MaineJayhawk Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Nice long-lasting event. GFS came west. As we thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 No.....you and some others thought this run would do it.....he said it wouldn't. If the EURO trends to a mod hit tonight, then I may tone down. It came close, but I think we said just not enough. It's about 40-50 miles from destroying us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I kind of pulled a Kev in that I didn't mention the context in which you tossed out '78. lol Yeah don't get me in trouble, lol. I don't want to be the person who everyone says this will be another '78 or April '97. I'll say it if the time comes, but right now, we are still just trying to get this back to looking decent on a lot of guidance. At this point I'll take a moderate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Back from the dog walk...GFS improved but it could be better. Don't know how it can be that far east with that H5 but I'd take it given the fact that I'd probably end up with 6-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 wow...looks nearly identical to SLP placement as the NAM at 84 HR We'll know if we are getting a monster in 2 hrs.....if the EURO follows suite and looks like them, I'll stand down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 oh i didn't think it was going to be better than 12z... but sure beats 18z. Definite weenie solution for the Cape and Se Mass here. I don't think the Cape would do that well, especially further out. GFS 2m temps show it's nearly 40F there...I know these values are notoriously inaccurate but this track does introduce a lot of E/NE flow which isn't so great at this time of year for Cape Cod. Overall a pretty bad run: the East Coast doesn't get pounded with a blizzard, Boston gets only a moderate event to barely compensate for a crappy month, and the areas with heavy QPF change to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 God the GFS is Sooooo close to a HSNES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Not as nice as 12z... but still looks decent You saw what I said elsewhere a day or two ago. I think Bos/PVD SE MA are going to be the winners for QPF. I'm not real sure it can snow a lot down here in this setup yet. Somewhere in the boston to PVD corridor should do pretty well, esp around Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I kind of pulled a Kev in that I didn't mention the context in which you tossed out '78. lol You should be in sales For me, being rather new to the board, it is exciting to see all of this unfold. Was not here for the last biggie for Mass... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Back from the dog walk...GFS improved but it could be better. Don't know how it can be that far east with that H5 but I'd take it given the fact that I'd probably end up with 6-12. It's a step in the right direction. There is some volatility west or east. I'm happy with the gfs for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 God the GFS is Sooooo close to a HSNES gesundheit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 We'll know if we are getting a monster in 2 hrs.....if the EURO follows suite and looks like them, I'll stand down. Was just about to say this. I think that it's pretty certain that at least eastern sections get hit...how much we'll worry about as we get closer but time may be quickly ticking for western areas. Tonight's euro will be pretty big though, if it trends with the NAM/GFS then I think at least my area can discount a big storm although a few to several inches could still be in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 When does it STOP snowing... Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I don't think the Cape would do that well, especially further out. GFS 2m temps show it's nearly 40F there...I know these values are notoriously inaccurate but this track does introduce a lot of E/NE flow which isn't so great at this time of year for Cape Cod. Overall a pretty bad run: the East Coast doesn't get pounded with a blizzard, Boston gets only a moderate event to barely compensate for a crappy month, and the areas with heavy QPF change to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Solid warning event on the GFS compared to 1-3'' on the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 You saw what I said elsewhere a day or two ago. I think Bos/PVD SE MA are going to be the winners for QPF. I'm not real sure it can snow a lot down here in this setup yet. Somewhere in the boston to PVD corridor should do pretty well, esp around Bob. Yeah I agree. I think we're seeing most models step back from an early enough phase to clobber most of SNE. Cape will have some problems though verbatim on the GFS I think many areas probably are just cold enough to snow in the CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 It was 2003. Time is flying. Woah. I guess so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Wow..and now to add to it the UK is 200 miles further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Well good luck folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I don't think the Cape would do that well, especially further out. GFS 2m temps show it's nearly 40F there...I know these values are notoriously inaccurate but this track does introduce a lot of E/NE flow which isn't so great at this time of year for Cape Cod. Overall a pretty bad run: the East Coast doesn't get pounded with a blizzard, Boston gets only a moderate event to barely compensate for a crappy month, and the areas with heavy QPF change to rain. Excuse me? Did you look at GFS? I'm seeing an inch of qpf through 120 of which at least 3/4 is a good thump of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I don't think the Cape would do that well, especially further out. GFS 2m temps show it's nearly 40F there...I know these values are notoriously inaccurate but this track does introduce a lot of E/NE flow which isn't so great at this time of year for Cape Cod. Overall a pretty bad run: the East Coast doesn't get pounded with a blizzard, Boston gets only a moderate event to barely compensate for a crappy month, and the areas with heavy QPF change to rain. It won't snow anywhere near the coast in the GFS scenario down here. What I mean is back a few miles even if it cooled enough from the water from Boston south it would be almost impossible to see much significant snow in that situation. The water is just too warm and there's no big high pressure. As the low moves away it would probably change back over to snow. We had a storm several years ago very early that buried areas back from the water even down towards west wareham. My front yard it rained, back yard it snowed. If everything came together I could see Middleboro doing okay down alone Rte 28 and points NW that get 5-10 miles back from the water, but not here. Not that excited, a lot of rain. Really wanted to see it well NW so we saw a lot of snow on the slopes. We can do well here from moderate events early. But raging NE winds forget it down on the Cape and SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Yeah I agree. I think we're seeing most models step back from an early enough phase to clobber most of SNE. Cape will have some problems though verbatim on the GFS I think many areas probably are just cold enough to snow in the CCB. Yeah I think the Cape would get pasted....if you look at the soundings on the GFS, the WBZ height is like 980mb...just above the sfc. Given the GFS is notorious for torching the 2m temps, I would bet on snow if the GFS solution came to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Sunday through Tuesday snow event for most...lingering snow showers thru Weds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 bump Approx: 6-9pm Gillette time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 You saw what I said elsewhere a day or two ago. I think Bos/PVD SE MA are going to be the winners for QPF. I'm not real sure it can snow a lot down here in this setup yet. Somewhere in the boston to PVD corridor should do pretty well, esp around Bob. These storms are in my wheelhouse. This is why I love em. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 When does it STOP snowing... Wednesday? Yeah that trough just keeps hanging back doesn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Dude this storm misses nearly everyone on the 0z GFS except for a narrow sliver of land that you happen to inhabit, whereas the 12z ECM showed a 2' HECS, basically another version of January 1996, with RIC-BOS getting creamed. Moreover, most of the precipitation on the GFS is over Cape Cod where easterly winds are scouring out the cold air; we don't have a strong arctic high to our north to keep the flow backed, so they'd quickly change over to rain being surrounded by SSTs in the 40s. All of the models have trended east...GFS, NAM, UKMET, etc. Not a good sign. Another jump east and you are totally out of the QPF too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Wow..and now to add to it the UK is 200 miles further east That's a pretty significant jump eastward...could mean we see the euro jump east as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Yeah that trough just keeps hanging back doesn't it? TROWAL FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Dude this storm misses nearly everyone on the 0z GFS except for a narrow sliver of land that you happen to inhabit, whereas the 12z ECM showed a 2' HECS, basically another version of January 1996, with RIC-BOS getting creamed. Moreover, most of the precipitation on the GFS is over Cape Cod where easterly winds are scouring out the cold air; we don't have a strong arctic high to our north to keep the flow backed, so they'd quickly change over to rain being surrounded by SSTs in the 40s. All of the models have trended east...GFS, NAM, UKMET, etc. Not a good sign. Another jump east and you are totally out of the QPF too. The eastern half of SNE sees warning criteria on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.