NorEaster27 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Euro guidance brings it in Monday and Monday night, while GFS brings it in Tuesday night into Wednesday. I'm on the later GFS camp, but I could see Tuesday as when the front perhaps sags south through SNE. Euro ensembles bring it through Monday, but the thermal fields sort of argue for a little lag with the cold air. IMHO, I would wait until at least Tuesday to be on the safe side. I could see some sort of wintry event next week..maybe a mixed bag of sorts? Could end on an active note.Euro doesnt show any arctic front, at least not on the 0z run. We breifly cool down to -2 to -6 which is still abover normal before torching back up to +6 ahead of a cutter at the end of next week. Is relighwx not updating? It looks like an overall torch from now till the end of 240hrs on the OP EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 I still like the more relaxed look on the Euro ensembles...I do not want Jan 2004. Keep us in an active pattern (unlike this current garbage) and we usually clean up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Euro guidance brings it in Monday and Monday night, while GFS brings it in Tuesday night into Wednesday. I'm on the later GFS camp, but I could see Tuesday as when the front perhaps sags south through SNE. Euro ensembles bring it through Monday, but the thermal fields sort of argue for a little lag with the cold air. IMHO, I would wait until at least Tuesday to be on the safe side. I could see some sort of wintry event next week..maybe a mixed bag of sorts? Could end on an active note.Not bad at all. Lets hope Euro ens timing is right. Then get that winter event middle of week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Still only 28F here. There must have been a quick period of graupel here early morning as the cars and street had little styrofoam pellets on them when I walkied the dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 One thing to note going forward is that the GFS totally got schooled by the Euro in handling the southenr energy for later this week. GFS didn't hold it back...and the Euro did and it was speculated that the Euro was having its typical bias of holding back SW energy too long...turned out Euro was correct. Not sure how that will affect anything later in te forecast period, but I'm keeping in mind that the Euro hanging back energy over the SW doesn't have to be wrong when it comes to the frontal passage early next week. It could be wrong...nobody can really know for sure 7-8 days out, but it was on its own this week with the slower SW energy and it turned out correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 One thing to note going forward is that the GFS totally got schooled by the Euro in handling the southenr energy for later this week. GFS didn't hold it back...and the Euro did and it was speculated that the Euro was having its typical bias of holding back SW energy too long...turned out Euro was correct. Not sure how that will affect anything later in te forecast period, but I'm keeping in mind that the Euro hanging back energy over the SW doesn't have to be wrong when it comes to the frontal passage early next week. It could be wrong...nobody can really know for sure 7-8 days out, but it was on its own this week with the slower SW energy and it turned out correct. Great pickup. Now my interest is piqued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 What's the difference between the correlation coefficient and differential reflectivity in real terms? http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/courses/dualpol/outreach/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 One thing to note going forward is that the GFS totally got schooled by the Euro in handling the southenr energy for later this week. GFS didn't hold it back...and the Euro did and it was speculated that the Euro was having its typical bias of holding back SW energy too long...turned out Euro was correct. Not sure how that will affect anything later in te forecast period, but I'm keeping in mind that the Euro hanging back energy over the SW doesn't have to be wrong when it comes to the frontal passage early next week. It could be wrong...nobody can really know for sure 7-8 days out, but it was on its own this week with the slower SW energy and it turned out correct. I think that was more for next week when we were talking about it. The 00z run from yesterday on the euro was all screwed up with the trough early next week while the GFS kept the trough more in tact and positively tilted, thus a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/courses/dualpol/outreach/index.html Beyond all that stuff it seems quite a bit more sensitive. With Phil's OES the other day even the super high res regular radar was missing it, those two products showed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 I agree with Saki on this 2 on 2 off pattern, could be we only have 2 weeks again of great conditions after this two week mild up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 And put me in the non-Jan 2004 camp...I think we'll avoid those suppression worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 I agree with Saki on this 2 on 2 off pattern, could be we only have 2 weeks again of great conditions after this two week mild up. Long as we get a 10-15 day period each time of threats....and this next one is going to have much colder air close/on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Long as we get a 10-15 day period each time of threats....and this next one is going to have much colder air close/on us. Yea looks promiing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hildy Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Happened to be out and about at 3 a.m. this morning--temp was 29, which was disheartening. Got back up at 7 to find it had dropped to 27--wouldn't it normally be colder in the wee small hours? Wellesley/Natick line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Happened to be out and about at 3 a.m. this morning--temp was 29, which was disheartening. Got back up at 7 to find it had dropped to 27--wouldn't it normally be colder in the wee small hours? Wellesley/Natick line. Colder air is actually moving in, and also low temps tend to be right near sunrise. So, not too surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 And put me in the non-Jan 2004 camp...I think we'll avoid those suppression worries. i'm still more concerned about lack of suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 i'm still more concerned about lack of suppression. Yeah I think for our area...we are probably more concerned about that.. I hope the ensembles build the -NAO back up. Although, east based -NAO and SE ridge would be active here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Once the switch flips early next week it's likely flipped colder and stormy thru most of Feb. by the last week of Feb I see signs of thawing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Once the switch flips early next week it's likely flipped colder and stormy thru most of Feb. by the last week of Feb I see signs of thawing - and then it's time for MORCH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Colder air is actually moving in, and also low temps tend to be right near sunrise. So, not too surprising.It's been a nice post frontal temp drop up here. I left work with a coating of snow and 31F and it's down to 24.7F now. We should stay in the 20s the rest of the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 It's been a nice post frontal temp drop up here. I left work with a coating of snow and 31F and it's down to 24.7F now. We should stay in the 20s the rest of the afternoon. Mild ahead of the front here, but should drop when winds go north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 guidance is not doing a particularly good job with the surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 i don't want to be DD...but i have my worries going forward. maybe just gunshy. i don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 OVC, windy and 24.5F here today. It timed out good here for a cold day...probably not getting out of the 20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 i don't want to be DD...but i have my worries going forward. maybe just gunshy. i don't know. Well it's all NAO dependent. If we see a formidable -NAO..I think we are ok. If it's just a little weenie ridge poking into the NE Greenland ice sheet...then it will be active..but obviously you know the risks. I'm going to hold any thoughts until perhaps the end of the weekend. We should know how it will shake out by then, at least have an idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Most of the time we have failed to cash in on a big -EPO/-NAO pattern, it was because of suppression or a general lack of precip. There are a few exceptions...the coast got screwed in Feb 2007...mostly because Vday went too far west. Most of the time it turned out very well for us though. As long as we actually get that pattern, there is plenty of reason to be optimistic. The EPO has not been overly reliable though, so we'll see how it shakes out. It has tended to break down quickly when it goes negative, though this is certainly the most promising looking progs yet...probably since 2010-2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Well it's all NAO dependent. If we see a formidable -NAO..I think we are ok. If it's just a little weenie ridge poking into the NE Greenland ice sheet...then it will be active..but obviously you know the risks. I'm going to hold any thoughts until perhaps the end of the weekend. We should know how it will shake out by then, at least have an idea. i hope the pacific doesn't screw it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Sounds like it could be interior winter pt. Deux when the crap pattern ends/(takes a break) around next tuesday.not holding out a ton of hope wrt -epo hangin around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 It seems like there's more of a coastal worry than interior . Does it have anything to do with where folks reside , in regards to the differ wrong opinions from next Monday onward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 widespread 50s for SNE friday to monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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