December 19th-20 Storm Thread II

[ORH_wxman]

Dude this storm misses nearly everyone on the 0z GFS except for a narrow sliver of land that you happen to inhabit, whereas the 12z ECM showed a 2' HECS, basically another version of January 1996, with RIC-BOS getting creamed. Moreover, most of the precipitation on the GFS is over Cape Cod where easterly winds are scouring out the cold air; we don't have a strong arctic high to our north to keep the flow backed, so they'd quickly change over to rain being surrounded by SSTs in the 40s. All of the models have trended east...GFS, NAM, UKMET, etc. Not a good sign. Another jump east and you are totally out of the QPF too.

The eastern half of SNE sees warning criteria on the GFS.

[dendrite]

Dude this storm misses nearly everyone on the 0z GFS except for a narrow sliver of land that you happen to inhabit, whereas the 12z ECM showed a 2' HECS, basically another version of January 1996, with RIC-BOS getting creamed. Moreover, most of the precipitation on the GFS is over Cape Cod where easterly winds are scouring out the cold air; we don't have a strong arctic high to our north to keep the flow backed, so they'd quickly change over to rain being surrounded by SSTs in the 40s. All of the models have trended east...GFS, NAM, UKMET, etc. Not a good sign. Another jump east and you are totally out of the QPF too.

Hey guess what? We live in New England and we're in the New England forum.

[Organizing Low]

Yeah that trough just keeps hanging back doesn't it?

[CTWeatherFreak]

anybody have the canadian?

[MaineJayhawk]

Dude this storm misses nearly everyone on the 0z GFS except for a narrow sliver of land that you happen to inhabit, whereas the 12z ECM showed a 2' HECS, basically another version of January 1996, with RIC-BOS getting creamed. Moreover, most of the precipitation on the GFS is over Cape Cod where easterly winds are scouring out the cold air; we don't have a strong arctic high to our north to keep the flow backed, so they'd quickly change over to rain being surrounded by SSTs in the 40s. All of the models have trended east...GFS, NAM, UKMET, etc. Not a good sign. Another jump east and you are totally out of the QPF too.

0z GFS trended west from its 18z counterpart and gave me warning criteria snow. All that really matters is the Euro anyway. Cheers!

[CoastalWx]

Dude this storm misses nearly everyone on the 0z GFS except for a narrow sliver of land that you happen to inhabit, whereas the 12z ECM showed a 2' HECS, basically another version of January 1996, with RIC-BOS getting creamed. Moreover, most of the precipitation on the GFS is over Cape Cod where easterly winds are scouring out the cold air; we don't have a strong arctic high to our north to keep the flow backed, so they'd quickly change over to rain being surrounded by SSTs in the 40s. All of the models have trended east...GFS, NAM, UKMET, etc. Not a good sign. Another jump east and you are totally out of the QPF too.

It seems like you are only happy if you get clobbered. If Dobbs Ferry gets less than 6" it must be because of the GOA low or the fact that we don't have a 600 decameter ridge over the west coast.

[DomNH]

.

Yeah, this run missed almost everybody. Dead ratter.

[Bryan]

Living down in Kingston, this latest run has me really really excited!!

[Bostonseminole]

Dude this storm misses nearly everyone on the 0z GFS except for a narrow sliver of land that you happen to inhabit, whereas the 12z ECM showed a 2' HECS, basically another version of January 1996, with RIC-BOS getting creamed. Moreover, most of the precipitation on the GFS is over Cape Cod where easterly winds are scouring out the cold air; we don't have a strong arctic high to our north to keep the flow backed, so they'd quickly change over to rain being surrounded by SSTs in the 40s. All of the models have trended east...GFS, NAM, UKMET, etc. Not a good sign. Another jump east and you are totally out of the QPF too.

[Baroclinic Zone]

[CT Rain]

I get my heaviest snow on Wednesday on the GFS lol

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Dude this storm misses nearly everyone on the 0z GFS except for a narrow sliver of land that you happen to inhabit, whereas the 12z ECM showed a 2' HECS, basically another version of January 1996, with RIC-BOS getting creamed. Moreover, most of the precipitation on the GFS is over Cape Cod where easterly winds are scouring out the cold air; we don't have a strong arctic high to our north to keep the flow backed, so they'd quickly change over to rain being surrounded by SSTs in the 40s. All of the models have trended east...GFS, NAM, UKMET, etc. Not a good sign. Another jump east and you are totally out of the QPF too.

But ironically another jump east may bring more snow but far less QPF to me.

Last year I learned in the right circumstance it can snow even here with 43-45 degree SST's. We are at 44-45 now. Ryan is probably right about the CCB, but within a mile or two of the coast even that cannot overcome that much wind over that warm of water.

Been an interesting ride so far,

MARTHAS VNYRD LGT SNOW 31 23 72 N6

[Organizing Low]

Yeah, this run missed almost everybody. Dead ratter.

haha

yeah Dom, totally thats why i posted that

im not worried in the slightest.

if im not worried, i dont know how the hell anyone in new england is worrried

cuz you guys are going to get a snowstorm, and a good chance of being CRUSHED.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Hey guess what? We live in New England and we're in the New England forum.

With about 4-5 million people who would be impacted in MA/CT/RI/NH

[Clinch Leatherwood]

For eastern areas that looks pretty good, but for a lot of others it's the drawn out never ending stuff that often vanishes as the ultimate solution becomes more clear.

You're in a great spot I think barring any more moves SE.

Snowing out on the SE part of the cape.

[ORH_wxman]

Hey guess what? We live in New England and we're in the New England forum.

Yeah I don't get it...the major population areas of eastern SNE all get warning criteria snow but it doesn't matter because its not a large sliver of land?

This is the NE forum where most of those people live.

[DavisStraight]

Harvey up to 80%, Kevin L seemed pretty bullish at 10.

[ChrisM]

I get my heaviest snow on Wednesday on the GFS lol

ECMWF.

Don't fret.

[Snow Bow]

At least when I meltdown, I don't try bring everyone else down with me.

+1 Agreed What a negative nancy

[MaineJayhawk]

[DomNH]

See you all at 6:10 AM. A bit apprehensive of the Euro, but we shall see.

[nzucker]

Hey guess what? We live in New England and we're in the New England forum.

It's a decent hit for eastern New England verbatim but a lot of the QPF posted in those maps comes from the TROWAL/Norlun type of feature and I wouldn't trust that to be modeled correctly 120 hours out, especially by the GFS. I've seen those modeled a lot for here and they have a strange habit of disappearing when the time comes for the snowflakes to hit the ground. It's amazing how everyone jumps on you when you state the obvious: this wasn't a great run, and it hasn't been a great trend on the models this afternoon/evening. People were locking in a massive blizzard last night and today with the ECM trends but I still favor a grazing storm or a miss in this set-up...I've said that before and gotten so much flack for it. This run is basically a nuisance event for anyone west of ORH with long duration light snows that probably don't even accumulate that heavily in valleys, and the rest of the I-95 corridor gets zilch. I honestly don't care if I get the snow but I'm just pointing out what direction we may be going in.

[Cold Miser]

[DomNH]

It's a decent hit for eastern New England verbatim but a lot of the QPF posted in those maps comes from the TROWAL/Norlun type of feature and I wouldn't trust that to be modeled correctly 120 hours out, especially by the GFS. I've seen those modeled a lot for here and they have a strange habit of disappearing when the time comes for the snowflakes to hit the ground. It's amazing how everyone jumps on you when you state the obvious: this wasn't a great run, and it hasn't been a great trend on the models this afternoon/evening. People were locking in a massive blizzard last night and today with the ECM trends but I still favor a grazing storm or a miss in this set-up...I've said that before and gotten so much flack for it. This run is basically a nuisance event for anyone west of ORH with long duration light snows that probably don't even accumulate that heavily in valleys, and the rest of the I-95 corridor gets zilch. I honestly don't care if I get the snow but I'm just pointing out what direction we may be going in.

I get like an additional .1'' of QPF from the trowal...6-12'' for most of Eastern NE this run and it wouldn't take much adjustment for it to be a massive hit. How that is a bad run is beyond me.

[WeatherX]

Looks like a widespread snowsstorm for SNE.....It looks particular good for Boston......long time coming

[DavisStraight]

All of the models have trended east...GFS, NAM, UKMET, etc. Not a good sign.

The GFS and NAM trended west

[Ginx snewx]

For Socks

I’m not afraid to take a stand

Everybody come take my hand

We’ll walk this road together, through the storm

Whatever weather, cold or warm

Just let you know that, you’re not alone

Holla if you feel like you’ve been down the same road

Yeah, It’s been a ride…

I guess i had to go to that place to get to this one

Now some of you might still be in that torch place

For Socks

If you’re trying to get out, just follow me

I’ll get you there

You can try and read my forecast off of this paper before I lay ‘em

But you won’t take the cold out of these words before I say ‘em

Cause ain’t no way I’m gonna let you stop me from causing mayhem

When I say I’ma do something I do it, I don’t give a damn

What you think, I’m doing this for me? so f-ck the warministas

Feed them beans, there all gassed up, if they think its stopping me

I’mma say what I set it out to be.

I’m not afraid to take a stand

Everybody come take my hand

We’ll walk this road together, through the storm

Whatever weather, cold or warm

Just let you know that, you’re not alone

Holla if you feel like you’ve been down the same road

[HoarfrostHubb]

Looks like a widespread snowsstorm for SNE.....It looks particular good for Boston......long time coming

294 days for any measurable... How long since the last good event?

[nzucker]

But ironically another jump east may bring more snow but far less QPF to me.

Last year I learned in the right circumstance it can snow even here with 43-45 degree SST's. We are at 44-45 now. Ryan is probably right about the CCB, but within a mile or two of the coast even that cannot overcome that much wind over that warm of water.

It can definitely snow out there at this time of year with SSTs; Martha's Vineyard started as snow in the 11/8 storm. As you say, you just want the low to pass further to the east so you get colder 850s and weaker easterly winds which could change you over. I think the heavy QPF runs are probably going to be mostly rain for you; there's no way Cape Cod could stay snow with the scenario the GFS shows despite the dynamics of the CCB.

For eastern areas that looks pretty good, but for a lot of others it's the drawn out never ending stuff that often vanishes as the ultimate solution becomes more clear.

Yup people are posting these QPF maps to contradict me but a lot of that stuff comes from a Norlun-like feature around 120 and we know how those go. Also, a lot of frames of light QPF usually doesn't add up to much in lower elevations as you say.

[CT Rain]

I think we'll see the Euro come east... maybe by a decent bit tonight.

I think all the options are still on the table. A whiff is still possible as is a total clobbering. I could see models come back west by tomorrow night... wouldn't surprise me.

Such complex interactions going on it's going to be tough to figure this out until at least the 00z suite tomorrow.