ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 OP GFS literally has over a week straight of 850 temps over 0C, lol. That would be an epic disaster. Thankfully its kind of on its own with something that extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 We are damned if we do, damned if we don't.The people that complain about moderation are usually the biggest baiters. I am sure I have had posts removed of mine and I will never complain. What is fair though is if someone is moderated an explanation of what line is crossed would help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 Lets see how it unfolds. Still a chance it tickles south of usYeah...it's still out there for the fine details. The Euro tries to sneak a weak cold front southward through NNE during the weekend, but it has westerly flow accompanying those toasty 850s ahead of the front. The GFS doesn't have the front and just engulfs us in the southwesterlies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 I wish upstate NY had a more active Subforum. I really like your picture last night of the house? Is that yours? Impressive look to the snow cover. what are you trying to say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 Shades drawn, bottles of Jameson, fan on with an ice block in front of it starting Tuesday. Just wake me up the 15th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 I'm still not totally sure how this torch is going to unfold....I could see us getting out of this will relatively low damage to snow pack, or I could see us getting 3 or 4 days with 50+ temps and 40+ dewpoints destroying everything up well into CNE. A lot of model spread on how the details are handled. They all kind of agree on a bit of a reprieve for Wed night/Thursday as a cold front comes in, but then the weekend and early next week details are different.The Euro really only has one terrible day on Saturday and then it sinks the polar boundary south and actually causes a snow.mixed precip event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 I don't have an issue at all, but there are posters that do. I certainly don't want this place to be patrolled by Nazis, but I don't mind if some dumb troll posts are deleted.I agree with both you and osu. I do think there's a fear of repercussions from moderating out blatant baiting posts. It doesn't seem like there's any real disagreement to it taking place, perhaps more volunteer/limited mods are needed. This may be my impression only but at times I feel like we don't get the moderation we would if we all didn't know one another. IE we are given a longer leash than normal and that leads to problems at times.I do think moderated users should get a pm explaining why. Just my take. We all have played a part in one way or another. There's too many good posters, lets hope we can get back to mainly weather and not jabbing one another. The gfs euro battle is unfolding. One has to give soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 I'm still not totally sure how this torch is going to unfold....I could see us getting out of this will relatively low damage to snow pack, or I could see us getting 3 or 4 days with 50+ temps and 40+ dewpoints destroying everything up well into CNE. A lot of model spread on how the details are handled. They all kind of agree on a bit of a reprieve for Wed night/Thursday as a cold front comes in, but then the weekend and early next week details are different.The Euro really only has one terrible day on Saturday and then it sinks the polar boundary south and actually causes a snow.mixed precip event. i think we will lose alot down here, already at 42 and 3.5 inches will melt quickly current snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 Meanwhile, it seems like we are linked up from 50MB to 500MB near the NAo region with ridging. http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ec.php?alert=1&level=50&forecast=f240&lng=eng Also on that FU Berlin site...seems like all systems go to perturb the vortex and allow waves to disturb it since EP vectors are pointed to the N-Pole. Pretty good warming from wave 2 activity as well. It will be interesting to see if it can bring up some ridging in a favorite regions like the Davis Straits and into AK. There does seem to be propensity to lock at least part of the PV in Canada which is good for our cold source, and also this helps spit out shortwaves which ultimately may lead to cyclogenesis off the East Coast. GWO looks to go into more favorable phases for us too. So, you would think things could get favorable for a pretty wintry time. Hopefully they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 It seems this may be the first instance in at least 2 years were the pv split sends the lions share to our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 So much manufactured drama on this board... it's pretty humorous, actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 So much manufactured drama on this board... it's pretty humorous, actually. So true. I think some people forget this is a weather forum...not every day life and liberty. Anyways, I digress on the whole subject. I'm interested in the pattern starting around mid-month...its starting to look like the real deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 It seems this may be the first instance in at least 2 years were the pv split sends the lions share to our side. Yeah, even in 2010-2011, the harshest cold stayed mainly on the Asian side. Really we havent had it since 2005 on a regular basis. We had some episodes in 2009 though too. January '09. Seemed we had several occurrance of the most brutal cold on the globe in the first half of the 2000s.....Dec 2000, Jan/Feb 2003, Jan 2004, Jan 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 I think many rejoice but not till MLK weekend and beyond. GEFS bringing it to us by d12 or so is probably reasonably close to correct. Look at that freaking cold especially in the northern half of the nation onthe GEFS! Heating bills ftl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 Of all the useless back and forth posts this morning, my sole post which was on topic, was deleted. Way to go, control freaks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 I think many rejoice but not till MLK weekend and beyond. GEFS bringing it to us by d12 or so is probably reasonably close to correct. Look at that freaking cold especially in the northern half of the nation onthe GEFS! Heating bills ftl. What I like is we're not seeing any real backing off between runs. Sure the later runs are jamming it more into the MS valley first and I think that's logical (IE it could initially still provide a pattern that's better for PA/OH then us) but the brutality of the cold air is something to appreciate. It's been several years since we've been staring down what appears to be a brutal period as we approach the end of the month. 1/18-20 looks like the transition period to me still, maybe 1/22 if things slow down a bit as they seem to be doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 Doesn't it start on the 14-15th? That's what Ryan's been thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 Doesn't it start on the 14-15th? That's what Ryan's been thinking Yes, I still think post 15th for the better stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 Doesn't it start on the 14-15th? That's what Ryan's been thinking It depends where you are and what model is right. Euro wants to rush it in a bit quicker. GEFS not as much. GEFS delays it probably another 2-4 days. Euro might give the shot at interior SNE and northward of a SWFE...snow/mixed/ice event by Jan 15. Impossible to know if that will happen or not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 I never notice when my posts are deleted.. not sure how people do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 Yes, I still think post 15th for the better stuff. I think it won't be deep winter till 1/18ish. It may be marginally cold for wintry precipitation in CNE/NNE but I think while the torch's back will be broken by the 15th it will take till the 18th at least to go into hard core winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 It depends where you are and what model is right. Euro wants to rush it in a bit quicker. GEFS not as much. GEFS delays it probably another 2-4 days. Euro might give the shot at interior SNE and northward of a SWFE...snow/mixed/ice event by Jan 15. Impossible to know if that will happen or not yet. Usually Euro is slowest Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 I think it won't be deep winter till 1/18ish. It may be marginally cold for wintry precipitation in CNE/NNE but I think while the torch's back will be broken by the 15th it will take till the 18th at least to go into hard core winter. That would be the case since I have to leave for AZ from 1/21-1/24.. I'm sure I will miss a HECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 I think it won't be deep winter till 1/18ish. It may be marginally cold for wintry precipitation in CNE/NNE but I think while the torch's back will be broken by the 15th it will take till the 18th at least to go into hard core winter. but that's fun because you get a mix or wet snow event to lay down a solid crust then put the powder on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 Tuesday and Wednesday are 40s/50s implied on the euro in downslope areas. Much cooler Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 I think it won't be deep winter till 1/18ish. It may be marginally cold for wintry precipitation in CNE/NNE but I think while the torch's back will be broken by the 15th it will take till the 18th at least to go into hard core winter. Yeah it's possible. Like Will said, it's very up in the air about how things shake out and it's tied to the ULL lifting out from TX. It's possible the interior gets a mixed event a little earlier, but that's questionable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 Seems like the euro depiction of the vortex off of Newfoundland mitigates the warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 Seems like the euro depiction of the vortex off of Newfoundland mitigates the warmth. It's a weird setup. Once that ULL moves through, the airmass behind it is super mild. The GFS seemed to want to dive disturbances into the trough and bring lows up the Apps, while the euro held energy off the coast of CA...thus keeping the main thrust of the trough in the Rockies and Plains positively tilted and moving east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 Tuesday and Wednesday are 40s/50s implied on the euro in downslope areas. Much cooler Thursday. what r dpoints tue/wed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 Yeah it's possible. Like Will said, it's very up in the air about how things shake out and it's tied to the ULL lifting out from TX. It's possible the interior gets a mixed event a little earlier, but that's questionable. 12z EC is much faster lifting that ULL out of the SW this run. Nice cold dump into the west d5-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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