NJwinter23 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 In my view, it really won't matter for the East Coast because the two forces (western PAC convection and PV placement) will force a squeeze play. I suppose it will ultimately matter when we start getting into storm track details and things like that but ultimately it will mean the same thing for us, especially in the Mid Atlantic. New England would probably want to root for an eastward push in the convection to push the ridge further east. We saw this last month where models were overphasing s/w, only to end up weaker and further east. However, I don't think the flow will be as progressive and may trend slower as we move deeper into January. Well that is just wonderful lol. I was favoring the Euro progression and wintry weather favoring the Central U.S. anyway, but I must wonder what in god's name do we have to do to get a snow threat in the mid--atlantic lol? if tis not an MJO into phase 7-8 and +PNA help, then what will do it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Fuk the Midwest. We want it. Sorry Josh....every man for himself here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Fuk the Midwest. We want it. Sorry Josh....every man for himself here! I say the same thing about new england in an unfavorable pattern here Good or bad, I just like reading the met input and analysis here, because you guys have the best of any subforum here imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 any Euro tidbits? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 oh i wasn't implying people should be here posting. i just can't believe how bad it is. I'm just gonna wait until the end of the weekend for any thoughts. Lets see how it looks because I probably share the same concerns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cycloneslurry Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 just brutal how long these patterns have been locking in over the past couple years. I never remember posters andmets being so confident in 2-3 weeks of warm and dry weather before. Sure there were warm spells that lasted 3-4 days on the five day fore case but it just seems as if patterns are locking on longer and longer. I mean this dry and above normal weather is now looking like it is going to last until the 18-19...we just lost almost three weeks of the core of winter with nothing but sunny skies and above normal temps...brutal...just brutal. Will be two years since had anything more than 5-6 days of a combination of cold and stormy occur during winter. damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Lost a lot of snow this weekend, grass is out in some spots, look to see the backyard by the weekend for sure. Time to re up the snow. Sunday's T was nice though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 just brutal how long these patterns have been locking in over the past couple years. I never remember posters andmets being so confident in 2-3 weeks of warm and dry weather before. Sure there were warm spells that lasted 3-4 days on the five day fore case but it just seems as if patterns are locking on longer and longer. I mean this dry and above normal weather is now looking like it is going to last until the 18-19...we just lost almost three weeks of the core of winter with nothing but sunny skies and above normal temps...brutal...just brutal. Will be two years since had anything more than 5-6 days of a combination of cold and stormy occur during winter. damn It won't be dry, now the euro gives a nice May look to the forecast with rain and cold east winds Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 just brutal how long these patterns have been locking in over the past couple years. I never remember posters andmets being so confident in 2-3 weeks of warm and dry weather before. Sure there were warm spells that lasted 3-4 days on the five day fore case but it just seems as if patterns are locking on longer and longer. I mean this dry and above normal weather is now looking like it is going to last until the 18-19...we just lost almost three weeks of the core of winter with nothing but sunny skies and above normal temps...brutal...just brutal. Will be two years since had anything more than 5-6 days of a combination of cold and stormy occur during winter. damn Oh yeah....and Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Does the MJO get into phases 7 and 8, though? The EC and GEFS still kill it on the 6/7 interface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Cyclone, the interior just had a good December. What are you looking for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 just brutal how long these patterns have been locking in over the past couple years. I never remember posters andmets being so confident in 2-3 weeks of warm and dry weather before. Sure there were warm spells that lasted 3-4 days on the five day fore case but it just seems as if patterns are locking on longer and longer. I mean this dry and above normal weather is now looking like it is going to last until the 18-19...we just lost almost three weeks of the core of winter with nothing but sunny skies and above normal temps...brutal...just brutal. Will be two years since had anything more than 5-6 days of a combination of cold and stormy occur during winter. damnMost of SNE is above normal snowfall YTD and last week was below normal. So we have 1 week of above this week and then arctic front comes thru Monday and back to winter.lay bong down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Well that is just wonderful lol. I was favoring the Euro progression and wintry weather favoring the Central U.S. anyway, but I must wonder what in god's name do we have to do to get a snow threat in the mid--atlantic lol? if tis not an MJO into phase 7-8 and +PNA help, then what will do it? Well, I will look more into things later today and get back to you but I think we do orbit around phase 8-1-2 after the looping is over. Even if it is less amplified, I do think a legitimate pulse goes through there and affects the pattern. The orbiting phase 6-7 convection and Mid Latitude pattern will ultimately force the convection east and then that will begin to feedback on the pattern as it relaxes from its amplified state. A classic +PNA / -NAO pattern would then be able to setup, esp. if the vortex breaks down entirely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Cyclone, the interior just had a good December. What are you looking for? average temps perhaps, the 128-495 corridor had well above normal temps and a below ave december WRT snowfall IMO in most of mass. . not much below but a general 5-8 inch december snowfall and 4 cutters... throw in a punt for the 1'st half of january and there leaves a lot to be desired outside of ORH SW to NW RI and CT where they are doing sign. better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Does the MJO get into phases 7 and 8, though? The EC and GEFS still kill it on the 6/7 interface. Not 8 on the current data. The GEFS are most aggressive into 7 before they kill it...Keep in mind though last week the models were killing it at 5-6..now tis 6-7...I'm not sure if it will make it into 8-1 or not, but I do believe the models have a bias of killing waves/slowing them down towards the circle at the end of their outlooks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Most of SNE is above normal snowfall YTD and last week was below normal. So we have 1 week of above this week and then arctic front comes thru Monday and back to winter.lay bong down no model shows an arctic fropa on monday. it's a polar front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 average temps perhaps, the 128-495 corridor had well above normal temps and a below ave december WRT snowfall IMO in most of mass. . not much below but a general 5-8 inch december snowfall and 4 cutters... throw in a punt for the 1'st half of january and there leaves a lot to be desired outside of ORH SW to NW RI and CT where they are doing sign. better. Well people like Jerry are closer to normal, and then a good chunk of MA away from coastal areas and NE MA did well in December. Warm, yes...but good in the snow dept. Include RI and CT too. Those small screw zones are not easy to predict. The pattern was not good for cstl snow, but it was moist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Most of SNE is above normal snowfall YTD and last week was below normal. So we have 1 week of above this week and then arctic front comes thru Monday and back to winter.lay bong down BLIZ someone should make a SNE map and draw in the contours WRT winter snowfall this season. Just to see it represented in a graphic i think would lay out the picture of the have's and have not's. The have nots have a case to make that this has been a shiat winter. i would guess essex county mass over to the merrimack valley and down thru Bos thru E briston and plymouth counties are biting the big one. then i think you see a nice gradient develop over RI and interior central mass back down thru SE cT and to the West of that line you see those who have done well. basically i'd like to see a graphical of current snowfall so we can all take a looksie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Meteorology not modelology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 BLIZ someone should make a SNE map and draw in the contours WRT winter snowfall this season. Just to see it represented in a graphic i think would lay out the picture of the have's and have not's. The have nots have a case to make that this has been a shiat winter. i would guess essex county mass over to the merrimack valley and down thru Bos thru E briston and plymouth counties are biting the big one. then i think you see a nice gradient develop over RI and interior central mass back down thru SE cT and to the West of that line you see those who have done well. basically i'd like to see a graphical of current snowfall so we can all take a looksieOver 90% of SnE is above normal in snowfall YTD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 +8 850's north of boarder and +12 near Albany before front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Euro has the big torch day on Sunday...Saturday looks like a low mixing day with the leftover CAD from Friday. Sunday would be record high temps in jeopardy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Euro has been stubborn though bringing the first front through on Monday...GFS has been more like Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 West goes into the frz next week. Coldest air we have seen in two years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Euro has the big torch day on Sunday...Saturday looks like a low mixing day with the leftover CAD from Friday. Sunday would be record high temps in jeopardy. What is the record for ORH for Sunday? Is that the day with the weird low record high (like 51 or so?) Can we agree to call this a January thaw finally...lol 33.3F for the high back home... won't see that again for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 I still think we could see some sort of mixed or wintry event late next week. And yeah Euro is stubborn with that front. Hopefully closer to correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Euro has been stubborn though bringing the first front through on Monday...GFS has been more like Wednesday.Does it still have that? And wintry threat thereafter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Hr 210 snow event for interior before going to rain esp pike north. Obviously it's way out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Meteorology not modelology what are you talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Going to be toasty for pats game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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