Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Classic cold air lag scenario, brings at least one day's realization on the original signal. WNW down slope flow with 850's not yet processed behind cold boundary often does this in this part of the country. In fact, some of our hottest weather in the summer (just as an example) happens when the DPs evacuate seaward and cfropa occurs around 11am while 850s linger at 20C. Temp shoots to 96 on the coastal plain BEHIND the cold front. Next day is in the upper 70s with azure skies. The change between today and tomorrow will be on the order of 20 to 25F, by this time tomorrow afternoon - impressive. Might be 38-40 in places that are 60-63 now. All and all, it was a warmer than normal period, where excluding the one day of obscene (today) was less than what appeared more plausible some 7 to 10 days back. Given the pantheon of indicators and modeling trends et al, I see no problem correcting the January monthly means substantially downward going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 Classic cold air lag scenario, brings at least one day's realization on the original signal. WNW down slope flow with 850's not yet processed behind cold boundary often does this in this part of the country. In fact, some of our hottest weather in the summer (just as an example) happens when the DPs evacuate seaward and cfropa occurs around 11am while 850s linger at 20C. Temp shoots to 96 on the coastal plain BEHIND the cold front. Next day is in the upper 70s with azure skies. The change between today and tomorrow will be on the order of 20 to 25F, by this time tomorrow afternoon - impressive. Might be 38-40 in places that are 60-63 now. All and all, it was a warmer than normal period, where excluding the one day of obscene (today) was less than what appeared more plausible some 7 to 10 days back. Given the pantheon of indicators and modeling trends et al, I see no problem correcting the January monthly means substantially downward going forward. Interesting take, I will add up the numbers later tonight, after a cold start to the month this 11-15 day stretch of above normal weather will leave monthly departures +5-+8 for the big 4. Tomorrow and Wed are above normal and this weekend looks above as well, not crazy just above, then the hammer drops later Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Temps crashing inland now. Mitch is down to 39 in the Berks. It's over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 ,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 Even with temps cooling tonight,we should see impressive departures today, for instance forecast low at bos is 32 thats +10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Interesting take, I will add up the numbers later tonight, after a cold start to the month this 11-15 day stretch of above normal weather will leave monthly departures +5-+8 for the big 4. Tomorrow and Wed are above normal and this weekend looks above as well, not crazy just above, then the hammer drops later Sunday. Heh, specifically ...it's the endless string of 55-61 highs that failed. Without that weak disturbance that inserted cloud and precip Fri-Sunday, that would certainly have been more successful. Once that saturated this air mass over an interior snow pack, that doomed the heftier hot temp invasion. And, having 2.5 days at 40/40 kind of cheats if one uses that to tabulate +8s. It's clear that the original "panache" of what the interval was supposed to bring, failed - there's just no question. Hey, above normal is above normal though - no one should deny that. But, we got the one day, today, out of the deal - I love it out there. It gives you energy to just stand there and look around as an appreciator - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Made it to 55 here. 51 and falling now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Even though I lost about 90% of my snow pack due to the fog, I think the torch was a bit of a fail here overall. It never hit 50° F once and the highest temperature in the past 72 hours was 46° F this morning after the front came through and we mixed out. We also hit 46° F briefly yesterday when a brief bout of southerly wind took over. 39° F here now with some CAA and upslope cooling. I'm amazed at how warm the rest of SNE is today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 Heh, specifically ...it's the endless string of 55-61 highs that failed. Without that weak disturbance that inserted cloud and precip Fri-Sunday, that would certainly have been more successful. Once that saturated this air mass over an interior snow pack, that doomed the heftier hot temp invasion. And, having 2.5 days at 40/40 kind of cheats if one uses that to tabulate +8s. It's clear that the original "panache" of what the interval was supposed to bring, failed - there's just no question. Hey, above normal is above normal though - no one should deny that. But, we got the one day, today, out of the deal - I love it out there. It gives you energy to just stand there and look around as an appreciator - I never really expected more than a day or two of the insane highs and said so in the initial opening post of this thread, the Euro has been a bit crazy on both ends of the spectrum both cold and warm, but I think this went as forecast by most of the mets in this forum and I think they would agree as a few already have. I think the warmest part was delayed a day or two, but the numbers are staggering Tippy. Whether its warm at night or during the day, the fact was during one of the coldest parts of the winter we will end up having 15 or so days in a row of above normal temps, 4 or 5 double digit and I think this will make 13 days with double digit departures at ORH compared to one Negative double digit day since DEC 1. Only a handful of negative days, and most of them besides the one cold day I think the second? were very meh. The bar and standard for a torch keeps getting raised, and what makes this special is this is against the new 30 year averages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Heh, specifically ...it's the endless string of 55-61 highs that failed. Without that weak disturbance that inserted cloud and precip Fri-Sunday, that would certainly have been more successful. Once that saturated this air mass over an interior snow pack, that doomed the heftier hot temp invasion. And, having 2.5 days at 40/40 kind of cheats if one uses that to tabulate +8s. It's clear that the original "panache" of what the interval was supposed to bring, failed - there's just no question. Hey, above normal is above normal though - no one should deny that. But, we got the one day, today, out of the deal - I love it out there. It gives you energy to just stand there and look around as an appreciator - While out there looking around , did you disrobe and let fingers do walking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 So here is the heart of the torch at orh, the 5 days before this were above normal but run of the mill. Last 5 days before today at orh +11 +13 +8 +14 +19 and today.....?? perhaps +20-+25 ? I mean if thats not a torch I am not really sure what is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Other than in some remote boonie valley, this is a record airmass in spots. NNE fried today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 Other than in some remote boonie valley, this is a record airmass in spots. NNE fried today. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 I mean this is mid jan what are people expecting 4 days of 70-75? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I never really expected more than a day or two of the insane highs and said so in the initial opening post of this thread, the Euro has been a bit crazy on both ends of the spectrum both cold and warm, but I think this went as forecast by most of the mets in this forum and I think they would agree as a few already have. I think the warmest part was delayed a day or two, but the numbers are staggering Tippy. Whether its warm at night or during the day, the fact was during one of the coldest parts of the winter we will end up having 15 or so days in a row of above normal temps, 4 or 5 double digit and I think this will make 13 days with double digit departures at ORH compared to one Negative double digit day since DEC 1. Only a handful of negative days, and most of them besides the one cold day I think the second? were very meh. The bar and standard for a torch keeps getting raised, and what makes this special is this is against the new 30 year averages. The torches in Jan 2008, 2007, and 2005 were actually more impressive than this. Nevermind 2002's onslaught of 11 days to end the month. 2005 gets forgotten a lot because the month flipped so drastically...but we had 14 consecutive days above normal to start the month with 6 of them double digit departures and 4 of them +15 or better. I don't really have to speak for 2007 and 2008...those set record highs. 2013 will go down as a pretty typical torch in January...maybe a couple extra points for longevity. At least around here. Didn't check the numbers south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 The torches in Jan 2008, 2007, and 2005 were actually more impressive than this. Nevermind 2002's onslaught of 11 days to end the month. 2005 gets forgotten a lot because the month flipped so drastically...but we had 14 consecutive days above normal to start the month with 6 of them double digit departures and 4 of them +15 or better. I don't really have to speak for 2007 and 2008...those set record highs. 2013 will go down as a pretty typical torch in January...maybe a couple extra points for longevity. At least around here. Didn't check the numbers south. Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Gonna be wild when the big 4 all come in below normal for Jan, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Gonna be wild when the big 4 all come in below normal for Jan, January 2005 please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Gonna be wild when the big 4 all come in below normal for Jan, Lol...don't think so. The flip happens a bit too late for that to have a good chance. The positive departures will be massively dented though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 We hit those highs very, very briefly. Diving back now toward 57 soon as we got any wind about 45 minutes ago it started to cool. Still a couple of tiny snow piles left. The ice is all gone, the ground is soft like May. Birds chirping. Dirty torch in eastern areas LL. I know the departures were huge but sadly this is run of the mill I guess post 2005 or so where +7 days are like +1 in the 70s and 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Help Me, I'm MELTING!!!! so sad, that's all that's left of the snow around here...ground is completely thawed and there is new green grass in the backyard...too bad this is January and not April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Crashing temps...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 Gonna be wild when the big 4 all come in below normal for Jan, Your -2 for Bos might be in trouble:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 tim kelly (NECN) was in dorchesta today http://twitter.com/SurfSkiWxMan/status/290903513205182464/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 These will tick down a few but lol just wow bos+27 bdl+25 pvd+27 orh+25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 Ouch. +5s are bearable (just so) +10 is devastating +27:) should come down a few though man, but just wow, looking back 11 days ago, the guesses on page one were not even close.........thankfully some bitter cold is on the way next week Dave. Julie's school had 15 out and 5 leave, its a special needs school, only 100 students, everyone is sick down here and its nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Crashed to 37 currently . Stiff NW wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 Crashed to 37 currently . Stiff NW wind Impressive for 1/14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Still 2-3" of snow in the yard. Prob 95-99% covered, but by the sides of Rte 2 snow is mostly gone. Picked up the new car. 35F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Impressive for 1/14 Those pos departures are way more than I thought. +27 is Morchlike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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