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2013 Global Sea Level Thread


The_Global_Warmer

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So far today...all is well...

http://www.miamiandbeaches.com/see-miami/

 

Somewhat counter-intuitively, the lowest elevations on Miami Beach are along the western side / Biscayne Bay.  The areas along the Atlantic coast, which is the most touristy area, are actually several feet higher than the bay.  It will probably be a while before they're under any serious threat (other than the occasional hurricane of course!)

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Somewhat counter-intuitively, the lowest elevations on Miami Beach are along the western side / Biscayne Bay.  The areas along the Atlantic coast, which is the most touristy area, are actually several feet higher than the bay.  It will probably be a while before they're under any serious threat (other than the occasional hurricane of course!)

 

I have lived in eastern NC my entire life ( 41 yrs) and spent a bunch of that time on the water, especially the IBX ( inner banks) like the Pamilico Sound and the Tar/Pamlico river system and more or less the water levels and shorelines are pretty much the same as they were when I was a kid. They do change due to hurricanes and wind tides etc but there are places in the marshes that I duck hunt in that I stand in the exact same places I did 30 yrs ago. 

 

It would be difficult to tell much difference if the sea level did suddenly rise 3-6" as wind tides can greatly change the water level in short periods of time on the sound, and the range of the water level due to these are several feet on top of normal tidal changes so a change of just 3-6" in sea level would be hard to detect overall IMO at least in this area. 

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The rate of sea level rise in Miami has been around 9 inches per 100 years. That could increase, but at this point, while the city will continue to be increasingly vulnerable to flooding, there is plenty of time to figure out an exit strategy.

 

Just sucks for those owning Miami real estate. Now is the time to sell.

 

At that rate, I'll be long dead before sea level rise is an issue in south Florida.

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At that rate, I'll be long dead before sea level rise is an issue in south Florida.

 

Adding 9" to a storm surge can be significant, as we saw in Sandy. A lot of infrastructure is designed to withstand 1 in 20, 1 in 50, or 1 in 100 year surges. Adding just a foot to the surge can significantly increase the amount of infrastructure effected. There's a significant difference between a 6 foot and a 5 foot surge.

 

It is projected to accelerate slightly over the next century. 

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  • 9 months later...

Global sea level rise has stayed within the boundaries of the trend line.  We are probably about to see another jump upwards with OHC starting to increase + the lil nino + global ssta sitting so warm recently coinciding with the NH land ice melt season.  We can see on the last data update large increases again showing up. 

 

This graphic was last updated on May 25th with data only thru 2/3rds of February.  Before the OHC explosion along the equator in the Pacific.  Before the global ssta rise and only partially thru the last OHC update that only partially sampled the OHC rise as well.

 

Meaning we may see a break from the trend-line we haven't seen the last two decades.  Or we may not.  But it's set up pretty damn well for it.

 

 

The second graph shows that we haven't entered into the season rise in sea level during the Northern Hemisphere Summer/Fall either.  Throw in NH land ice loss and it could be a fun Summer/Fall to track the sea levels.

 

Stay tuned.

 

 

 

sl_ns_global.png

 

 

sl_global.png

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