Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Hopefully it was just a blip, but overnight EC ensemble lost a good chunk of the -NAO. Well that's no way to start a Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 i like any snow event likens up the winter blues especially the coast all the pieces of the puzzle usually have to fall in place.peace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Well that's no way to start a Monday. Luckily it didn't change how it looked at the surface much...still have a -NAO, but much weaker. Like I said...it might be model fluctuation, but I would like it to be stronger. The EC ensembles as I noted the other day were very bullish and I said we might see it back off a bit with that. Luckily, the Pacific doesn't look bad. Looks like they are getting ready to build ridging again near AK at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 In 1961? Well forecasted and presumably whatever guidance was available yes. I didn't have Internet corroboration then...lol. We waited until a forecaster of some ilk would appear on radio and read what came off the teletype.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 A few pics from the neighborhood today....+7 day today, still mid-winter scenery as low dewpoints and light wind make upper 30s pretty powerless this time of the year. You can still see the light snowfall we had this morning in some of the pics whitening the snow banks and sidewalks. Nice shots, Will. You might want to add that rotation to your screen saver and keep your shades drawn at the end of the week. This is a screen cap from the Jan 18 th event where a strip of ECT jackpotted with 4-6 . Matt Noyes' "Classic New England Snowbelt" Hopefully it was just a blip, but overnight EC ensemble lost a good chunk of the -NAO. Helluva way to start a Monday morning. Torchy already--33.1/27 off a 'low' of 32.1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Nice shots, Will. You might want to add that rotation to your screen saver and keep your shades drawn at the end of the week. Matt Noyes' "Classic New England Snowbelt" Helluva way to start a Monday morning. Torchy already--33.1/27 off a 'low' of 32.1. Wow, you're warmer than me for once. Congrats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Luckily it didn't change how it looked at the surface much...still have a -NAO, but much weaker. Like I said...it might be model fluctuation, but I would like it to be stronger. The EC ensembles as I noted the other day were very bullish and I said we might see it back off a bit with that. Luckily, the Pacific doesn't look bad. Looks like they are getting ready to build ridging again near AK at the end of the run. Yeah the axis shift even at d10 in the North Atlantic was bothersome to me but overall a nice look. GEFS otoh made me wonder if I'd freeze in my bed as January ended but they did start building the SE ridge at the very end so that could be some serious fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Wow, you're warmer than me for once. Congrats! Seeing the 43 and 47 on my p/c for this weekend makes me weep. Yeah the axis shift even at d10 in the North Atlantic was bothersome to me but overall a nice look. GEFS otoh made me wonder if I'd freeze in my bed as January ended but they did start building the SE ridge at the very end so that could be some serious fun. I can't believe I may be in Orlando for much of this wintery onslaught. Cruel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Yeah the axis shift even at d10 in the North Atlantic was bothersome to me but overall a nice look. GEFS otoh made me wonder if I'd freeze in my bed as January ended but they did start building the SE ridge at the very end so that could be some serious fun. If I had a gun to my head...I would think we would be closer to riding the line. We may get cold, but at least IMHO...I'm not worried about suppression from cold air. East based -NAO with a SE ridge really isn't a recipe for suppression...it's closer to riding the line. Hopefully it means good snow, but I think we should wait until this weekend to see how things look. By that point, we'll have a few days left of this disaster pattern and hopefully a handle on how things shake out. There seems to be some model spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Wow, Mike Only 22.0/21 here Scary week incoming. Close the blinds and hide under covers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Wow, Mike Only 22.0/21 here Scary week incoming. Close the blinds and hide under covers Many ugly temps across the region. Looks like I was 30.7 at 11:30 last night but up to 32.1 by midnight. Up to 33.8/27. Just gross. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Many ugly temps across the region. Looks like I was 30.7 at 11:30 last night but up to 32.1 by midnight. Up to 33.8/27. Just gross. That doesn't seem right. It's 27 here. Check your sensor..It should only get into the low 30's in the hills today with CAA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Just get to Jan 14-15th and winter roars back in. Not that long away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 That doesn't seem right. It's 27 here. Check your sensor..It should only get into the low 30's in the hills today with CAA It's probably right. This isn't a cold shot for the hills either, main thrust is east and into Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 It's probably right. This isn't a cold shot for the hills either, main thrust is east and into Maine. This is one of those days where coast will get into the low 40's and hills will stay in low-mid 30's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 This is one of those days where coast will get into the low 40's and hills will stay in low-mid 30's Not in this set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 If I had a gun to my head...I would think we would be closer to riding the line. We may get cold, but at least IMHO...I'm not worried about suppression from cold air. East based -NAO with a SE ridge really isn't a recipe for suppression...it's closer to riding the line. Hopefully it means good snow, but I think we should wait until this weekend to see how things look. By that point, we'll have a few days left of this disaster pattern and hopefully a handle on how things shake out. There seems to be some model spread. Absolutely...I have no desire for a huge nao that overwhelms and suppresses...I've learned at least that living up here. Keep Canada bitter, keep the SE ridge in play and give us an active southern stream. I will be in London Jan 20-23...might be mighty cold and maybe snowy there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Not in this set up. Ok..all forecasts I've seen keep hills in low-mid 30;s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Finished off this awesome 3 week stretch with 3" at the house and 4" at 1500ft. Seasonal total at home is nearing 50 inches in town.... now we wait and watch it melt for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Hopefully it was just a blip, but overnight EC ensemble lost a good chunk of the -NAO. considering the winter, its no surprise... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 That doesn't seem right. It's 27 here. Check your sensor..It should only get into the low 30's in the hills today with CAA Sensor's fine. Just take a look at the map and you'll see I'm with many others in the area. P/C high is 30, ZFP has upper 20's. If I can nudge down a couple, I'll get there. Not sure any CAA will offset diurnal heating. Might just hold at this balmy temp instead. 33.5/26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Ok..all forecasts I've seen keep hills in low-mid 30;s What I mean is that this is not a downslope set up where coastal areas like BOS and ORH see 10 degree differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Just get to Jan 14-15th and winter roars back in. Not that long away Add 2-3 days and I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 tues and wed are going to be very mild days. i wonder if its widespread 50-55F type of stuff. don't want to jump on a handful of op runs and just a single set of ensemble guidance, but we'll want a better set of 12z runs for the longer term stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 If I had a gun to my head...I would think we would be closer to riding the line. We may get cold, but at least IMHO...I'm not worried about suppression from cold air. East based -NAO with a SE ridge really isn't a recipe for suppression...it's closer to riding the line. Hopefully it means good snow, but I think we should wait until this weekend to see how things look. By that point, we'll have a few days left of this disaster pattern and hopefully a handle on how things shake out. There seems to be some model spread. This is exactly how I feel. I think we return to a similar threading of the needle pattern. It'll probably be colder via climo but I'm not at all convinced the shift is to ice age winter. We have a week to see that unfold if its the case. My bet is the thrust is south from the Dakota's but cutting ne from there into se canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 What's the difference between the correlation coefficient and differential reflectivity in real terms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 That coastal this week looks like it might screw around with torch this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Scooter does the arctic front come thru Monday or Tuesday next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Scooter does the arctic front come thru Monday or Tuesday next week? Euro guidance brings it in Monday and Monday night, while GFS brings it in Tuesday night into Wednesday. I'm on the later GFS camp, but I could see Tuesday as when the front perhaps sags south through SNE. Euro ensembles bring it through Monday, but the thermal fields sort of argue for a little lag with the cold air. IMHO, I would wait until at least Tuesday to be on the safe side. I could see some sort of wintry event next week..maybe a mixed bag of sorts? Could end on an active note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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