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December 19th-20 Storm Thread II


Baroclinic Zone

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Yeah significantly east of 15z run.

Ok, now I'm getting pretty nervous. SREF's pretty much equal the NAM.. I have a feeling that this is a rare occasion where the Euro may have a hiccuped. I mean its one thing for the the NAM to hold serve but to go east is another

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Well they used to be, but they've gotten better in the past year or so. I still would be careful making any conclusions based on the 72+ hour SREF solutions.

But seeing them go well east is certainly not as good as if they had come west a bit.

I'm feeling better about being in my longitude...lol. SREFs actually gives me a decent hit.

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Well they used to be, but they've gotten better in the past year or so. I still would be careful making any conclusions based on the 72+ hour SREF solutions.

But seeing them go well east is certainly not as good as if they had come west a bit.

Wha'ts the cause for the eastward shift? Is it handling the southern stream much differently? Is it not as amplified?

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Ginx, I guess no Wa-Wa-Wachusett Monday? Unless you have a snowmobile.

I took it as a personal day. Might wind up a snow day.

Do you know if the radio show works on an iPod/Ipad?

Yea it works, got yelled at last time for the late night one, which was blah anyway, at least Will is there tonight. I hope tuesday for WAWA

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This model forecasting is so frazzling. One minute...OTS...next, major hit...next maybe too far west...back to OTS worries...I think I'm going to be sick. I feel a whole lot better that the EURO shows the storm and the GFS shows the miss at this timeframe.

If it was the other way around, I wouldn't feel so comfortable about a snowy solution. That said...if the EURO goes down, I'm going down with it. EURO FTW.

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The 21z srefs are flatter, both with the s/w across the south and ridging in the western Atlantic.

Still early, but look how noticeably stronger the southern s/w is on the 00z NAM at 18 hours vs 24 hours on the 18z run...the energy entering the PAC NW is also stronger it looks like to me.

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