dryslot Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 A minor warm up is known as a mild up not a warm up FYI Call it whatever you want to call it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 What a torch on Sunday, widespread 60s for all. Congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 What is the record for ORH for Sunday? Is that the day with the weird low record high (like 51 or so?) Can we agree to call this a January thaw finally...lol 33.3F for the high back home... won't see that again for a while No, the vulnerable high temp day was Jan 10th...that is going to be this Thursday which will not be that warm...the brief reprise is on Thursday. We may stay in the 30s that day...or barely touch 40. Sunday's record high at ORH is 62F. That would be tough to beat. That was from an epic warm spell in January 1932....4 consecutive record highs are from that year between Jan 13-16...all of them over 60F including tied for the all time January high temp of 67F. If we can get into the warmth Saturday, then that date is a vulnerable record high of 55F in 1980. Euro says we won't do it...but it wouldn't take much more of a surge to get south of the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 What a torch on Sunday, widespread 60s for all. Congrats I don't know what will actually happen, but according to Euro, GFS, and P&C forecast I don't even reach 50 let alone 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 michigan ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 That's a nice looking overrunning / wave setup days 8-10 on Euro. Can see the shallow bleed of cold air south with boundary over mid atl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Its still an ugly pattern after the weak polar front crosses the area early next week. Especially cloer to the coast, looks like a prime cuttern pattern. Maybe far NNE and Maine could cash in late next week but thats about it for the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Well, I will look more into things later today and get back to you but I think we do orbit around phase 8-1-2 after the looping is over. Even if it is less amplified, I do think a legitimate pulse goes through there and affects the pattern. The orbiting phase 6-7 convection and Mid Latitude pattern will ultimately force the convection east and then that will begin to feedback on the pattern as it relaxes from its amplified state. A classic +PNA / -NAO pattern would then be able to setup, esp. if the vortex breaks down entirely. Ah I see...Wasnt paying attention and I thought you were implying that even an orbit into 7-8-1 wouldnt matter for us, but I see now that you generally meant the 1-2 week period when its in phases 6-7... I was encouraged today to see the models taking it into 7 and killing it, versus late last week when it was 5-6 and killing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cycloneslurry Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 average temps perhaps, the 128-495 corridor had well above normal temps and a below ave december WRT snowfall IMO in most of mass. . not much below but a general 5-8 inch december snowfall and 4 cutters... throw in a punt for the 1'st half of january and there leaves a lot to be desired outside of ORH SW to NW RI and CT where they are doing sign. better. yeah...that was all I was saying...the geography of NE allow for an extremely wide range of snowfall amounts. So...to be clear...this is the second really tought year for lack of snow and cold for the coastal plain...It is clear to see that the higher elevations of MA, RI and COnn have done just fine...but all that came in a week's time even from them. 75% of december was above normal +5-+7 on temps...then there was one week of winter where the coastal plain got screwed like last year and now we are talking anouther 10-12 days until a chance of a mix scenario makes its way in. I can see why it would be hard for people in the hills at 1000 ft with a 10 in pack to understand that there has been an amazing lack of snow from Gloucester down to Scituate and out to 128 for almost two years. I love the idea of a visual for this year...but what would really be amazing to see is a map since Feb 2nd of 2011 where Metro Boston has received less than 15 inches of total accumulation....about 20% of what they should get during that time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 That's a nice looking overrunning / wave setup days 8-10 on Euro. Can see the shallow bleed of cold air south with boundary over mid atl Yeah I'm hoping that leads to something..I feel good about at least some sort of mess or what not, later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 I think the interior def has a shot at something next week. The mid-week event on the Euro has a pretty good icing look to it. Late week would look better for more frozen for more people. Details are everything though at this range. There's a lot of cold air to the northwest and some pretty good shallow cold bleeding down into NE on some of these runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 That's a nice looking overrunning / wave setup days 8-10 on Euro. Can see the shallow bleed of cold air south with boundary over mid atl you guys up there may get some low level bleed (meaning mid levels still a problem for ENE too), but it seems we all have to wait until beyond 10 days for the SE ridge block to get pushed into oblivion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Yeah I'm hoping that leads to something..I feel good about at least some sort of mess or what not, later next week.it has that look of snow to Ice to drizzle back to snow or something like that. This time hopefully we can get it all the way to s coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Sunday's record high at ORH is 62F. That would be tough to beat. That was from an epic warm spell in January 1932....4 consecutive record highs are from that year between Jan 13-16...all of them over 60F including tied for the all time January high temp of 67F. That 1932 warmth extended into NNE. Farmington recorded 55, 62, 55, 55 on Jan 13-16. Only 3 other January days in 120 years have made it above 55, and the 62 is Jan's highest. In addition, the low of 48 on the 14th is 7F milder than any other Jan minimum, the 55F mean tops by 7.5. It comes in at +38.5 compared to the (then) climo, easily the greatest positive departure in Farmington's records, and second only to 12/30/17 (-40.5 with -11/-36/-23.5) for departures in either direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Going to be toasty for pats game Definite break for the Texans. The conditions will be downright Houston-like for mid-Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Euro op has weekly positive nao d7-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 That 1932 warmth extended into NNE. Farmington recorded 55, 62, 55, 55 on Jan 13-16. Only 3 other January days in 120 years have made it above 55, and the 62 is Jan's highest. In addition, the low of 48 on the 14th is 7F milder than any other Jan minimum, the 55F mean tops by 7.5. It comes in at +38.5 compared to the (then) climo, easily the greatest positive departure in Farmington's records, and second only to 12/30/17 (-40.5 with -11/-36/-23.5) for departures in either direction. How warm did it get there in January 1950? That was the only other year where ORH hit 67F in January. We hit 66F in 2007...close but no cigar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 BLIZ someone should make a SNE map and draw in the contours WRT winter snowfall this season. Just to see it represented in a graphic i think would lay out the picture of the have's and have not's. The have nots have a case to make that this has been a shiat winter. i would guess essex county mass over to the merrimack valley and down thru Bos thru E briston and plymouth counties are biting the big one. then i think you see a nice gradient develop over RI and interior central mass back down thru SE cT and to the West of that line you see those who have done well. basically i'd like to see a graphical of current snowfall so we can all take a looksie Look to the annual snow table thread set up by KevInMa http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/37564-2012-13-new-england-snow-total-table/ https://maps.google.com/maps/ms?msid=210765485628029925693.0004d01c44d7a34856663&msa=0&ll=42.395066,-72.235107&spn=3.19251,4.938354 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 EURO once again looses the -NAO that it showed a rew runs ago. Looks like a cutter pattern to me as the PV retreats back north in the 8 day plus period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Accu-blunder on board for some cold-mentions the SSW event as the main driver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Just a stellar January day here in GC West. Full sunshine for the last couple hours and the temperature is frozen at 25 degrees. I just did my two mile snow shoe out back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 EURO once again looses the -NAO that it showed a rew runs ago. Looks like a cutter pattern to me as the PV retreats back north in the 8 day plus period. And once again, you disgrace your alma mater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 And once again, you disgrace your alma mater. really its an online forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 EURO next week looks pretty damn good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Back to using day 10 op runs I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 EURO next week looks pretty damn good. Sure does, Hope its right after my 2 day "Mild" up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 EURO once again looses the -NAO that it showed a rew runs ago. Looks like a cutter pattern to me as the PV retreats back north in the 8 day plus period. It had a ridiculous -NAO for 2 runs over the weekend that was highly suspect...its a day 8-10 op run lol...and didnt have it in last nights run by day 10 either...The mean trough should be in the central U.S. at day 10, that is nothing new here and you sound much more doomsday for the pattern going forward than you need to (big f*ckin surprise) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 A +NAO and -EPO would be a good SWFE pattern even if that panned out. But I do think the NAO goes negative...even if its east based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 The mean trough should be in the central U.S. at day 10, that is nothing new here and you sound much more doomsday for the pattern going forward than you need to (big f*ckin surprise) that remains to be seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 So many people mess up that word on the online BB's and forums. LOL At one point I has to check to make sure I was correct in not spelling it Loose. And once again, you disgrace your alma mater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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