ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 that remains to be seen The pattern later next week sucks a lot more for you than it does up in most of this region. We may have some legit chances next week...no guarantee, but there's a legit shot at this point. You can probably sign off for 12-14 days and not miss anything down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 That 1932 warmth extended into NNE. Farmington recorded 55, 62, 55, 55 on Jan 13-16. Only 3 other January days in 120 years have made it above 55, and the 62 is Jan's highest. In addition, the low of 48 on the 14th is 7F milder than any other Jan minimum, the 55F mean tops by 7.5. It comes in at +38.5 compared to the (then) climo, easily the greatest positive departure in Farmington's records, and second only to 12/30/17 (-40.5 with -11/-36/-23.5) for departures in either direction. That is just insane. LL would be going off the rails if something like that were to happen again. The -40.5 would be sweet, though. Frozen pipes for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Nor'easter is a depressed person I think. Hope he gets well. Lots of fun coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 So many people mess up that word on the online BB's and forums. LOL At one point I has to check to make sure I was correct in not spelling it Loose. Terms I always need to check myself on: they're vs their it's vs it affect vs effect beets vs beers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 I haven't even seen it, but sounds positive for the interior. I'd imagine the coast at least from NYC south would really want some negative NAO. It had a ridiculous -NAO for 2 runs over the weekend that was highly suspect...its a day 8-10 op run lol...and didnt have it in last nights run by day 10 either...The mean trough should be in the central U.S. at day 10, that is nothing new here and you sound much more doomsday for the pattern going forward than you need to (big f*ckin surprise) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Nor'easter is a depressed person I think. Hope he gets well. Lots of fun coming. Nope not in the least bit, but I do enjoy how everyone gets worked up when I point out what an OP run of the Euro or GFS show. This is especially true when it doesn’t agree with the group think of this sub forum. Go ND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Nor'easter is a depressed person I think. Hope he gets well. Lots of fun coming. I just lol when folks from away come and share there doom and gloom that does not pertain to much of this region, I have no worries up here at all quite frankly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 That is just insane. LL would be going off the rails if something like that were to happen again. The -40.5 would be sweet, though. Frozen pipes for everyone Dec 29, 1984 was a +37 at ORH. Greatest positive departure on record here. Jan 15, 1957 put up a -33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 it has that look of snow to Ice to drizzle back to snow or something like that. This time hopefully we can get it all the way to s coast that would be nice to see a lot of us get involved w/ a wintery system late next week.I would think we'd want something less amplified and more over running so hopefully we can manage that...until then...temp talk...a lil rain fri nite then more temp talk and shorts sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 So many people mess up that word on the online BB's and forums. LOL At one point I has to check to make sure I was correct in not spelling it Loose. It's not the spelling - I couldn't care less about that... it's the poster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Does this fri nite deal have any hope for mixing or ice for anywhere in the region? And room to trend cooler for anyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Does this fri nite deal have any hope for mixing or ice for anywhere in the region? And room to trend cooler for anyone It could have a bit of marginal snow/ice in interior CNE/NNE to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Looks like we could see a mix up this way before a changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Nope not in the least bit, but I do enjoy how everyone gets worked up when I point out what an OP run of the Euro or GFS show. This is especially true when it doesn’t agree with the group think of this sub forum. Go ND. Well in truth the OP run of the Euro showed some serious snow chances for this region so I'm not sure why you'd want to use that example to troll new englanders... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 It could have a bit of marginal snow/ice in interior CNE/NNE to start. ok bc I saw a model run or two where some qpf snuck into interior sne with what looked like 850's around or below zero fri eve, so I wasn't sure if higher elevations had any hope over e slope, orh hills or monads wrt to even frz rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 I tell you one thing ... these cold vortex into James Bay depictions are going to wind up on red-herring stats in a real hurry if the polar field indices really go ahead and turn-coat on the pattern. This back off, if it continues, would eventually end winter given to the magnitude of this, which is approaching the upper bounds: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 I tell you one thing ... these cold vortex into James Bay depictions are going to wind up on red-herring stats in a real hurry if the polar field indices really go ahead and turn-coat on the pattern. This back off, if it continues, would eventually end winter given to the magnitude of this, which is approaching the upper bounds: The models take it to the top and either kill it or keep it near the vertical midline which would be ok. Of course if they are wrong, we're fuked potentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 that remains to be seen Well dont get this twisted as me saying this hopeful for NY/NJ in the next ~2 weeks...it is not. we are in the New England forum though and these guys have a chance once past the big warm days Sat-Mon...even if next week averages above normal there, they can get away with it, not just NNE has the potential either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Well people like Jerry are closer to normal, and then a good chunk of MA away from coastal areas and NE MA did well in December. Warm, yes...but good in the snow dept. Include RI and CT too. Those small screw zones are not easy to predict. The pattern was not good for cstl snow, but it was moist. Snowfall has been hit or miss in most places. At least the northern mountains look like they should this time of year. But seasonal snowfall - as most everyone acknowledges - is only a very general indicator of the overall wintryness of a winter. I think a lot of the dissastisfaction with recent winter conditions is the prevailing warmth. I know in ENY and the Berks, last year was the warmest or nearly the warmest year on record. And there has been a lot of winter rain in places that are used to getting more snow than rain during the winter. When 5 out of 7 storms bring wet instead of white, even if those 2 snowstorms deliver (as they in fact did for the region I'm talking about), it still feels like you've been screwed. And with more and better midrange models to show us all the potential lurking just beyond the rainbow, it's easy to feel let down when it turns out warm and rainy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Eduggs what approx elevation do u live at? 1k ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 I tell you one thing ... these cold vortex into James Bay depictions are going to wind up on red-herring stats in a real hurry if the polar field indices really go ahead and turn-coat on the pattern. This back off, if it continues, would eventually end winter given to the magnitude of this, which is approaching the upper bounds: I just started twitching when I read that...can you break it down for us John in plain English? What am I looking at? It looks like something my 4 year old would etch-a-sketch. Thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Eduggs what approx elevation do u live at? 1k ? About 540ft in the eastern HV but along the upslope towards the Taconic Ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 The models take it to the top and either kill it or keep it near the vertical midline which would be ok. Of course if they are wrong, we're fuked potentially. Behind every failed pattern change the last winter or two is one of these maps predicting something that craps the bed in closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Euro ensembles are definitely backing the OP run of the frontal passge on Monday. They also have a wave S of LI at D9 with cold enough air over most of NE for a winter thereat. That is so far out that it is not worth worrying about details at the moment, but at least it supports the idea that we may be out of the doldrums at some point next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Behind every failed pattern change the last winter or two is one of these maps predicting something that craps the bed in closer. that prog is the reason for my concern. phase 5/6 are absolute blow torches for the east coast - and we're seeing the impact right now. the hope is it continues around the horn to the better phases 8-3. some guidance kind of kills it at 6/7 which would not be a good thing. but models tend to suck with MJO stuff so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Behind every failed pattern change the last winter or two is one of these maps predicting something that craps the bed in closer. It's safe to say the coast has been waiting over a year for a pattern change, that will produce snow along the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 How is this for an ozone smasher? Better luck next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 It's safe to say the coast has been waiting almost 2 years over a year for a pattern change, that will produce snow along the coast fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Models will accurately hit on the MJO if the CD (cosmic dildo) is in play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 fixed. My last all snow event was January 2011. Obviously that's life along the coast, but for the most part we have not had a favorable pattern for 95 in 2 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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