December 19th-20 Storm Thread II

[Organizing Low]

I don't believe the US models really and I don't think I would let the 18Z runs phase you. How many times have we had the Euro accurately call a cutter and the stupid GFS comes in further east and offers hope. Well enough said..... it will come back to the Euro by tomorrow night at 0Z or so.

The Euro is onto this that's all you need to know. I really don't see it shifting east now that we in its wheel horse so to speak.

2 runs in a row for the euro, thats big at this timeframe.

if it happens again tonight, its a virtual lock, if not already.

[Logan11]

It wasn't just the ECM at 12Z, the GGEM also was very impressive. What did the 12Z Ukie show? It may be the US models against the world.

You're a lock to be buried ....nw of BOS there. It doesn't even matter if you dry slotted and went up to 33 at some point because the front end would already have buried you.

[40/70 Benchmark]

You're a lock to be buried ....nw of BOS there. It doesn't even matter if you dry slotted and went up to 33 at some point because the front end would already have buried you.

I have to grab a digital cam and learn how to upload pics.

[CT Rain]

Well the whiff possibility I think is definitely low as it would be a catastrophic failure of the Euro and its ensembles inside of 96 hours...but given how tough this pattern has been on guidance, I can't really rule it out.

I am slightly worries about the Euro not really having locked in on this all along. It was sort of late to the game. The extreme flopping around we've seen on the GFS, for instance, isn't just an indication of a bad model I think it's also an indication of how convoluted the pattern is.

[Sn0waddict]

Man, it's difficult to watch all of this while being in western CT. This is one of those rare storms where i would prefer to be in SE New London County

[DavisStraight]

If I remember correctly on that last big retro grade storm last Feb the GFS didnt have the right solution til the 0Z run less than 48 hrs before the storm, I dont remember what the Euro had on the days leading up to that storm.

[Typhoon Tip]

Eh, yeah - no one should be concerned about 1 errant run of the GFS or NAM, particularly when it is an 18z cycle. Walter Drag (former Met at the KTAN office) once put it best, 'it is essentially another ensemble member'. I haven't heard any research since that refutes that, and have actually heard other Mets discuss that it doesn't even get the full compliment of data at ingest - basically takes the 12z forecasts for the points where there would otherwise be holes in the 18z. input grids. That should work most of the time, but won't all the time.

The 18z has its uses though. I have seen rare times in the past where it was a cycle that first ferreted out an potential - this just doesn't "air" that way in my mind with such overwhelming indications this time..

[MaineJayhawk]

Getting a good laugh at the hand-wringing and pearl-clutching after the GFS puked on itself.

Anyway, on the drive home I noticed how much happier I was knowing a big storm is on the way. People cutting me off? No problem ... a smile and a wave is all I would offer. Riding my bumper? No sweat, I'll let 'em by. Forgetting to turn down the brights? It's alright, we all make mistakes.

Life is good.

[40/70 Benchmark]

It wasn't just the ECM at 12Z, the GGEM also was very impressive. What did the 12Z Ukie show? It may be the US models against the world.

Uk was a hit, but it acheived the desired outcome by a different and rather unconventional means in the it appeared to miss, but retrograded back and got ene.

[MaineJayhawk]

So Will is wrong?

I like Harvey's 75% big hit kinda deal for Boston. I think it's about 50/50 in CT.

Enjoy your cirrus, sucka!

[Damage In Tolland]

So Will is wrong?

I like Harvey's 75% big hit kinda deal for Boston. I think it's about 50/50 in CT.

See his post above. He says very low to remote. As a met you can't totally rule anything out..but it's about a 90% lock currently for all of SNE

[dendrite]

I'm curious about something. I often hear that the 6Z and 18Z runs are not as accurate as the 0Z and 12Z runs. Do they keep statistics that the off hour runs are less accurate or is this just gut feeling stuff?

There's no difference really in H5 hgt scores at d5 for the runs.

However, it does seem like 6z/18z does some funky things at times.

[weathafella]

Uk was a hit, but it acheived the desired outcome by a different and rather unconventional means in the it appeared to miss, but retrograded back and got ene.

Another reason why I call him Crazy Uncle Ukie.

[Kbosch]

I have to grab a digital cam and learn how to upload pics.

You sure do - no better time than this storm.

We got the Euro on board for 2 runs under 100 hours. Let's just enjoy that.

[ORH_wxman]

Uk was a hit, but it acheived the desired outcome by a different and rather unconventional means in the it appeared to miss, but retrograded back and got ene.

There's a shocker from the Ukie.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Eh, yeah - no one should be concerned about 1 errant run of the GFS or NAM, particularly when it is an 18z cycle. Walter Drag (former Met at the KTAN office) once put it best, 'it is essentially another ensemble member'. I haven't heard any research since that refutes that, and have actually heard other Mets discuss that it doesn't even get the full compliment of data at ingest - basically takes the 12z forecasts for the points where there would otherwise be holes in the 18z. input grids. That should work most of the time, but won't all the time.

The 18z has its uses though. I have seen rare times in the past where it was a cycle that first ferreted out an potential - this just doesn't "air" that way in my mind with such overwhelming indications this time..

That is what I say about the NAM.

[CT Rain]

See his post above. He says very low to remote. As a met you can't totally rule anything out..but it's about a 90% lock currently for all of SNE

lol he didn't say "remote" he said it was a possibility but odds favor a big hit. I totally agree with that sentiment but don't be devastated if this thing ticks east for the next couple runs.

[CoastalWx]

See his post above. He says very low to remote. As a met you can't totally rule anything out..but it's about a 90% lock currently for all of SNE

LOL, I love how you inserted "remote".

[Damage In Tolland]

I am slightly worries about the Euro not really having locked in on this all along. It was sort of late to the game. The extreme flopping around we've seen on the GFS, for instance, isn't just an indication of a bad model I think it's also an indication of how convoluted the pattern is.

Therein lies the probelm once again..the GFS has created confusion on your part.

What if the GFS had been a huge hit at 18z?

[CT Rain]

LOL, I love how you inserted "remote".

That's just like 0.1" of QPF becomes "1-3 inches easy"

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Fact is we're looking at our first real threat inside of 96 hours and for this season in this pattern we have no track record of models so everything is still possible.

Should be a fun night tonight. See you all after hours of miserable christmas shopping

[CT Rain]

Therein lies the probelm once again..the GFS has created confusion on your part.

What if the GFS had been a huge hit at 18z?

I would have liked that more, obviously, but I'm not all that concerned about that. This system most certainly hasn't produced consistent modeling on any model.

[CT Rain]

Fact is we're looking at our first real threat inside of 96 hours and for this season in this pattern we have no track record of models so everything is still possible.

Should be a fun night tonight. See you all after hours of miserable christmas shopping

I'm going to run to dunkin donuts around 9 to get some coffee to stay up for the Euro tonight lol

[TalcottWx]

LOVE the lack of confidence that people now have after the nam or gfs at 18z. Best op and ensembles ecmwf's ive seen and people's confidence is low.

[Damage In Tolland]

I would have liked that more, obviously, but I'm not all that concerned about that. This system most certainly hasn't produced consistent modeling on any model.

Until the Euro locked it in the last 2 runs and everything else caved on the most meaningful 12z models. We wouldn't even be having this convo if the GFS had stayed west at 18z

[BRSno]

GEFS is OTS too

[shadow]

at least it will be coldif a storm come up the coast just keep are fingers x

[40/70 Benchmark]

at least it will be coldif a storm come up the coast just keep are fingers x

[CoastalWx]

Weeklies are in. They still have a -nao week three, but shift it more to an east based block week 4. Week three has a big cold signal in the Plains, with perhaps some warmer temps here based on the 850 look, but week four looks normal. They still have the npac ridge into the Bering Sea.

[40/70 Benchmark]

[quote name=((((d-_-)))' timestamp='1292541975' post='121390]

GEFS is OTS too

There is a visible bulge to the nw in the isobars, though...indicative of some of the members relaxing at the luxurious KU resort.