Organizing Low Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Another reason why I call him Crazy Uncle Ukie. how the hell does the Ukie get good scores? i just dont get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 how the hell does the Ukie get good scores? i just dont get it. Well, the mean of it's runs over ND and it's runs over Bermuda is a pretty good forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 There is a visible bulge to the nw in the isobars, though...indicative of some of the members relaxing at the luxurious KU resort. Eh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Eh Well, one or two get me good.......there is bulge nw, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Eh wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Those GEFS members are a bit depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Figured this is probably worth a read.. ...MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST... THE ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS/NAM MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEST THIS CYCLE WITH THE CYCLONE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND. THE SYSTEM REMAINS A TOUGH CHALLENGE DUE TO RUN TO RUN FLUCTUATIONS IN TRACK/INTENSITY AS THERE ARE CONFLICTING SIGNALS CONCERNING SNOWSTORM POTENTIAL RESULTING FROM TIMING AND INTENSITY CHANGES. THE STRONGER MODEL SOLUTIONS AND THOSE WITH A FURTHER WEST TRACK LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF RESULT IN GREATER SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE ECMWF 300 MB JET STRUCTURE AND 700 MB WAVE COMING ON TO THE WEST COAST IN CA LOOK SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR 00Z RUN...I DO NOT SEE PACIFIC SAMPLING OF THE DATA AS THE CAUSE OF THE RUN TO RUN CHANGE. IT APPEARS TO BE MORE TIED TO TYPICAL PHASING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN CONFLUENT FLOW OF TWO JET STREAMS IN THE EAST...AND SUBJECT TO FURTHER CHANGE. LOW RISKS OF FOUR AND EIGHT INCHES ARE SHOWN IN PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC TO LONG ISLAND/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND UNTIL THE MODELS CAN SETTLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE CYCLONE AND RESULTANT ADJUSTMENTS IN WHERE THE SNOW/RAIN TRANSITION ZONE SETS UP AND HOW FAR WEST HEAVY PRECIPITATION EXTENDS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...AS IS TYPICAL FOR A POTENTIAL EAST COAST SNOW EVENT. CONSEQUENTLY...A BLEND OF MODEL/SREF MEAN SOLUTIONS WAS USED FOR THE FORECAST. THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. PETERSEN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Well, the mean of it's runs over ND and it's runs over Bermuda is a pretty good forecast. It must have some difficulty with east coast snowstorms or something...idk. It's skill scores are 2nd...and I found it better than the GFS in Bermuda also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 It must have some difficulty with east coast snowstorms or something...idk. It's skill scores are 2nd...and I found it better than the GFS in Bermuda also. I've seen it score some major coups in snowstorms here, but obviously it has some really exotic runs that are wrong. I believe it was actually the best model in the Feb 10, 2010 bust here...it kept giving us the least QPF while other models (including eventually the Euro) hammered us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I don't see what the big deal is. "The Euro is KING!" why do we always get away from that? Remember last storm when the GFS was east and then it came all the way back to the euro with the low over Central NY? Thats the same thing that will happen here. The Flip flopping of the GFS is absurd right now. One thing is certain though. The Euro tonight is effin huge! The fact that the GFS shows no snow does not bring down my excitement at all. Anywho, Just trying to remember past major noreasters. I feel that the GFS and NAM always go east and then slowly creep back to the west and then trail a little east <24 hours in until they match the euro. Thats how it always works IMO If it was the other way around and the GFS was showing a major hit and euro showing a dud, we would say throw out the GFS and go with the Euro. Why not do that here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Eh Not sure it was the same members but that's exactly what happened today. This is identical to the 6Z GFS ENS......right before it was slammajamma at 12Z. Euro is smart....2 runs a day...nothing more...not needed....the more noise the worse the result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I've seen it score some major coups in snowstorms here, but obviously it has some really exotic runs that are wrong. I believe it was actually the best model in the Feb 10, 2010 bust here...it kept giving us the least QPF while other models (including eventually the Euro) hammered us. How close in did the EURO nail us in that..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I've seen it score some major coups in snowstorms here, but obviously it has some really exotic runs that are wrong. I believe it was actually the best model in the Feb 10, 2010 bust here...it kept giving us the least QPF while other models (including eventually the Euro) hammered us. It caught the northward extend of the precip in the last Dec. 19th snowstorm...it had it about 3-4 days out I believe. The GFS still had the sharp cut off between Philly and NYC at the time and I believe the Euro was similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 How close in did the EURO nail us in that..... About 24h before...it did back off a bit on its final run which should have been a red flag in retrospect...its easy to try and hindcast that storm, but there's reason almost all of us went bullish in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Those GEFS members are a bit depressing. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Please..no more GFS related talk..At least not until 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 About 24h before...it did back off a bit on its final run which should have been a red flag in retrospect...its easy to try and hindcast that storm, but there's reason almost all of us went bullish in that. Can't wait to hear you on the radio show tonight will. I hope you teach us the players at work here and what we need to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 About 24h before...it did back off a bit on its final run which should have been a red flag in retrospect...its easy to try and hindcast that storm, but there's reason almost all of us went bullish in that. Wow, the EURO was off by over a 100 miles with 24 hrs....damn. I remember nothing about all those events.....mainly because I didn't care because I knew they'd miss and blocked the rest out. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Getting a good laugh at the hand-wringing and pearl-clutching after the GFS puked on itself. Anyway, on the drive home I noticed how much happier I was knowing a big storm is on the way. People cutting me off? No problem ... a smile and a wave is all I would offer. Riding my bumper? No sweat, I'll let 'em by. Forgetting to turn down the brights? It's alright, we all make mistakes. Life is good. Remind me not to cut you off if it rains on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Please..no more GFS related talk..At least not until 00z Just EC ens mean talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I don't care if the 0z NAM and GFS come out looking like beetle dung. All I need to know is that the Euro pummels us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Wow, the EURO was off by over a 100 miles with 24 hrs....damn. I remember nothing about all those events.....mainly because I didn't care because I knew they'd miss and blocked the rest out. lol Well the Euro had been south for many runs leading up to it. Then it finally came north for a couple runs and we though it was game on, but then it ticked back south right before it started....its solutions from 48-72h out ended up being more correct than the 24h solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Well the Euro had been south for many runs leading up to it. Then it finally came north for a couple runs and we though it was game on, but then it ticked back south right before it started....its solutions from 48-72h out ended up being more correct than the 24h solutions. If that took place here I'd quit wx. lol Was it's ens mean similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I don't care if the 0z NAM and GFS come out looking like beetle dung. All I need to know is that the Euro pummels us. I'll get a little concerned if both of those models hold serve or even go SE. If they tick NW then its def. game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I don't care if the 0z NAM and GFS come out looking like beetle dung. All I need to know is that the Euro pummels us. This is correct. If they come out as HECS, good for them. They're worth a glance but not much more. Euro all day every day. It's funny how when we're getting screwed people declare it as king and Dr. No, but now when we have two amazing runs inside 100 hours it's oh no the 18z GFS is OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 If that took place here I'd quit wx. lol Was it's ens mean similar What's your snow cutoff for this storm where you'd quit wx lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 This is correct. If they come out as HECS, good for them. They're worth a glance but not much more. Euro all day every day. It's funny how when we're getting screwed people declare it as king and Dr. No, but now when we have two amazing runs inside 100 hours it's oh no the 18z GFS is OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 This is correct. If they come out as HECS, good for them. They're worth a glance but not much more. Euro all day every day. It's funny how when we're getting screwed people declare it as king and Dr. No, but now when we have two amazing runs inside 100 hours it's oh no the 18z GFS is OTS. I mean they have to be worth something? Why do mets even look at them if theyre worth nothing? Why don't they just look at the euro and nothing else? I think if the GFS and NAM hold serve then there will probably be a compromise between the euro and GFS/NAM. Aka more of an ENE event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I'm looking at the GFS as giving the envelope of possibilities ... western-most at 12z, eastern-most at 18z. I believe the Euro will take a step east, though not a large one. We've seen that in the past Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 What's your snow cutoff for this storm where you'd quit wx lol 1'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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