). I think this will start to sort out in the next 72 hours on the longer term. we'll see. How is this for an ozone smasher? Better luck next winter. This is another one of those things I don't follow, can you elaborate? Models will accurately hit on the MJO if the CD (cosmic dildo) is in play Probably because models are programmed by people that presumably like weather. It is odd that the best case scenarios seem to work out much less than the worst case. Programming or just mother nature being a pita? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Not denying the fact that there may be a real MJO signal there, but don't you think the phase 4 signal is exaggerated by recent TC genesis northwest of Australia? That would really throw off the OLR anomalies. We're probably closer to phase 5 by now. IDE00134.201301071930.jpg could be, sure - thing is, at last for me, convection is still convection. Whether it is exaggerating a phase space magnitude or not, the latent heat flux is still occurring. The MJO seems to be the most consistently modeled teleconnector right now. Granted, it is probably unfair to ask for EPO, AO, and NAO consistency, because these latter domains are routinely stochastic when compared to the ENSO quadrants et al - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Who cares about foolish MJO nonsense. It's all voodoo . Nice to see euro winning with the quicker fropa and snow threats next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 How is this for an ozone smasher? Better luck next winter. Yes and no actually, having sunspots isn't enough - polarity of the plasma is important. It's possible to get a lot of activity and not have it be appreciably a huge problem to the ozone residence if there is less "hand shake" between the terrestrial magnetic field to that of the incurring/passing clouds of solar ejecta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Who cares about foolish MJO nonsense. It's all voodoo . Nice to see euro winning with the quicker fropa and snow threats next week People with a higher I.Q. than is necessary to merely balance a check book, that's who. Look, there's a strong correlation to temperature anomalies over middle latitudes of N/A with Phase 4-6 MJO for a reason. Granted, no correlation in the atmospheric game is 1::1, and that is what you winter zealots are hoping for - because hands down no contest: if the EPO, AO and NAO hiatus, that MJO will alter the Pac and will lead to downstream Moderator headaches on the forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 could be, sure - thing is, at last for me, convection is still convection. Whether it is exaggerating a phase space magnitude or not, the latent heat flux is still occurring. The MJO seems to be the most consistently modeled teleconnector right now. Granted, it is probably unfair to ask for EPO, AO, and NAO consistency, because these latter domains are routinely stochastic when compared to the ENSO quadrants et al - True. I would suspect tho that as the system dwells deeper and deeper into the SH, we should see less of a signal in the MJO phase diagrams and less latent heating and associated ridge building in the NH. So any damaged done should only be short term (hopefully) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 The MJO signal is going to verify pretty much...we have a torch in the east coming up during the time when the MJO is in phase 5/6. Almost all guidance has it rounding into phase 7 by Jan 14-15 which is when our cooldown commences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 The MJO signal is going to verify pretty much...we have a torch in the east coming up during the time when the MJO is in phase 5/6. Almost all guidance has it rounding into phase 7 by Jan 14-15 which is when our cooldown commences. How well was this current phase predicted 7-10 days ago by the MJO forecasts(ers)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 True. I would suspect tho that as the system dwells deeper and deeper into the SH, we should see less of a signal in the MJO phase diagrams and less latent heating and associated ridge building in the NH. So any damaged done should only be short term (hopefully) word! hey, that looks actually like a TC developing in the Australia's tropical maritimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 The MJO signal is going to verify pretty much...we have a torch in the east coming up during the time when the MJO is in phase 5/6. Almost all guidance has it rounding into phase 7 by Jan 14-15 which is when our cooldown commences. Right. I still suspect we have an MJO phase 4/5 right now, and will have a 6 at some point over the next several days, which agrees well with the warmth in the eastern US. I'm just saying we're not really at a +3 sigma MJO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 How well was this current phase predicted 7-10 days ago by the MJO forecasts(ers)? It was predicted fine from what I remember in terms of what phase it would be. The biggest uncertainty was always the magnitude and how far the MJO wave would go before collapsing back into the COD. I appears it will make it to at least the beginnin gof phase 7 now which does correlate with the colder weather in the east. If we can revive it and have it do a nice loop from phase 8 through phase 2, that would be very good for winter enthusiasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Any word on weeklies will orh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 How warm did it get there in January 1950? That was the only other year where ORH hit 67F in January. We hit 66F in 2007...close but no cigar. 56 on Jan 5 (obs day 7A-7A), tied with 1/28/74 for 3rd mildest. #2 is 1/8/2008 with 61. 1/6/2007 hit 55, in a 7-way tie for 5th place. (That tie includes 1/16/1995, which has the 2nd mildest mean, 47.5.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Right. I still suspect we have an MJO phase 4/5 right now, and will have a 6 at some point over the next several days, which agrees well with the warmth in the eastern US. I'm just saying we're not really at a +3 sigma MJO. Tropical systems and for that matter any RWs associated with the "CCKW-MJO" system are PART of the MJO. The +3 sigma is actually legit I think but you have the right attitude for future waves. It is always good to see why the RMMs are doing what they are doing. In fact, the last "fake signal" was because of a C PAC tropical system when the actual wind fields were broader (-h2/+h85), giving the illusion of a phase 8-1 orbit. Maybe your point should be that the CCKW in close proximity to the MJO within the "already favored Walker Forcing Areas" are heightening the signal, increasing amplitude more than perhaps is legitimate. But I wouldn't call this a fake signal as much as it is just a "wave" modifying a background signal, amplifying the crest. I hope I made some sense. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 The MJO is definitely important when it is at least a modest wave and as modeled it's ready firing up a good jet in the Pacific. Tip went over the physics why. It's all part of the reason why I want to wait until this weekend to see how things shake out. There is also a warming event that appears to be at least trying to establish an east based -NAO when you look at the levels from 50mb to 500 mb. That's another piece of this crazy puzzle coming down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 word! hey, that looks actually like a TC developing in the Australia's tropical maritimes. Maybe that can help us out in a little while... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 The MJO is definitely important when it is at least a modest wave and as modeled it's ready firing up a good jet in the Pacific. Tip went over the physics why. It's all part of the reason why I want to wait until this weekend to see how things shake out. There is also a warming event that appears to be at least trying to establish an east based -NAO when you look at the levels from 50mb to 500 mb. That's another piece of this crazy puzzle coming down the road. I honestly have no idea how you red.taggers figure this out...lotta good my degrees do me...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 I'm mobile right now, but weeklies still looked good. Week 3 and 4 had ridging in Greenland even a +PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Dec 29, 1984 was a +37 at ORH. Greatest positive departure on record here. Jan 15, 1957 put up a -33. I suspect there are others, but the only additional 40F departure I've found in New England was when PWM hit that insane -39 (by 13F their coldest ever) on 2/16/43. I'm guessing that's the coldest US temp next to saltwater recorded south of the Aleutian Peninsula. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 I'm pretty optimistic going forward. I think we may have a legit wintry threat next week...esp for the interior and further north you go, then probably our first bit of arctic air since early in the month...and I wouldn't be shocked if we saw a slight relaxation at some point before another good shot of cold. The N PAC seems to be unstable a bit, so that could cause some periods of reload...but the good thing is it likely will keep the pattern pretty active. If we can keep that good cold in proximity in SE Canada with a semblance of a -NAO, I think we'll have some fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 I honestly have no idea how you red.taggers figure this out...lotta good my degrees do me...lol You think we learn this in class? LOL. Just reading and understanding how it works. Trust me, I'm no expert in this at all. Quite simplified it is a wave or oscillation that helps to enhance convection where it travels. Convection releases heat and this "latent heat" enhances things like jetstreams and down stream patterns such as troughs or ridges. So, knowing where the anomalous convection is will help dictate what the downstream pattern may do. Just realize that this is not always a pattern driver and there are many ways this can be constructive or even Destructive as Tip would say, to a pattern. I think it's just as important not to overemphasize the MJO especially when models sometimes struggle forecasting this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Yeah, I have done some reading up on this in the past. Another cook in the kitchen. But really, i can barely keep up with the mesoscale stuff, never mind what is happening in the Southern Indian Ocean over 30-60 days...lol Mucho respect to you folks. At least rocks keep still for short periods of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Yes and no actually, having sunspots isn't enough - polarity of the plasma is important. It's possible to get a lot of activity and not have it be appreciably a huge problem to the ozone residence if there is less "hand shake" between the terrestrial magnetic field to that of the incurring/passing clouds of solar ejecta. Well, it is true that "even cycles" have less of an effect on the global temperatures due to polarity but he has a point too. The Bz did tilt southward today for a time with the exiting sunspot group on the eastern limb (only managed c-class flares). And now we have a possibly more complex/stronger sunspot group moving in from the western limb, but appears stable for now. There are about 12 numbered groups. It just friggin' figures this happens while our MMW is underway in the stratosphere. For now, I haven't seen the ozone or predictions back off really, so we'll see how the models trend over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 The MJO is definitely important when it is at least a modest wave and as modeled it's ready firing up a good jet in the Pacific. Tip went over the physics why. It's all part of the reason why I want to wait until this weekend to see how things shake out. There is also a warming event that appears to be at least trying to establish an east based -NAO when you look at the levels from 50mb to 500 mb. That's another piece of this crazy puzzle coming down the road. yeah, the SSW is noted ... I have updated that other thread showing that the warm nodes is now burst into detection. What's unknown is whether it will actively propagate, which as you know is part of the AO correlation requirement - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 How well was this current phase predicted 7-10 days ago by the MJO forecasts(ers)? It was ok...nothing great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 It was ok...nothing great. mjo.jpg MJO forecasts are ALWAYS better when there is a real, coherent wave. This is especially true when it is coupled with a CCKW and the CHI fields are more organized. Up until recently, the wind fields were broad, the Walker/Hadley Cells were dominant and there was hardly any organization to it. Different entities were being represented on the graph. The models now are more reliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 And in a quirk of fate... you may recall (tho you were a toddler I suppose that NYC had a snowfall immediately preceding that crazy warm up. I think they had around 4-6 inches across the NYC Metro area, but there was zero cold air behind that. Dec 29, 1984 was a +37 at ORH. Greatest positive departure on record here. Jan 15, 1957 put up a -33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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