December 19th-20 Storm Thread II

[ORH_wxman]

Probably the most important development of the day is that the JMA is on board for a huge storm

[Hazey]

Damn if the 18z were to come to fruition, that would be a pretty long duration precip event here. Snow or rain? not sure. probably snow to rain if i were to guess.

[weatherMA]

5pm news casts were calling for about as much snow as you could for a storm 3 days out. Most said there is a great chance we get impacted significantly. Two stations even threw out the 12+ amounts if the "full potential" of the storm is reached. I except to hear people expecting a 1 to 2 foot storm tommorow at school .

At this point I'll be pretty disapointed if I don't get warning critea, but of course theres still a chance I won't. Im cautiously optomistic for 12+ and my best storm in a few years, but of course I'll take any snow at this point with my .2" total on December 16th.

[CoastalWx]

Well that's it then..lol.

[nzucker]

5H is much less amplified so the storm doesn't respond until the upper levels go nuts...so that's why it looks weaker initially, because the upper level support is weaker.

Yeah this makes sense, Will. It doesn't get the necessary injection of northern stream energy as much, so I guess the mid and upper levels are weakened and thus the storm doesn't mature a CCB well.

GFS has flip flopped on every single run in a major way for days now. Every 6 hours is a dramatically different solution. ECM ensembles which include 51 members vs the GFS 12 (I think). Yet every 6 hours we had a dramatically different run (maybe except for 12/18 yesterday). GFS is unbelievable.

All the models have been flip-flopping. ECM went from showing no storm for 5 runs in a row, to a New England hit, to a HECS. We'll see where it goes at 0z but this is just a complicated timing issue that none of the models can really handle.

[RobBensalemSnow]

I love the JMA Model, a blizzard a week model :-)

[Damage In Tolland]

LOL at the bridge jumpers. GFS does this EVERY single big snowstorm. it's why it's garabage. DOn't put any stock in it until 12z tomorrow..even then it won't be that accurate.

If the Euro has it now..lock that b**ch up

[DomNH]

BTW, dusting of snow on car/grill this morning, so I guess technically the dusting-less streak is over .

[CT Rain]

LOL at the bridge jumpers. GFS does this EVERY single big snowstorm. it's why it's garabage. DOn't put any stock in it until 12z tomorrow..even then it won't be that accurate.

If the Euro has it now..lock that b**ch up

I've decided that I'll be disappointed with anything less than 15"

[DomNH]

LOL at the bridge jumpers. GFS does this EVERY single big snowstorm. it's why it's garabage. DOn't put any stock in it until 12z tomorrow..even then it won't be that accurate.

If the Euro has it now..lock that b**ch up

But Reverend, the NAM was east too.

[Ginx snewx]

I don't think this is really the type of storm that does that; it's more of a Miller A threat where the whole coastline will get hammered if the southern stream is sharp enough as the 12z ECM showed, and to some extent earlier runs of the GFS. I could see why you're thinking this because of the potential for a late capture/retrograde at 5H, but I think if the southern shortwave comes in flat, the system is already going to develop too far offshore to hit anyone seriously. I basically see this as an all or nothing situation with the only middle ground being a light grazing for the Cape/SE Mass.

The 18z GFS also looks weaker with the CCB; the 12z GFS seemed to develop a much more coherent CCB with heavy precipitation, and its development occurred faster. The storm seems much more disorganized on both the 18z NAM and 18z GFS. Do you have any idea why, Will?

I posted all the 12Z maps in Phils grade the storm thread, hard to believe someone like you who can give the Nina state to the hundreth of a degree did not know what the UK showed. No absolutes in model land, the model fluctuations are just that. Stabilization should occur tomorrow.Off run slight fluctuations mean NADA.

[Kbosch]

LOL at the bridge jumpers. GFS does this EVERY single big snowstorm. it's why it's garabage. DOn't put any stock in it until 12z tomorrow..even then it won't be that accurate.

If the Euro has it now..lock that b**ch up

I thought you would say garbage in garbage out, but that works. I don't think we need to concern ourselves with it at all. It's Euro time.

And JMA time, but that never ends.

[40/70 Benchmark]

This has got to be killing Ray ... an advertised KU under 100 hours and the poor sob can't even get login and weenie out with all of us. Yet another way that 2010 is putting his balls into a vise.

.....+ the big model improvement came RIGHT after I was locked out, then as I got back on it went to sh** again.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I'm like the Dr. Kervorkian of snowstorms...I show up all models but the JMA go out to sea.

[NorEastermass128]

Just invested 25 bucks in a new shovel...this storm better make it here!

[40/70 Benchmark]

LOL at the bridge jumpers. GFS does this EVERY single big snowstorm. it's why it's garabage. DOn't put any stock in it until 12z tomorrow..even then it won't be that accurate.

If the Euro has it now..lock that b**ch up

This.

[Kbosch]

I've decided that I'll be disappointed with anything less than 15"

That's ridiculous - at least 18" for you, 21" for Mt. Tolland, 15" would be for me.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

For those having DNS issues, the Level 3's are fine..change your DNS servers to 4.2.2.2 and 4.2.2.3 or if on Comcast use the non DNS helper addresses.

[NorEastermass128]

.....+ the big model improvement came RIGHT after I was locked out, then as I got back on it went to sh** again.

Get off then! Get off! Will, ban him please.

[DomNH]

15z SREF looks pretty good at H5 to me:

[Damage In Tolland]

But Reverend, the NAM was east too.

Haven't you guys learned anything over the years? When a big snow event is close..the American models lose it about 3-4 days out...then as we get within about 2 days and less they latch back onto it..The Euro has it and won;t lose it.

I don't understand why people do this when the NAM and GFS suddenly lose a storm.

[DomNH]

Haven't you guys learned anything over the years? When a big snow event is close..the American models lose it about 3-4 days out...then as we get within about 2 days and less they latch back onto it..The Euro has it and won;t lose it.

I don't understand why people do this when the NAM and GFS suddenly lose a storm.

I was kidding for Christ sake lol, I've been here long enough to know this.

[weathafella]

All the models have been flip-flopping. ECM went from showing no storm for 5 runs in a row, to a New England hit, to a HECS. We'll see where it goes at 0z but this is just a complicated timing issue that none of the models can really handle.

Do not agree. Euro picked it up around d8-9...last weekend. Then lost it for 2-3 days and the GFS followed it. Then it came in hard last night as an outlier and guess who joined the party at 12Z. I can recall 3-4 days out this exact same thing happening in every major event that has clocked us here. Unless the Euro loses this, ride it. It almost NEVER is bringing you a storm you don't get. More often the other way.

[Damage In Tolland]

You can predict exactly what the US models will do like clockwork in all of the KU's. I can think of like 4-5 KU's where this exact thing happened. The Nam will bring it back 1st then the GFS will be last...you can set your watches to it

[dendrite]

GFS has flip flopped on every single run in a major way for days now. Every 6 hours is a dramatically different solution. ECM ensembles which include 51 members vs the GFS 12 (I think). Yet every 6 hours we had a dramatically different run (maybe except for 12/18 yesterday). GFS is unbelievable.

The GFS has 20. The EC has 50.

A little comparison of the EC ENS and GEFS...

EC ENS: T399 (~45km) from 0-240hr and 62 vertical levels

GEFS: T190 (~85km) and 28.

Op runs

EC: T1279 (~14km) and 91

GFS: T574 (~28km) and 64

[mattb65]

The 18z GFS did weird things with the initial development of the low pressure off the coast placing it in various little blobs of convection at hr 66 and 72 ... Still thinking something like the 0Z ECMF will end up being the final solution(hopefully )

[CoastalWx]

While we obviously don't know the outcome...I will say this:

The euro may have had the wrong solution for a while, but you have to admire how consistent it is. The GFS is the king of waffles....I mean east-west-east-west..it's everywhere..lol. At least the euro may have been consistently wrong, but perhaps locks into the right idea and stays that way. So yes, maybe the GFS has the right idea, but it's so dam inconsistent sometimes. We'll know in 72 hrs.

[DomNH]

The GFS has 20. The EC has 50.

A little comparison of the EC ENS and GEFS...

EC ENS: T399 (~45km) from 0-240hr and 62 vertical levels

GEFS: T190 (~85km) and 28.

Op runs

EC: T1279 (~14km) and 91

GFS: T574 (~28km) and 64

Wow...I didn't know the resolution difference was that drastic.

[CT Rain]

For those having DNS issues, the Level 3's are fine..change your DNS servers to 4.2.2.2 and 4.2.2.3 or if on Comcast use the non DNS helper addresses.

Yeah I have comcast and couldn't get on. Changed my DNS to 8.8.8.8 and it's working great

[Organizing Low]

You can predict exactly what the US models will do like clockwork in all of the KU's. I can think of like 4-5 KU's where this exact thing happened. The Nam will bring it back 1st then the GFS will be last...you can set your watches to it

you're right.