Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Time to start a new thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 cause it's gon snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mad River Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Time to start a new thread. Is there a 100 page limit? It's great to see everyone on board and excited! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 20+ for most of CT and Central mass on north on the Euro..WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I'm satisfied with the 12z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I feel the westward movement has me on the North Shore (Danvers, MA) dealing with mixing issues.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Is there a 100 page limit? It's great to see everyone on board and excited! Usually, sometimes threads can get out of hand an go way beyond 100+ though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 Is there a 100 page limit? It's great to see everyone on board and excited! 2000 posts is a lot for one thread. It taxes the server. To everyone Let's try to keep the banter to a minimum and stick to models/storm discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Wow, I expected a west shift in the models, but in all of them going to the highly amplfiied occluding pattern. Amazing. Phil and I on the Cape and Islands will likely be dealing with some type of mixing issues if the foreign models are correct. I believe confidence in the three day forecast is quite high, just the details are quite tough to pin point like the track/intensity/precip type and amounts. Should be another 36 hours before we can be confident about precip issues and amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 You guys realize we're on the verge of a KU..Ray's Xmas wish about to come true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I'm pretty confident of warning criteria. Not a bad feeling 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I feel the westward movement has me on the North Shore (Danvers, MA) dealing with mixing issues.... Danvers should be ok but BVY to BOS should mix on the Euro. But a ton of snow verbatim before and after the taint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 2000 posts is a lot for one thread. It taxes the server. To everyone Let's try to keep the banter to a minimum and stick to models/storm discussion. That's going to be tough to do following what we just saw in the GFS/EC combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Looks like models agree on precip issues for the Cape, this can't be good. I mean we went from an out to sea solution to a possible rain issued storm within two operational runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 exicting thread wheres Tip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I'm satisfied with the 12z gfs And the Euro is like 1" QPF more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 If that breaks that way we get 3.5 straight days of snow - So, tell me how data assimilation over the Pacific isn’t problematic, and how incorporating that into one's forecast philosophy is a fallacy again - please. These jet dynamics are coming aboard 00z and 12z and boom. Yet again, system morphologies when the ingest samples the deep layer directly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 What is the arrival/departure time frame on the EC? I can't really tell from the freebies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 exicting thread wheres Tip About to post something long and hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 20+ for most of CT and Central mass on north on the Euro..WOW Let's hope it holds, would like to see one of those bands set up along I84 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 20 min til the Nam.. this will be a huge c*** tease as it only goes to 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I see "storm mode" status now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I may take a nap for a while then get up and start reading Kocin's book. I really like where we are now. Obvious mixing issues if the Euro is right inside the 495 corridor in Mass but I like that the GGEM/GFS are still a bit east. Euro could conceivably tick east a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 About to stroke something long and hard. Yours or his? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Stays damned cold out through D10 on ECMWF. Wonder if snow cover is figured in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 You guys realize we're on the verge of a KU..Ray's Xmas wish about to come true Someone come up with lyrics for "Ray's Dreaming of a KU Christmas", and Jayhawk can get it on a shirt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Canadian ensembles about 100nm east of BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I may take a nap for a while then get up and start reading Kocin's book. I really like where we are now. Obvious mixing issues if the Euro is right inside the 495 corridor in Mass but I like that the GGEM/GFS are still a bit east. Euro could conceivably tick east a bit. Gibbs has his out now. Says 66 storm is comparable... was weak nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 12z GEFS means look good as well. Confidence continues to increase in a potential winter storm. I will like to see the consistency we are starting to see in the EURO with the GFS/CMC/UKMET before confidence becomes quite high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Gibbs has his out now. Says 66 storm is comparable... was weak nina 66 blew for eastern areas. Hope he's wrong. I was in upstate NY though and it was a burier. I think DC/BWI did very well but NYC/BOS had plenty of mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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