ace0927 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 somebody say something funny. crickets.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 somebody say something funny. Feb will rock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 shift everything 700 miles east at day 7 and we're in the money. High's just keeping settting up off the west coast, trough is in the middle of the country and we get the SE High. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 the fact that it's jan and midday and there are only 5 posters here is terrible. it's like those stretches in spring when there's absolutely nothing going on and no one posts for a couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 the fact that it's jan and midday and there are only 5 posters here is terrible. it's like those stretches in spring when there's absolutely nothing going on and no one posts for a couple of hours. Hang in there, only day 1 of this nightmare. Close the shades, tell the kids to play Xbox. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 just boring too. No storms anywhere it seems. Once we get to this weekend, we'll have gone close to 2 weeks w/o any precip at all. Boring, warm and dry.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 the fact that it's jan and midday and there are only 5 posters here is terrible. it's like those stretches in spring when there's absolutely nothing going on and no one posts for a couple of hours.Temp talk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 The combination of a phase 6-7 "loop" for the MJO and the stratospheric setup really is arguing for another period of near-historic snowfall for the Midwest mid-month. The PV will end up, of course, on our side of the NH as this warming continues, with the "stratospheric tornado" linking up nicely into the troposphere. This will force amplification of the jet as the MJO progresses eastward (and its subsequent N PAC anomalies). The squeeze play in the jet in combination with the Arctic Air available, will probably bring another great round for them. This could bleed eastward, too, into the interior parts of the Northeast (as you all have been speculating could happen). The forced amplification from two forces and changing Tropical Pacific state will bring a general rise in AAM. The lee-side "recovery" post-MT in North America will likely have to be quite intense...i.e...big cyclone for the Midwest and Great Lakes sometime between 1/14-1/18 and maybe again a week later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 just drove thru BOS and i noticed a line of people outside their cars on the tobin. some were actually appearing to jump with a fellow set up in a banana hammock waving them on yelling "let the torch be with you". similiar sites are being reported in Nyc, Philly, BMI, DC. It seems the pattern is getting to lots of folks. I suggest hvy hvy vodka or moving to 2k or higher over the next 7 days, heck maybe longer if there's a cutter in about 8-9 days modeled or longer if the deep interior pattern sets up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 We'll probably have some actual storm threats on the table by this coming weekend. But in the meantime, there is nothing really to talk about except dissecting if it will be 44F or 49F on Wednesday and if CAD will be nasty on Friday. I guess we could speculate too on when the cold air arrives...whether its Jan 15 or Jan 17...but that is not very predictable at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 We'll probably have some actual storm threats on the table by this coming weekend. But in the meantime, there is nothing really to talk about except dissecting if it will be 44F or 49F on Wednesday and if CAD will be nasty on Friday. I guess we could speculate too on when the cold air arrives...whether its Jan 15 or Jan 17...but that is not very predictable at this point. When do you think is the threat next week? Is it Wed or more like end of week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 We'll probably have some actual storm threats on the table by this coming weekend. But in the meantime, there is nothing really to talk about except dissecting if it will be 44F or 49F on Wednesday and if CAD will be nasty on Friday. I guess we could speculate too on when the cold air arrives...whether its Jan 15 or Jan 17...but that is not very predictable at this point. oh i wasn't implying people should be here posting. i just can't believe how bad it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 It is nice to see the cad signal on Friday. That means Saturday will struggle to torch. Sunday will still be bad but the more WR can limit it to 1 day the better off everyone's state of mind will be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Here, Just nothing really to talk about as the upcoming minor warm up has been beaten profusely to a pulp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 the fact that it's jan and midday and there are only 5 posters here is terrible. it's like those stretches in spring when there's absolutely nothing going on and no one posts for a couple of hours. Yep, hope is being lost I think as we all come to grips with the next week. BTW, clouds out over the bay look like they mean business but cant quite produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 BOS: -2.3 ORH: -1.2 BDL: -0.7 PVD: -2.3 Pre-frontal compressional heating FTW down there. For sure. In waa-a-y post-front FVE, noon temp was zero with WCI at -16. Some NNE locations, Jan 1-6: CAR -5.5 BGR -6.8 PWM -3.0 CON -4.0 oh i wasn't implying people should be here posting. i just can't believe how bad it is. Seems like every winter has a spell of total blah. In my area this dead spot has been centered on February the past 4 yr; maybe we can get it out of the way earlier this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Here, Just nothing really to talk about as the upcoming minor warm up has been beaten profusely to a pulpA minor warm up is known as a mild up not a warm up FYI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 The GEFS seem to really be running with the MJO progression into the +PNA phases. You can see that +PNA reflected as early as day 8-9 (which is when the model has it into phase 7) and continuing beyond into the 11-15 day. The question is whether or not that is done too quickly or in error. It is quicker and further into phase 7 than any other model guidance, with the ecmwf favoring a slow down and loop around the phase 6/7 border, like HM just mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 A minor warm up is known as a mild up not a warm up FYI Mon could be torchy mr. blizz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Is 'mild' actually a verb or are we just misusing it on purpose? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 The combination of a phase 6-7 "loop" for the MJO and the stratospheric setup really is arguing for another period of near-historic snowfall for the Midwest mid-month. The PV will end up, of course, on our side of the NH as this warming continues, with the "stratospheric tornado" linking up nicely into the troposphere. This will force amplification of the jet as the MJO progresses eastward (and its subsequent N PAC anomalies). The squeeze play in the jet in combination with the Arctic Air available, will probably bring another great round for them. This could bleed eastward, too, into the interior parts of the Northeast (as you all have been speculating could happen). The forced amplification from two forces and changing Tropical Pacific state will bring a general rise in AAM. The lee-side "recovery" post-MT in North America will likely have to be quite intense...i.e...big cyclone for the Midwest and Great Lakes sometime between 1/14-1/18 and maybe again a week later. not a fan of losing our snowpack later this week, but after this January thaw passes sounds like good times may be ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Think she reads this forum? http://www.fox44abc22yourvoice.com/story/18928154/fox-44-meteorologist-crowned-miss-vermont-2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 I don't know what's wrong with the forum but I can't quote stuff correctly anymore. Anyways just wanted to give a POP to the board for my forecast so far. I chose Albany NY as the verification point since it's central to NH VT and MA. I added numeric labels into the old posts to keep track of the dates. Event 1 temps drop from mid 40's to upper 30's during the week to a 4 pm temp of 30 on Sat. Event 2 temps drop from low 30's previous days to 3 pm high of 24 on Dec. 30 Event 3 temps drop from mid 30's on Jan 1 to a high of 18 on Jan 3...coldest air of season so far. (good shot of cold) Event 4 temps warm from a high of 18 on Jan 3 to a high of 39 on Jan 6. Stated a 15-20F warm up....21F warm up Event 5 temps drop from high of 39 previous day to fct high of 32 today (Jan 7). -7F colder...bust on magnitude of temp fall. 'QVectorman', on 13 Dec 2012 - 14:48, said: With the MJO going into phase 1 and the 5-7 day lag for MJO induced waves to traverse the eastern US it would set us up for a wave to arrive in the east between Dec. 18-20 which is progged on the 180hr GFS and Euro moving across the upper Midwest or Great Lakes. The same wave also ushers in relatively "colder" air and plays nicely into the idea I spoke of the other day in my post about the pocket of relatively "colder" air arriving during the 1) Dec. 21-23 time frame based off of GWO analogs for the eastern US.Using that same concept for the GWO I expect another batch of 2)colder air Dec. 27-30. And Following the spike in the 10 and 30 mb temps that peaked back on Dec. 6 seems we should see a 3)good shot of colder air Dec 30-Jan 3. 'QVectorman', on 14 Dec 2012 - 16:54, said: With the newest GWO numbers today the latest analogs indicate a 4)15-20F warm up in sfc temps Jan 3-Jan 6 compared to prior days highs across Midwest or NE (the Dec. 31-Jan 3 cold episode) and analogs suggest a stair stepped 15-20F temperature fall behind the warm up 1-2 days after that, meaning another 5) spell of colder air Jan 5-8. 'QVectorman', on 21 Dec 2012 - 12:37, said: I extended my outlook through Jan 8 on Dec. 14. I still feel comfortable with those dates and with the newest GWO analogs and latest 10 and 30 mb temp forecast it appears the time frame between Jan 8-10 will see a warm up over the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Mon could be torchy mr. blizzDepends when fropa is. Euro brings it thru Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 same problem with me-when I try to quote, it just ends up as part of the person's post.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 The GEFS seem to really be running with the MJO progression into the +PNA phases. You can see that +PNA reflected as early as day 8-9 (which is when the model has it into phase 7) and continuing beyond into the 11-15 day. The question is whether or not that is done too quickly or in error. It is quicker and further into phase 7 than any other model guidance, with the ecmwf favoring a slow down and loop around the phase 6/7 border, like HM just mentioned. In my view, it really won't matter for the East Coast because the two forces (western PAC convection and PV placement) will force a squeeze play. I suppose it will ultimately matter when we start getting into storm track details and things like that but ultimately it will mean the same thing for us, especially in the Mid Atlantic. New England would probably want to root for an eastward push in the convection to push the ridge further east. We saw this last month where models were overphasing s/w, only to end up weaker and further east. However, I don't think the flow will be as progressive and may trend slower as we move deeper into January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Huge range of snow depth right now. Today is the first day I've seen patches of grass under trees...but there aren't many. Snow depth is anywhere from 3-9" ...it varies a lot. Should really take off tomorrow and Wednesday and this weekend should take care of all of it except for some drifts in protected areas and piles. 36F right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 not a fan of losing our snowpack later this week, but after this January thaw passes sounds like good times may be ahead Yeah I'm not quite sure where the best zone of accumulating snowfall will be but the global forces look good again for the potential. I always like when global factors want to force amplification and cold air is available! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 A minor warm up is known as a mild up not a warm up FYI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Yeah I'm not quite sure where the best zone of accumulating snowfall will be but the global forces look good again for the potential. I always like when global factors want to force amplification and cold air is available! I always welcome the middle road. I dont mind if Im not the jackpot, but I sure better get snowcover back (we have had snow on the ground since Dec 21st which already blows away any duration we saw last winter). You guys saw the last active period coming up, so I take that as a good sign. Just always have that worry that someone will be screwed again. This past time it was Chicago, and royally in every direction. I'd like to see them cash in this next time but not at my snows expense lol. If it was only that easy for everyone to get what we want this literal snowhole has been visible on satellite for 2 weeks now over Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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