Climate Change Banter

[AvantHiatus]

Current +PDO is likely enhanced by AGW. I know we debated this before and according to ORH, warming global temperatures does not change the PDO because it is not detrended? In another sense, the true marker of the PDO is the contrast between different regions of the Pacific Ocean.

[ORH_wxman]

Current +PDO is likely enhanced by AGW. I know we debated this before and according to ORH, warming global temperatures does not change the PDO because it is not detrended? In another sense, the true marker of the PDO is the contrast between different regions of the Pacific Ocean.

 

No, the PDO is detrended. They remove the backround global SST warming trend. The PDO is essentially a measure in the difference of anomalies in two regions of the northern hemisphere Pacific.

[AvantHiatus]

No, the PDO is detrended. They remove the backround global SST warming trend. The PDO is essentially a measure in the difference of anomalies in two regions of the northern hemisphere Pacific.

In that sense, perhaps the el nino and AGW forcing is torching the entire Pacific, into a unescapable state. We would need to see la nina again for the PDO to go negative. Has there ever been a el nino during a -PDO?

 

All the talk about the AMO or PDO changing is bs. The AMO part is due to AMOC collapse and the PDO part is due to ocean heat content explosion. We will get to a point where AGW overrides natural oscillations through fast feedbacks across the board.

[ORH_wxman]

In that sense, perhaps the el nino and AGW forcing is torching the entire Pacific, into a unescapable state. We would need to see la nina again for the PDO to go negative. Has there ever been a el nino during a -PDO?

 

All the talk about the AMO or PDO changing is bs. The AMO part is due to AMOC collapse and the PDO part is due to ocean heat content explosion. We will get to a point where AGW overrides natural oscillations through fast feedbacks across the board.

 

I don't think you are understanding what detrended means...it means the backround signal is taken out, so we're only measuring the difference between two areas of the Pacific. The water could be almost boiling temperature and you can get a -PDO if the Gulf of AK down the West Coast is colder relative to normal than the waters south of the Aleutians.

 

 

As for the AMO, you'd probably want to read up on the hundreds of papers published that describe its behavior before making silly guesses about its decline since the mid 2000s.

[AvantHiatus]

The AMO hasn't declined since the mid 2000's, it's a recent phenomenon roughly correleating with the 2011-2012 explosion in Arctic melt.  Judging by what you said, it's impossible to determine how the AGW influences PDO by just looking at the raw numbers.

 

The torching North Pacific has reduced some of the contrast that would otherwise exist, even tho the equator has warmed in tandem.

[ORH_wxman]

The AMO hasn't declined since the mid 2000's, it's a recent phenomenon roughly correleating with the 2011-2012 explosion in Arctic melt.  Judging by what you said, it's impossible to determine how the AGW influences PDO by just looking at the raw numbers.

 

The torching North Pacific has reduced some of the contrast that would otherwise exist, even tho the equator has warmed in tandem.

 

It is impossible to have a coherent conversation on the subject if you are unwilling to do any self-education on what the AMO and PDO are and how they are measured.

 

 

If you want to keep it very simple...the general trend in North Atlantic SST anomalies has been slowly downward since the mid-2000s, with the big post-El Nino spike in 2010 quite evident

 

 

[AvantHiatus]

How is the el nino related to the Atlantic SSTA field? Making stuff up like SOC now?

 

Textbook -AMO, let me you tell you. I am always right when stuff is close to home, because I can see it empirically. You should not challenge me on this if you value your reputation as a sound poster.

 

[ORH_wxman]

How is the el nino related to the Atlantic SSTA field? Making stuff up like SOC now?

 

Textbook -AMO, let me you tell you. I am always right when stuff is close to home, because I can see it empirically. You should not challenge me on this if you value your reputation as a sound poster.

 

 

 

 

Now you are just totally off your rocker....if you actually read up on ENSO, then you would know that all the heat that comes to the surfaces gets redistributed around the globe, such that other regions show a lagged warming to +ENSO events.

 

One of the better prominent papers on the subject was by Kevin Trenberth years ago...read up because you clearly have demonstrated a lack of knowledge on the subject:

 

http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/papers/jgr2001b/jgr2.html

[AvantHiatus]

Then we should expect the North Atlantic SSTA to go upwards again this year due to the emerging el nino. I see a flat trend from mid 2000's to 2012 if you cancel out the peaks and valleys.

 

Care to explain why the western branch of the Gulf Stream is torching 24/7 365? The only way to explain it is to admit that AGW is overwhelming the natural signal.

[StudentOfClimatology]

How is the el nino related to the Atlantic SSTA field? Making stuff up like SOC now?

You're the one making stuff up, not me.

[LakeEffectKing]

Then we should expect the North Atlantic SSTA to go upwards again this year due to the emerging el nino. I see a flat trend from mid 2000's to 2012 if you cancel out the peaks and valleys.

 

Care to explain why the western branch of the Gulf Stream is torching 24/7 365? The only way to explain it is to admit that AGW is overwhelming the natural signal.

Are you losing it?....or never had it to begin with?....You are going to post yourself into obscurity....READ!!!!!!!

[AvantHiatus]

Are you losing it?....or never had it to begin with?....You are going to post yourself into obscurity....READ!!!!!!!

Wake up

 

 

 

Care to explain why the western branch of the Gulf Stream is torching 24/7 365? The only way to explain it is to admit that AGW is overwhelming the natural signal.

[AvantHiatus]

Why should I listen to people who can't even read a graph? Everyone here is in denial. Same old crew coming to back up the so-called 'go-to' source on these forums.

 

and the constant stream of belligerence and small talk. This is not a scientific forum.

[ORH_wxman]

Why should I listen to people who can't even read a graph? Everyone here is in denial. Same old crew coming to back up the so-called 'go-to' source on these forums.

 

and the constant stream of belligerence and small talk. This is not a scientific forum.

 

You want an explanation of an extremely small area of the ocean on why it is way above average? You could pick out multiple areas that size that are well below or well above average across the global oceans...an area around the Gulf Stream is extra sensitive to wobbles in the current, which is why directly adjacent to it, you see extremely strong values below normal.

 

Post some literature on why you think ENSO has no effect on Atlantic SSTs or why global warming has altered the PDO and the AMO...don't just sit there and accuse those who actually provide you with literature (that you subsequently refuse to read) as the ones who are lying or making things up.

[SVT450R]

Are you losing it?....or never had it to begin with?....You are going to post yourself into obscurity....READ!!!!!!!

I don't think anyone here takes anything he post seriously. 

[AvantHiatus]

I don't think anyone here takes anything he post seriously. 

Choosing to ignore my posts won't change reality. Some of you are in for a rude awkening.

 

You pretty much answered your own hypothesis there ORH. Gulf Stream has moved north and it's trajectory has changed, hint hint AMOC shutdown.

 

I have no reason to be alarmist other than to save my own future. Doesn't get more egotistical and truthful than that.

[LakeEffectKing]

I don't think anyone here takes anything he post seriously.

Oh...ok...so most are in agreement that he posts for entertainment purposes only....Got it!

[LakeEffectKing]

Choosing to ignore my posts won't change reality. Some of you are in for a rude awkening.

 

You pretty much answered your own hypothesis there ORH. Gulf Stream has moved north and it's trajectory has changed, hint hint AMOC shutdown.

:popcorn: :popcorn:

[StudentOfClimatology]

Choosing to ignore my posts won't change reality. Some of you are in for a rude awkening.

You pretty much answered your own hypothesis there ORH. Gulf Stream has moved north and it's trajectory has changed, hint hint AMOC shutdown.

If the Gulf Stream has moved north, that'd indicate a strengthening of the AMOC, not a weakening.

Do some research before posting next time.

[ORH_wxman]

I wonder why the gulf stream was below average last summer:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I guess the AMOC shutdown just happened this winter.

[AvantHiatus]

If the Gulf Stream has moved north, that'd indicate a strengthening of the AMOC, not a weakening.

Do some research before posting next time.

Seems counter-intuitive right? Not exactly, it is compensating by being weaker on the North Atlantic end. A healthy gulf stream allows the water to move away from the North American coast faster. There have been several studies linking AMOC slowdown to regional sea level rise.

 

That was cherry-picked ORH. I think you are trolling this conversation now.

[StudentOfClimatology]

That makes no sense. If the northern Gulf Stream is gaining latitude as you say, it can't be weaker..where's it getting the energy to penetrate further NE over the NATL?

Why do you make stuff up like this?

[AvantHiatus]

That makes no sense. If the northern Gulf Stream is gaining latitude as you say, it can't be weaker..where's it getting the energy to penetrate further NE over the NATL?

Why do you make stuff up like this?

Due to the Coriolis force, warm ocean currents are more prone to traveling north. The diminished overturning weakens the influence of the southward branch of the Labrador Current.

[SVT450R]

Choosing to ignore my posts won't change reality. Some of you are in for a rude awkening.

 

You pretty much answered your own hypothesis there ORH. Gulf Stream has moved north and it's trajectory has changed, hint hint AMOC shutdown.

 

I have no reason to be alarmist other than to save my own future. Doesn't get more egotistical and truthful than that.

Yea i choose to ignore and not take you seriously when you continue to post disinformation.

 

Oh...ok...so most are in agreement that he posts for entertainment purposes only....Got it!

Yea I'm starting to lean towards straight trolling.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Due to the Coriolis force, warm ocean currents are more prone to traveling north. The diminished overturning weakens the influence of the southward branch of the Labrador Current.

So the Earth is rotating faster now? Why would the coriolis force strengthen?

Plus, if more warm water is being transported northward, then more cold water must also be transported south..conservation of mass. This would represent a stronger AMOC, too.

I'm done responding to this crap.

[The_Global_Warmer]

ORH is right. There is a undeniable tie between ENSO and the NATL ssts.

IIRC it's like a 4-6 month lag

[The_Global_Warmer]

Due to the Coriolis force, warm ocean currents are more prone to traveling north. The diminished overturning weakens the influence of the southward branch of the Labrador Current.

It's just as likely the Labrador Current has been weakened by the Barents water being warmed by GIS ice melt.

Water 8-12C since 2011 has poured into the Barents off the west coast of GIS.

I am certain I've read it slows down the Labrador current.

Which would allow warmer water to reach further NW.

[chrisf97212]

We'd have to see a noticeable cooling by 2017-2018 or so because by that point, we'd be more than 3 years beyond the weak solar max we had in cycle 24. It's been argued by some that the weak solar maxes are more important than the mins during decreased acitivty...so you can pretty much discard the theory if by 2018 the effects of the weak max and subsequent min have not been felt to a significant degree. I'm fairly skeptical though on it having a large impact. We may see a muted effect like we did from 2008-2012...we'll find out soon enough.

 

I'd give it the same amount of time as is given CMIP to verify.  Personally I suspect weak solar and aerosols are masking CO2 warming.

[chrisf97212]

Why should I listen to people who can't even read a graph? Everyone here is in denial. Same old crew coming to back up the so-called 'go-to' source on these forums.

 

and the constant stream of belligerence and small talk. This is not a scientific forum.

 

Weren't you the one quoting the Unabomber?

[AvantHiatus]

Weren't you the one quoting the Unabomber?

Irrelevant. Please take all this stuff to the banter thread. I'm kind of mad at myself now for filling up the GT thread with bad posts, and not just on my end.

 

If you think industrial society is sustainable in its current form then I don't know what to say.

 

When we look at back at people like Ted Kaczynski, we see a high tier potentially well-off white man with a genius IQ. It's that he was not insane and was so passionate about his ideas that he killed people over them. We can discredit him as a person but he was absolutely correct in his ideas.