Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 No kidding. My concern is that this will be a longitude storm. I don't mind it coming near the Cape, but if it moves wnw and stalls like the op run has, then I likely flip to a cold rain with those ne winds. We'll see, I had a feeling this could happen, but sometimes they tick east during the final 72 hours. The euro took a massive leap west over the last day. does the mean still have that tight packing of isobars on the NW side of the low like it has had the last few days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I just validated cweat (messenger). I guess everyone is here now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 that makes no sense. it would only make sense if guidance had consistently shown a weak storm. there's been signals on every piece of output of a major low off the east coast. it's just been placement that's been in question. the ec OTS runs were still massive bombs. what? you're kidding right? "No sense" eh, no here's how it works: If data "assimilation" (look that up) is sending bad imputs, it will change the outcome of the storm handling down stream. Continuity becomes an issue in both position and intensity, and the variations suffered recently perfectly exemplifies that. There's no debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I love when Will tosses HECS around..Love it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Will - still wanna be on the Cape or Boston for this? Looking pretty good there in ORH. Good times dead ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmwes Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Slightly OT, but you have to wonder if the NFL will take a hard look at re-scheduling the Sunday night Pats-Packers game if it appears by this time tomorrow that an epic storm is imminent. Normally I wouldn't have thought of it, but in the wake of the recent Giants-Vikings snowstorm-related travel debacle I could see the ever-image-conscious league erring on the side of caution so people don't get stranded. At least there's no inflatable dome to worry about. I personally LOVE snow games and think it would be great TV (if not in person), so I hope they end up playing in a MECS. (Of course, Belichick's Pats are 10-0 in snow games....) As a Pats season ticket holder who lives in Eastern CT, I'm THRILLED I sold this game a few weeks ago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 If this storm pans out... HUGE win for the GFS. The GFS wasn't great (lots of flip-flopping) but definitely had a much stronger signal than the Euro. Could not have said it better my self... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Most incredible change on the models since Feb. '07? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I love when Will tosses HECS around..Love it GibbsfreeDancingNakedinStreets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Will - still wanna be on the Cape or Boston for this? Looking pretty good there in ORH. Good times dead ahead. No, I think I'll stay right where I am, lol. I wanted to be in Boston yesterday, but now I'll stay here. A track near Block Island or near the benchmark will hammer my region regardless...but Boston would have some issues at some point with a Block Island track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 Would that help SE MA? Yes. That type of track is in the wheelhouse for SE MA to cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 No, I think I'll stay right where I am, lol. I wanted to be in Boston yesterday, but now I'll stay here. A track near Block Island or near the benchmark will hammer my region regardless...but Boston would have some issues at some point with a Block Island track. I'm incredibly pumped.This 24 hour turn around is amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 No, I think I'll stay right where I am, lol. I wanted to be in Boston yesterday, but now I'll stay here. A track near Block Island or near the benchmark will hammer my region regardless...but Boston would have some issues at some point with a Block Island track. Wouldn't surprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Glad I have the rest of the year off...looking into going skiing Mon/Tue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 GibbsfreeDancingNakedinStreets LOL...there he is wheeeeeeeee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stratuslove Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 No, I think I'll stay right where I am, lol. I wanted to be in Boston yesterday, but now I'll stay here. A track near Block Island or near the benchmark will hammer my region regardless...but Boston would have some issues at some point with a Block Island track. you dont want to be in chelmsford? really? hm. interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 what? you're kidding right? "No sense" eh, no here's how it works: If data "assimilation" (look that up) is sending bad imputs, it will change the outcome of the storm handling down stream. Continuity becomes an issue in both position and intensity, and the variations suffered recently perfectly exemplifies that. There's no debate. i'm not kidding at all. think about what you are saying. so then the GFS was just "lucky" for days on end when it had a low wrapping up underneath ACK? when the ukie had the bomb coming in toward BOS, it was just chance? no...they had the pattern close to right. i'm not saying raobs (and thank you, i know the terminology) don't matter - i've said that repeatedly...but it's an overplayed card. if you don't trust me without my tag yet, that's fine. ask around, there are others who have said the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 you dont want to be in chelmsford? really? hm. interesting Sex and love or snow??? Hmmm tough call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Heavy heavy not worth arguing. Chuck some weenies instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 does the mean still have that tight packing of isobars on the NW side of the low like it has had the last few days? It does, but it has a pretty decent center...not like a 200 miles wide 990mb isobar or anything. It actually has a little spread to the east at hr 96, but looks like pretty good agreement there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Nam doesn't look that great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 i'm not kidding at all. think about what you are saying. so then the GFS was just "lucky" for days on end when it had a low wrapping up underneath ACK? when the ukie had the bomb coming in toward BOS, it was just chance? no...they had the pattern close to right. i'm not saying raobs (and thank you, i know the terminology) don't matter - i've said that repeatedly...but it's an overplayed card. if you don't trust me without my tag yet, that's fine. ask around, there are others who have said the same. Yeah...I don't think the issue is as bad as it used to be with all of the satellite data infused into the models now. It would be interesting to run a model w/ and w/o the RAOBs on the same run to see the differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 I just validated cweat (messenger). I guess everyone is here now? Too funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Well given the rest of the guidance and ensembles from various models...I wouldn't be shocked if the Euro over trended a bit. We've certainly seen it do that before. But I think you are looking fairly good at the moment. The Euro ens mean is a HECS for most of the eastern 2/3rds of New England. Yeah I can't complain too much. It's just a concern I have. I'd take the ensembles in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Nam doesn't look that great It's 18z and well outside of 48 HR's...not a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I could see the keene and jaffrey area do very Well here.. sw NH kinda storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Nam doesn't look that great Let the model run or at least give some analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 LOL...there he is wheeeeeeeee Dec 66 shifted south and east due to sick 570 DS block? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stratuslove Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Sex and love or snow??? Hmmm tough call not for me... for the snow silly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 NAM at 42hrs H500 looks very much like the GFS 12z at 48hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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