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Rain or Snow? Storm or no storm? January 9th/10th


UW-weather

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So i think it time to start talking about the storm that has been consistent in many models for next week. Earlier it looked like the warm air was going to win out, but models are trending colder (except the euro)... we all know how well the euro does, but remember last blizzard, the euro took its time in conforming on the track shown by other major models. 

 

And how about that track?! Dipping all the way into Mexico, could be a massive storm if it all comes together! Been awhile since we have seen a winter track like that.

 

let the discussion begin...

 

gfs_namer_132_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

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Has a look and track of the Dec 20-22 storm. This was the feature which really changed the weather pattern the last time.

 

DTW is going to have lots of rain then slotted for a cold front and a skiff of snow.

 

WAYYYYYY too early to declare something like that.

 

See the 12z GFS for example.

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It's amazing how much the Euro is slowing this thing down each run.  Huge change from last night's 00z to today's 12z and now equally huge change on the new 00z.  If the new run is correct it's pretty much no storm at all.  It just crawls eastward well to the south of the region.

 

I know. I was just looking over that. Drifts towards SC or there about at 162hr. There literally a 1000 mile wide cone of uncertainty where this system goes after Texas!

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