H2Otown_WX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 As easy it is to get upset here, and I'll admit I'm pretty damn upset but in reality like you said this probably isn't over by a long shot. The models are just having such a time handling the northern/southern stream shortwaves and how they interact with one another and having issues with how amplified things become in the southern stream. We've seen within the models that there definitely is potential for things to come together and despite the backward trends on the GFS/Euro they still continue to be rather close. One positive thing on the NAM's side was how negatively tilted the southern stream energy became...this is something to watch closely over the next few days...if we can get the energy to take on the negative tilt early enough that would be really beneficial in bringing this thing further west. While it would have been nice to see some consistency here given what we are looking at to get a hit you really can't expect the models to consistently show perfect phasing and perfect amplification run after run. Just a smidge difference in timing in something will throw the models off. I nominate you: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Maine gets destroyed by the retrograde scenario...Ray is getting up into advisory snows by 120 hours, but not sure there would be much more after that. Bal\DC 3 times........SE MA, CT, RI once, NYC once, NNE upslope, M WA and E NY twice....ORH CO once, ME once and now looks to be two. Me.....0. Unreal. Even RIC got a decent event today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Finally got in here just in time to see the train derail. Fear not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 He said "They were both pictures of urinating off the side of a deck." LOL. Why the hell would I ever post pictures of that? It was me skiing...lol I could tell what it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I nominate you: It's just all about timing here and it's real close...were still "far enough" out to where the small differences in timing could mean getting nothing to getting over a foot of snow...it's just way too early to bail and way to early to really make any sort of bold call. Just have to be patient and continue to watch how the models handle the important factors at play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Curious as to what could cause such a major shift in the supposedly steadfast Euro - Sounds like the PV setup is night and day compared with it's previous run. Any ideas on what butterflies we need to get flapping to right the ship? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Maine gets destroyed by the retrograde scenario...Ray is getting up into advisory snows by 120 hours, but not sure there would be much more after that. Yeah, 850's -4/-8c, 2m temps were 30's briefly, Still don't like the retro idea......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongbeerlikely Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 This is why I moved to the west coast. Couldn't handle the heart break. 12 years later and I still haven't timed an east coast winter visit right. However, a visit to Tahoe never whiffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 It's just all about timing here and it's real close...were still "far enough" out to where the small differences in timing could mean getting nothing to getting over a foot of snow...it's just way too early to bail and way to early to really make any sort of bold call. Just have to be patient and continue to watch how the models handle the important factors at play. Maybe the 06z NAM can lead the charge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Curious as to what could cause such a major shift in the supposedly steadfast Euro - Sounds like the PV setup is night and day compared with it's previous run. Any ideas on what butterflies we need to get flapping to right the ship? lol It would have snowed alot here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Well, I'm going to loose it ray style if this doesn't give us heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Five hours apart sick deform up Wills fanny If only it wasn't the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I could tell what it was. LOL its me pissing off a deck obviously http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=1633399909883&set=a.1494442356031.2062075.1083210030 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 It would have snowed alot here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I am worried about Kev, he is going to lose it. This is far from over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Bal\DC 3 times........NYC once, M WA and E NY twice....ORH CO once, ME once and now looks to be two. Me.....0. Unreal. Even RIC got a decent event today. Get on board my train for 24 hours...if you don't like it, then I'll concede...but we are seeing massive shifts from run to run...if the Euro ensemble mean at 84 hours is going to flip by 300 miles, we know there is something very difficult about this system. Even the vaunted Euro doesn't have enough armor to protect itself from this volatile pattern...the run to run swings from every model (including the Euro) have been staggering. Wes mentioned it on the radio show and I agreed....this is a very difficult pattern to resolve. One thing majorly in our favor is that this trough on EVERY model is going negative with a decent vortmax at the based of it...whether its Virginia or south carolina, I think that would still produce a good event here...with differences being just how big and how far west. I will not be surprised to see future guidance come in with a much better looking sfc as it reflects off the better sampling of the vortmax at the base of the trough. Give it a bit of time...we still have some ways to go...the same reason I told you were being way bullish on the HECS is the same reason now I'm telling to not get too worked up over one model suite. The changes have been drastic. We can probably go through about 500 posts in the past 3 or 4 days with people claiming victory or defeat based on one run....obviously as we get closer, it matters more what they show, but we still have a lot of time before its a closed deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 LOL its me pissing off a deck obviously While on skies and in a ski suit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I nickle and dime my way to 0.50" QPF. It takes so long to get there my snow depth may never exceed 2-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 While on skies and in a ski suit yes, this http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=1633399909883&set=a.1494442356031.2062075.1083210030 would be one shtty deck... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I don't think this is over by a long shot despite the the Euro solution...the models have clearly been flip flopping in this setup as Wes and I discussed on the radio show. As much as you are obviously rooting for a whiff, we'll see what the weather actually has to say about it. I'm not in the camp of marrying any solution when we are seeing flips like this...otherwise it leads to poor forecasting verification. the southern low is a recent development... why should it be done changing? i am rooting for it to deepen more in the gulf and slow down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Give it a bit of time...we still have some ways to go. Agree. Our PAC NW s/w isn't even onshore yet. Still a lot of time to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Get on board my train for 24 hours...if you don't like it, then I'll concede...but we are seeing massive shifts from run to run...if the Euro ensemble mean at 84 hours is going to flip by 300 miles, we know there is something very difficult about this system. Even the vaunted Euro doesn't have enough armor to protect itself from this volatile pattern...the run to run swings from every model (including the Euro) have been staggering. Wes mentioned it on the radio show and I agreed....this is a very difficult pattern to resolve. One thing majorly in our favor is that this trough on EVERY model is going negative with a decent vortmax at the based of it...whether its Virginia or south carolina, I think that would still produce a good event here...with differences being just how big and how far west. I will not be surprised to see future guidance come in with a much better looking sfc as it reflects off the better sampling of the vortmax at the base of the trough. Give it a bit of time...we still have some ways to go...the same reason I told you were being way bullish on the HECS is the same reason now I'm telling to not get too worked up over one model suite. The changes have been drastic. We can probably go through about 500 posts in the past 3 or 4 days with people claiming victory or defeat based on one run....obviously as we get closer, it matters more what they show, but we still have a lot of time before its a closed deal. This is probably one of the most annoying type of posts. Not sure how you can claim victory or defeat on a model run that's several days out...it just doesn't make any sense whatsoever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Get on board my train for 24 hours...if you don't like it, then I'll concede...but we are seeing massive shifts from run to run...if the Euro ensemble mean at 84 hours is going to flip by 300 miles, we know there is something very difficult about this system. Even the vaunted Euro doesn't have enough armor to protect itself from this volatile pattern...the run to run swings from every model (including the Euro) have been staggering. Wes mentioned it on the radio show and I agreed....this is a very difficult pattern to resolve. One thing majorly in our favor is that this trough on EVERY model is going negative with a decent vortmax at the based of it...whether its Virginia or south carolina, I think that would still produce a good event here...with differences being just how big and how far west. I will not be surprised to see future guidance come in with a much better looking sfc as it reflects off the better sampling of the vortmax at the base of the trough. Give it a bit of time...we still have some ways to go...the same reason I told you were being way bullish on the HECS is the same reason now I'm telling to not get too worked up over one model suite. The changes have been drastic. We can probably go through about 500 posts in the past 3 or 4 days with people claiming victory or defeat based on one run....obviously as we get closer, it matters more what they show, but we still have a lot of time before its a closed deal. This year, whenever the merrygoround spins me into a pool of vomit, it stops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Get on board my train for 24 hours...if you don't like it, then I'll concede...but we are seeing massive shifts from run to run...if the Euro ensemble mean at 84 hours is going to flip by 300 miles, we know there is something very difficult about this system. Even the vaunted Euro doesn't have enough armor to protect itself from this volatile pattern...the run to run swings from every model (including the Euro) have been staggering. Wes mentioned it on the radio show and I agreed....this is a very difficult pattern to resolve. One thing majorly in our favor is that this trough on EVERY model is going negative with a decent vortmax at the based of it...whether its Virginia or south carolina, I think that would still produce a good event here...with differences being just how big and how far west. I will not be surprised to see future guidance come in with a much better looking sfc as it reflects off the better sampling of the vortmax at the base of the trough. Give it a bit of time...we still have some ways to go...the same reason I told you were being way bullish on the HECS is the same reason now I'm telling to not get too worked up over one model suite. The changes have been drastic. We can probably go through about 500 posts in the past 3 or 4 days with people claiming victory or defeat based on one run....obviously as we get closer, it matters more what they show, but we still have a lot of time before its a closed deal. +1 This could be a memorable lead up if this storm somehow finds a way to deliver (or completely fail for that matter). Heavy Heavy model swings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Agree. Our PAC NW s/w isn't even onshore yet. Still a lot of time to go. we forgot what la nina's are like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I am worried about Kev, he is going to lose it. This is far from over LOL, the 10 point swandive. Steady as she goes. Something will pop Sunday, everybody will end up with some new snow. How much yet to be determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Agree. Our PAC NW s/w isn't even onshore yet. Still a lot of time to go. Phil is gonna flip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 This is probably one of the most annoying type of posts. Not sure how you can claim victory or defeat on a model run that's several days out...it just doesn't make any sense whatsoever. We see it every single day on here...even in summer. Some people think they have it all figured out or are smarter than the models...it just doesn't work that way. Usually a skilled forecaster can augment the model solutions into a better forecast (I.E knowing their biases and larger scale pattern)...but that is impossible right now with so many moving parts. The one thing that makes me semi-confident is that we have a neg tilted trough with a "trending stronger" vortmax at the base of it...we'll see. I think that will normally do ok for us...not a HECS unless the whole things closes off south of us...but at least a moderate event. But every scenario from a HECS to a whiff is still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 What now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Well, the new EURO monthly is out and it looks pretty good: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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