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December 19th-20 Storm Thread II


Baroclinic Zone

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Yeah...a good hit for ENE...especially SE. People probably thought I was being negative in my posts, but I wasn't. It's a great trend...it's not a weenie run (except for maybe the Cape)

I think even with the NAM verbatim there's precip type issues here especially right on the coast. It's way too early to care much but Bos PVD SE I like the most, could really see Norwood-Randolph etc getting smoked but its days away.

It's a decent hit on the NAM.

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In a best case scenario, this storm has 12/19/2009 written all over it in terms of the distribution of snow for SNE. Late development will minimize impacts over the mid-Atlantic. It is almost comical to watch the model hugging chaos over the past several days. Look at the current system well suppressed over the ocean with the snow shield a good 75-100 miles off the New ENgland/ LI coast. A track over Block Island or Boston is virtually improbable given the blocking present last winter and once again this winter. The pattern remains suppressed and a track anywhere near the Benchmark would be welcomed. I am much more fearful of the SE of the BM solutions than one that comes anywhere near BOS or Block Island. At this point, I-95 to I-195 has a shot at snowfall, but I'd pick Chatham if I had to pick a bullseye.

New NAM clearly agrees with my earlier thoughts. NAM simulated radar composites show a South Coast/ Cape hit with a sharp cutoff in the Hartford to Worcester corridor.

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