Hoosier Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 With the potential El Nino flaming out, it appears we may have warm neutral or cold neutral conditions for the March-May period with cold neutral a favorite right now. Here are the composites for warm neutral years and cold neutral years since 1950 (using 1981-2010 ONI climo). This is merely based on a snapshot of MAM values in region 3.4 and nothing more, so keep that in mind. warm neutral: cold neutral: Although the drought is forecast to improve around the edges, it appears it will be a player in the coming months. There are few examples since 1950 of a drought as widespread/severe as what we may have as we head into Spring. Exactly how much of a role this may play is a bit unclear, but one would think it could lead to hotter airmasses/enhanced EMLs advecting in from the Plains. Here is an early look at the CFSv2 for March-April-May, which will no doubt change many times: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 I'm sure the EML will (if it does play out that way) help with severe setups, especially earlier on through April and May when the cap wouldn't be overly inhibiting and especially if we can get some cold upper troughs involved (Pacific Jet oriented). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2013 Author Share Posted January 3, 2013 Huge area with enhanced probs of above average temps on this outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 Precip looks adequate for FMA and MAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 I hope and pray the miss valley gets some desperately needed soaking rains. Can't even imagine what a continued drought through the spring and summer would mean to the midsection of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 Cant grasp how fast time flys. In less than 2 months MET spring arrives and another warm season starts. Will be interesting to see how this march works out in regards to persistent wintery weather or a sudden switch to spring like 2010 and a less amped 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2013 Author Share Posted January 3, 2013 I hope and pray the miss valley gets some desperately needed soaking rains. Can't even imagine what a continued drought through the spring and summer would mean to the midsection of the country. I remember reading that the 2012 drought may be a $100 billion disaster just to this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 I'm not sure people realize just how much rain is really needed over the drought areas. I can personally say I've never seen the big Muddy this low. I know it was similar in 1989 and 1964, but if we don't get some decent runoff into the Mississippi this spring, it will really hurt shipping and agriculture this year. We're barely above the minimum level for barge transport between STL and Cairo, IL right now. Can't imagine what another summer drought would do. I'm personally considering holding off on re-planting my caneberry crop this year if there isn't enough rain in the next 3 months. Last year was a disaster. Sad to think I might have to move to a full irrigation system to put a stop to this crap. Speaking of which, those MAM maps would be (essentially) a replay of last year. Anything less than well above normal precip or cool/above normal precip could easily serve up another expanding drought-induced monster heat ridge starting in late Spring. The only saving grace in that scenario for areas along and east of the MS river is if the mean ridge sets up far enough west to put us in some consistent NW flow and direct the MCS train down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 What I am hoping is that the green spot shows up in the MAM maps in later extended outlooks, considering confidence isn't at the threshold yet needed for the above average probs yet, it's certainly better than seeing a brown spot though, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 I wouldn't mind a repeat of last spring, except make April a tad warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 I'm not sure people realize just how much rain is really needed over the drought areas. I can personally say I've never seen the big Muddy this low. I know it was similar in 1989 and 1964, but if we don't get some decent runoff into the Mississippi this spring, it will really hurt shipping and agriculture this year. We're barely above the minimum level for barge transport between STL and Cairo, IL right now. Can't imagine what another summer drought would do. I'm personally considering holding off on re-planting my caneberry crop this year if there isn't enough rain in the next 3 months. Last year was a disaster. Sad to think I might have to move to a full irrigation system to put a stop to this crap. Speaking of which, those MAM maps would be (essentially) a replay of last year. Anything less than well above normal precip or cool/above normal precip could easily serve up another expanding drought-induced monster heat ridge starting in late Spring. The only saving grace in that scenario for areas along and east of the MS river is if the mean ridge sets up far enough west to put us in some consistent NW flow and direct the MCS train down here. The latest official reading in the QC is 3.68ft, which is extremely low. Flood stage is 15ft. They've been out dredging the channels trying to keep the barge traffic flowing as best they can. Hopefully we'll get some decent runoff later this spring when the snow melt up north begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 As long as May 9th-May 19th is active I'll be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 I wouldn't mind a repeat of last spring, except make April a tad warmer Yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Really warm springs might be "nice to the touch" but are a disaster for hydrology. Streams and water tables certainly don't take well to the abuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 As long as May 9th-May 19th is active I'll be happy. Hopefully the weekend of the 19th is a very active one because I will be out on the 17th through the 26th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 I wouldn't mind a repeat of last spring, except make April a tad warmer Agreed. Heck, I can live with a repeat of Spring 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Agreed. Heck, I can live with a repeat of Spring 2010. Ya. That was a great spring and followed by a decent severe weather season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 One enthusiast's thoughts on severe weather this spring... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 One enthusiast's thoughts on severe weather this spring... Is that poster any good or just some random weenie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Is that poster any good or just some random weenie? Or option 3, someone from Central IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Is that poster any good or just some random weenie? I think better than average however I usually just pop in over there and am not that familiar with each one all that well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Or option 3, someone from Central IN. No, they were not an Indiana poster. They were an Illinois poster though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 No, they were not an Indiana poster. They were an Illinois poster though... Close enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 That outlook isn't that bad, to be honest. Although I think East TX has a greater shot of being normal/above than below, and I think more of MO/IA should be included in the higher risk zones. Perhaps with a more east-west oriented higher risk zone rather than north-south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 A repost of my thoughts on another forum: Another interest I have with the Plains drought, is not only an eastward of the seasonal Plains dryline, but also in an effective dryline (not just a cold front) making it much farther east due to an influx of dry air on the back side of the sfc cyclone, as in into the MS Valley region. This type of setup has traditionally lead to major outbreaks through the MS Valley and eastward, with the 1965 Palm Sunday outbreak, a certain one a couple of years ago (shown in the MCD below), and the 1974 Super Outbreak among them. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0629 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF MS/AL INTO SOUTHERN TN AND NORTHWEST GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 232...235... VALID 271956Z - 272200Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 232...235...CONTINUES. PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION /PDS/ TORNADO WATCHES 232/235 CONTINUE UNTIL 00Z/03Z RESPECTIVELY. THIS INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACK STRONG/PERHAPS VIOLENT TORNADOES INTO THIS EVENING AS A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ONLY INCREASES IN MAGNITUDE/RISK. AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS/LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION CONTINUES TO UNFOLD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE PART OF MS/AL...WITH ADJACENT PORTIONS OF TN/NORTHWEST GA ALSO EXPECTED TO BECOME A CONCERN LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...REASONABLY SUPPORTED BY EXPERIMENTAL HRRR GUIDANCE...IMPLY THAT SCATTERED SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM IN BROKEN NNE-SSW ORIENTED CORRIDORS OF SUBTLE CONFLUENCE AHEAD /EAST/ OF MORE STORMS/SUPERCELLS THAT ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A PRE-COLD FRONTAL TROUGH/DRYLINE GENERALLY NEARING I-55 IN MS. THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS HAS AGGRESSIVELY DESTABILIZED THIS AFTERNOON AMID NEAR 70F/LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS...REFERENCE SPECIAL 18Z OBSERVED RAOBS FROM JACKSON MS/BIRMINGHAM AL...WITH A WIDE/HIGHLY SHEARED MOIST SECTOR IN PLACE ALONG/SOUTH OF A MODIFYING WEST-EAST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY /NOW AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT/ ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF AL/MS. EXTREME LOW LEVEL SHEAR...VIA LONG/CURVING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...WILL REMAIN HIGHLY CONDUCIVE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LONG-TRACK STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES INTO THIS EVENING AMID 0-1 KM SRH OF 300-500 M2/S2 OR GREATER /ESPECIALLY NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN MS AND AL BOUNDARY/. ..GUYER.. 04/27/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 A repost of my thoughts on another forum: Another interest I have with the Plains drought, is not only an eastward of the seasonal Plains dryline, but also in an effective dryline (not just a cold front) making it much farther east due to an influx of dry air on the back side of the sfc cyclone, as in into the MS Valley region. This type of setup has traditionally lead to major outbreaks through the MS Valley and eastward, with the 1965 Palm Sunday outbreak, a certain one a couple of years ago (shown in the MCD below), and the 1974 Super Outbreak among them. 4/3/56 was another time that happened. There was a surge of like 10s/20s dewpoints into IL during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I'm willing to bet the Belvidere/Oak Lawn event was another case. Edit: Actually on further analysis, the 4/21/67 event was more of a warm frontal focussed event initially, with a double barrelled sfc low configuration at 18z with one sfc low center near Thunder Bay, ON and another in south central KS, with the warm front of the second draped over Northern IL/southern WI, then by 00z 4/22, the southern low consolidates into a trough extending from the northern low over Lake Superior. At 20z, an elongated low center is evident based on sfc maps, with the NE extent of the 998 hPa contour into NW IL, which likely acted as the forcing mechanism and also contributed to very strong low level shear. The dewpoints weren't overly excessive either, being in the high 50s to low 60s across the area, but it was certainly enough given the cold mid level temps (-13 to -18 degrees at H5 by 00z) and strength of the environmental wind fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 Andy, this is a nice read about 4/3/56 in case you haven't seen it. http://www.ejssm.org/ojs/index.php/ejssm/article/view/36/36http://www.ejssm.org/ojs/index.php/ejssm/article/view/36/36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Cheers, will check it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 Looking at some obs from 4/3/56...MLI was 75/9 with sustained winds over 50 mph at 2 PM...lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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