ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Here's a list of all -EPO/-NAO January and Februarys since 1970: February 2007 February 2006 January 2004 January 2003 January 1997 January 1996 February 1996 February 1986 January 1985 January 1982 January 1980 January 1979 February 1978 January 1977 January 1971 January 1970 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Semper911 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Sunday on point and click: 52F. Ouch. Sleeveless at the patriots game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 I still like the more relaxed look on the Euro ensembles...I do not want Jan 2004. Keep us in an active pattern (unlike this current garbage) and we usually clean up. I realize the gefs is rather cold...but the PV is located in a completely different position than Jan 04. That PV sat just to your NE...fhis PV is setting up to your NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 I realize the gefs is rather cold...but the PV is located in a completely different position than Jan 04. That PV sat just to your NE...fhis PV is setting up to your NW. The ensemble mean would never show it that far SE at this range, but there is a lot of "stretching" to the SE of the PV over Quebec and Nova Scotia on some of these GEFS runs which would imply there are times when there it an awful lot of confluence there and likely very cold temps. I'm not that worried about it personally. I'm happy most progs have the PV over Hudson Bay right now. I'd rather have that than a suppressed pattern. But we really don't have any idea how all these PV lobes will act once it gets further south. I'm just throwing out the idea that I'd rather have a bit more relaxation which argues for a lot more storminess. I obviously don't want a bunch of cutters, but sometimes that is what you risk if you want an active pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 43 down here already.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 I realize the gefs is rather cold...but the PV is located in a completely different position than Jan 04. That PV sat just to your NE...fhis PV is setting up to your NW. which is great to steer storms towards us...that is why i like this pattern...even if the nao is weaker and east based btw this weekend will probably feel pretty torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 The ensemble mean would never show it that far SE at this range, but there is a lot of "stretching" to the SE of the PV over Quebec and Nova Scotia on some of these GEFS runs which would imply there are times when there it an awful lot of confluence there and likely very cold temps. I'm not that worried about it personally. I'm happy most progs have the PV over Hudson Bay right now. I'd rather have that than a suppressed pattern. But we really don't have any idea how all these PV lobes will act once it gets further south. I'm just throwing out the idea that I'd rather have a bit more relaxation which argues for a lot more storminess. I obviously don't want a bunch of cutters, but sometimes that is what you risk if you want an active pattern. Jan 94 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 i hope the pacific doesn't screw it up. Yeah I'd like to see better ridging there, but that's why I figured if we can get a -NAO..it will help keep whatever is left of the PV closer to us. Last time we did have a -NAO, but no cold in Canada....at least we'll have that now. But, you do want that cross polar source to hang around..not get washed out by the PAC jet. I'm liking what I see so far, but it also would not be wise to understand how it might not be great here. Despite a crappy airmass....I was about 8 miles away from having a normal December..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 If you look at the H5 anomalies, this will be a lot different than December. Yeah in December we had ridging in western Canada at times and a west based -NAO...but you has insane + temp departures. Now, we just replaced that garbage with a PV that has the lowest H5 heights on the globe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 It seems like there's more of a coastal worry than interior . Does it have anything to do with where folks reside , in regards to the differ wrong opinions from next Monday onward nah i'm not concerned about my location vs. the interior. i'm more concerned that the pacific craps out on down the road. right now everything still looks decent. my worry is - whether warranted or not i don't know - that we see guidance start to back off the -EPO look and/or it ends up short-lived. the other thing i think needs to be remembered is that this transition may take a while. i.e. from the current torch pattern to something more favorable. i don't think we're going to see winter come back overnight (i hope it does). fighting the -pna might be tough for a while. JMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 The ensemble mean would never show it that far SE at this range, but there is a lot of "stretching" to the SE of the PV over Quebec and Nova Scotia on some of these GEFS runs which would imply there are times when there it an awful lot of confluence there and likely very cold temps. I'm not that worried about it personally. I'm happy most progs have the PV over Hudson Bay right now. I'd rather have that than a suppressed pattern. But we really don't have any idea how all these PV lobes will act once it gets further south. I'm just throwing out the idea that I'd rather have a bit more relaxation which argues for a lot more storminess. I obviously don't want a bunch of cutters, but sometimes that is what you risk if you want an active pattern. yeah I don't see it a huge concern at this juncture, either. I would think the risk of suppression would increase if a +PNA pops. If you maintain a -PNA I don't see suppression being a big problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 This east based NAO on the Euro is starting to remind me of the period when I was in Europe ..late Nov to mid Dec. It's going to be great for them bringing all the cold down from Eastern Scandy and Russia. Hope we do better this time. When I left for my trip the cold pattern was supposed to be just around the corner here, but you had three weeks of cutters before some cold finally got in before Xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 nah i'm not concerned about my location vs. the interior. i'm more concerned that the pacific craps out on down the road. right now everything still looks decent. my worry is - whether warranted or not i don't know - that we see guidance start to back off the -EPO look and/or it ends up short-lived. the other thing i think needs to be remembered is that this transition may take a while. i.e. from the current torch pattern to something more favorable. i don't think we're going to see winter come back overnight (i hope it does). fighting the -pna might be tough for a while. JMHO The idea of a -EPO has been extremely unreliable recently. Even in 2010-2011 it wasn't amazing. It broke down often. I'm holding out more hope for the -NAO pattern. Even if the EPO craps out a bit, a solid -NAO this time of the year should be pretty good...especially since we will at least get a very good initial dump of cold air into Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Could be interesting in Denver for the game. Looks like a classic thump for Denver on gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 nah i'm not concerned about my location vs. the interior. i'm more concerned that the pacific craps out on down the road. right now everything still looks decent. my worry is - whether warranted or not i don't know - that we see guidance start to back off the -EPO look and/or it ends up short-lived. the other thing i think needs to be remembered is that this transition may take a while. i.e. from the current torch pattern to something more favorable. i don't think we're going to see winter come back overnight (i hope it does). fighting the -pna might be tough for a while. JMHO I think next week while not deep winter might offer up enough cold to have that middle or end of week storm be wintry. I don't think we'll see ball numbing cold until the last week of the month. But if we get that arctic front to press south and set up over the mid atl like it looks like it wants to do next week might turn out fun around here by end of week. Even climo this time of year is plenty cold for snow/ ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 If we want snow next week, we have to hope the energy comes out of the Southwest less concentrated and more sheared. i.e a gradient pattern. Any strong vort is gonna want to cut west with the remaining SE ridge and NAO not very helpful yet. I think next week while not deep winter might offer up enough cold to have that middle or end of week storm be wintry. I don't think we'll see ball numbing cold until the last week of the month. But if we get that arctic front to press south and set up over the mid atl like it looks like it wants to do next week might turn out fun around here by end of week. Even climo this time of year is plenty cold for snow/ ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 the nam had me barely cracking 40 by 18z and it's already 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Leveled off at 44 here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Downslope day I guess.... Holding at 25 here and ovc. the nam had me barely cracking 40 by 18z and it's already 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 the nam had me barely cracking 40 by 18z and it's already 45 Back down to 33F after 34F last hour. Pre-frontal compressional heating FTW down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 The idea of a -EPO has been extremely unreliable recently. Even in 2010-2011 it wasn't amazing. It broke down often. I'm holding out more hope for the -NAO pattern. Even if the EPO craps out a bit, a solid -NAO this time of the year should be pretty good...especially since we will at least get a very good initial dump of cold air into Canada. That's what I'm hoping for, because at least now any -NAO will help pump more Canadian-like air into the region, unlike last time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 widespread 50s for SNE friday to monday? Friday may be a damp, raw day with 40's coastal plain and 30's inland. The weekend does look toasty though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 FZRA in the point/click for here Friday morning. One more day to save our snow pack, but decimation begins on Saturday I suppose. Friday may be a damp, raw day with 40's coastal plain and 30's inland. The weekend does look toasty though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Joe picked a good time to take a break from the board. Think he needed one to regain sanity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 what are the big 4 at for january so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 really nice arctic outbreak on the gfs....but then the pacific retrogrades and the pattern relaxes a bit, but maybe reloads near the end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 what are the big 4 at for january so far? BOS: -2.3 ORH: -1.2 BDL: -0.7 PVD: -2.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 really nice arctic outbreak on the gfs....but then the pacific retrogrades and the pattern relaxes a bit, but maybe reloads near the end? we're going to have a fighting chance with that much cold to the north/northwest. Despite the nuisances we continue to see the 540 line well south of us for a change. Unfamiliar pattern, but maybe it can produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 really nice arctic outbreak on the gfs....but then the pacific retrogrades and the pattern relaxes a bit, but maybe reloads near the end? Looks like msp will finally get a high below zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 somebody say something funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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