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December 19th-20 Storm Thread II


Baroclinic Zone

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You must be referring to my brother, senior heat miser.

45 degree ocean temps will be a problem for me with a big storm, but that's par for the course this time of year. If we get a couple of inches when all is said and done the kids will be happy.

I knew you would come out of hibernation....fire up the RUC!!

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KU expectations 84 hours out are a little high, but warning criteria snow seems like a pretty good bet right now.

Yeah the time range right now still leaves a lot of options on the table..including a total whiff. But I think were are converging on a pretty sizable event.

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Yeah the time range right now still leaves a lot of options on the table..including a total whiff. But I think were are converging on a pretty sizable event.

Just as I like to rule things out before the majority does, I like to go ballz to the wallz when I am feeling one......it's no fun being a human ens mean.....throw your calculator away for once.

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Sunday

My current forecast::axe:

A chance of snow and rain in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon. Little or no snow accumulation. Windy with highs in the mid 40s. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.Sunday nightRain likely. Very windy and not as cool. Near steady temperature in the lower 40s. Chance of rain 70 percent.MondayRain likely, mainly in the morning. Very windy. Near steady temperature in the lower 40s. Chance of rain 60 percent.

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Yeah the time range right now still leaves a lot of options on the table..including a total whiff. But I think were are converging on a pretty sizable event.

Of course we are, all the globals are a big hit :lol:. Sometimes I wish I had the ability to not get emotionally invested until go time like you do.

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Of course we are, all the globals are a big hit :lol:. Sometimes I wish I had the ability to not get emotionally invested until go time like you do.

Its easy to try and get sucked into the weenie emotions...and I do it too...but if you make a habit of it while forecasting, it usually leads to bad meteorology.

We can go back through the last 2 threads and see how many times people were saying the storm is done or "X is going to happen" based on one set of model runs 132 hours out.

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Of course we are, all the globals are a big hit :lol:. Sometimes I wish I had the ability to not get emotionally invested until go time like you do.

Don't let his demeanor fool ya, when he saw those Ens Means I know he had visions of 92 97 dancing in his head. The public face has to be calm and low key, its what he does for a living, me, LET THE BODIES HIT THE FLOOR.

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Of course we are, all the globals are a big hit :lol:. Sometimes I wish I had the ability to not get emotionally invested until go time like you do.

The Ukie was fairly far east, but it got captured by the ULL as it approached Eastport, ME and then retrograded back SW to end up just east of the Cape.
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Its easy to try and get sucked into the weenie emotions...and I do it too...but if you make a habit of it while forecasting, it usually leads to bad meteorology.

We can go back through the last 2 threads and see how many times people were saying the storm is done or "X is going to happen" based on one set of model runs 132 hours out.

Yeah, guilty.

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Its easy to try and get sucked into the weenie emotions...and I do it too...but if you make a habit of it while forecasting, it usually leads to bad meteorology.

We can go back through the last 2 threads and see how many times people were saying the storm is done or "X is going to happen" based on one set of model runs 132 hours out.

I'm pretty sure the 12z EURO is a bit too far west.....I know that will elicit alot of weenies from the CT and W MA crowd, but so be it.....JMHO.

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The Ukie was fairly far east, but it got captured by the ULL as it approached Eastport, ME and then retrograded back SW to end up just east of the Cape.

Lol, ok, didn't really notice the Ukie. Basically the Euro and Euro ENS are a KU 84 hours out and that's all I need to know.

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