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December 19th-20 Storm Thread II


Baroclinic Zone

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Typical Henry Weenie thoughts

19 Minutes Ago - "Here's my update. I think the storm goes off the coast and out to sea, swings around and gives northern New England some snow Monday. I think the Euro was the extreme solution, the NAM and GFS 18z are probably the correct solution. Again, I am not hyping the storm up because of all the issues with the pattern I mentioned earlier this week."

15 Minutes Ago - "This is a northern New England storm next week followed by clipper that hit the same areas hit today with another 1-4 inches of snow."

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interesting discussion in the main forum about the sea temps and strong baroclinity just off the coast that could encourage the development of the storm closer to the coast. Is there a model that is particularly good at taking this into account?

As we get a bit closer some of the mesoscale models might be able to pick up on this a bit more I'd think. Or the models with really good resolutions.

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Aren't they useless beyond 36 hours?

Well they used to be, but they've gotten better in the past year or so. I still would be careful making any conclusions based on the 72+ hour SREF solutions.

But seeing them go well east is certainly not as good as if they had come west a bit.

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