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Moving past first week of January General Discussion/banter


Baroclinic Zone

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One of the big take aways from this winter is the "new" GFS can go toe to toe with the Euro.  Instead of +4 and cooling at 8h next Sunday at 12z like the 0z Euro forecast we're +10 heading to +12.


GFS may have had the right idea and the bias of holding back too much energy on the Euro may have come into play?

 

Enjoy the mild-up....I'll enjoy my 50s.

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LOL  Joe has been very subdued in posting positive departures on this BB as opposed to other places.  ;)  But I don't mind ..he just likes to have to some fun.

 

 

Will I don't know Joe at all, have never PM'd or communicated with him at all.  But I don't get why so many of you have a problem with his posts.  If he wasn't posting departures I'd have had no idea what's going on temp wise.  Including yesterday where the departures he posted this morning shock me.

 

It's been warm for a majority of the months the last year or so.  It's impossible to deny.  Departures have been large.  It's part of the weather.

 

The back and forth and baiting though is way over the top.  I wish it would end and barring it not ending on it's own I think there's a majority here that would like to see it ended by moderation.

 

 

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Loving where the models are heading after next weekend. I really don't see huge changes at all to the upcoming week. it's an above normal week by several degrees and the warmest potential days continue to be centered around next weekend. The EC ens had that down pretty damn well all of last week..Definitely not a fun pattern for anyone regardless of how warm it ends up getting...But plenty of reason to get optimistic beyond this.

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Lots of wool winter reindeer sweaters supporting the weight of many skiing hippies in Stowe VT.

 

77" of fluff compacted to three drips and a puddle in no time.

 

Stay the course.

 

Is it just me or is the long term pattern potentially looking more like the pattern(s) we've already had?  IE, we're going to be on the line of the cold/cool/mild stuff with storms running the needle vs us getting plunged into a brutal polar airmass?

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77" of fluff compacted to three drips and a puddle in no time.

 

Stay the course.

 

Is it just me or is the long term pattern potentially looking more like the pattern(s) we've already had?  IE, we're going to be on the line of the cold/cool/mild stuff with storms running the needle vs us getting plunged into a brutal polar airmass?

 

Didn't you just say the good news is that it's not getting pushed back? LOL.

 

It depends on how strong the blocking is in the NAO region and up by AK. As modeled, it's fine...but I could see us riding the line if a few things aren't lined up perfectly. Besides, many times coastal areas are on the line anyways...lol. Lets get later into this week and see where we are from there. I don't think anything changed today...actually feel decent about some winter right now.

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Didn't you just say the good news is that it's not getting pushed back? LOL.

 

It depends on how strong the blocking is in the NAO region and up by AK. As modeled, it's fine...but I could see us riding the line if a few things aren't lined up perfectly. Besides, many times coastal areas are on the line anyways...lol. Lets get later into this week and see where we are from there. I don't think anything changed today...actually feel decent about some winter right now.

 

Yeah...still looks like somewhere between the 15-20th it turns colder with snow chances. The only thing this really affects is my area where the hope was to mute the torch a bit. Instead, we may not even be able to mute the John Mayer.

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A nod to the gfs today. Agree it's been rather credible this season. GEFS initially bought the deep freeze late month while the euro weeklies had palm trees sprouting by 2/1. Then the weeklies and the euro ensembles caved. Today in the d10 area shows the euro trending to gfs to me.

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