Climate Change Banter

[AvantHiatus]

This is so silly I cant even tell if your just being a troll here.......or you are somehow implying this has something to do with AGW.  There was 34 degree of temp rise in 12 hrs that isn't exactly unheard of this time of year... , the entire article is totally stupid and written by someone with no understanding of the normal climate in this part of the world apparently because it wasn't amazing....unless he just means how changeable the weather is the April on the east coast.

Hence why it's in banter.

[LocoAko]

Hence why it's in banter.

 

So banter == trolling, then? 

[AvantHiatus]

It was an interesting event and published by AGU, definitely worth posting. Especially for you to come out of the woodwork, I miss your posts but granted I don't visit your subforum that often.

[downeastnc]

It was an interesting event and published by AGU, definitely worth posting. Especially for you to come out of the woodwork, I miss your posts but granted I don't visit your subforum that often.

 

Guess I don't see how normal weather is "definitely worth posting", it isn't even a interesting article.  

[Fozz]

It was an interesting event and published by AGU, definitely worth posting. Especially for you to come out of the woodwork, I miss your posts but granted I don't visit your subforum that often.

 

Why? What's the point of posting something that has nothing to do with climate change in a climate change forum?

[tamarack]

Why? What's the point of posting something that has nothing to do with climate change in a climate change forum?

 

Well, at least it was in the banter thread.  However, my understanding was that a facet of warming in the East was milder minima, which would result in slightly lower diurnal ranges.

[ORH_wxman]

Well, at least it was in the banter thread.  However, my understanding was that a facet of warming in the East was milder minima, which would result in slightly lower diurnal ranges.

 

 

Yes....Tmax has warmed significantly slower than Tmin.

[AvantHiatus]

Guess I don't see how normal weather is "definitely worth posting", it isn't even a interesting article.  

You would of had to of been here to understand the situation. The day before we were locked in with a heavy marine airmass, highs in the lower 40's. Some places in SE VA were 2-3 degrees away from their daily record high.

[StudentOfClimatology]

You would of had to of been here to understand the situation. The day before we were locked in with a heavy marine airmass, highs in the lower 40's. Some places in SE VA were 2-3 degrees away from their daily record high.

I've lived here all my life..that's totally normal for this time of year.

Your area never got out of the wedge that day anyway..in fact most of the area underperformed on temps. Keep making things up if you feel the need to, though.

[AvantHiatus]

I've lived here all my life..that's totally normal for this time of year.

Your area never got out of the wedge that day anyway..in fact most of the area underperformed on temps. Keep making things up if you feel the need to, though.

I'm not making anything up man, do you really hate me that much? High here was 69, forecast was 63. Where it was warm, it overperformed and where it was cold it overperformed in the other direction.

 

This goes back to your obsession about the mid-atlantic being a little pocket of land from Woodbridge to Pikesville.

[StudentOfClimatology]

I'm not making anything up man, do you really hate me that much? High here was 69, forecast was 63. Where it was warm, it overperformed and where it was cold it overperformed in the other direction.

This goes back to your obsession about the mid-atlantic being a little pocket of land from Woodbridge to Pikesville.

You've got me confused with someone else, regarding the geographical boundaries of the Mid-Atlantic. I remember that exchange and I had nothing to do with it.

I actually like you, personally, based on what I've read from you. I just think you'd make a better politician than a scientist, considering most of what you say is hogwash.

[AvantHiatus]

Sick triad of posts, keep it up.

[downeastnc]

You would of had to of been here to understand the situation. The day before we were locked in with a heavy marine airmass, highs in the lower 40's. Some places in SE VA were 2-3 degrees away from their daily record high.

 

Dude I live in NC I totally understand how CAD setups work, it is nothing for there to be 20 or even 30 degree temp differences here in just 20 miles.....it happens dozens of times every year. I cant count the times we sat in the mid 30's while New Bern 45 miles away was in the low 60's. I have also been the guy in the 60-70 while Raleigh stayed stuck in the 30-40's. I have seen the temp stay rock steady at the same temp for a day or two once we get wedged in, the temp will actually stay the exact same thing for 24-48 hrs and then it can warm up 10-20 degrees in just a hr or two. None of that has anything at all to do with AGW.

[blizzard1024]

 1877-8 being a very strong El Nino likely was a major factor for so much warmth in the N US. The two still warmest winters on record for ATL were way back in 1879-80 and 1889-90! I bet very few would have ever guessed that. These surrounded two very cold winters in 1884-5 and 1885-6 and were followed by the very cold periods already mentioned during the 1890's as well as the early 1900's.

 

 

Be careful on this. They might have adjusted these warm winters down so they may not be the warmest on record as you state. The adjusted data is now the real data and the observed data is the false data. you need to get with the program  /sarc.

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

This is so silly I cant even tell if your just being a troll here.......or you are somehow implying this has something to do with AGW.  There was 34 degree of temp rise in 12 hrs that isn't exactly unheard of this time of year... , the entire article is totally stupid and written by someone with no understanding of the normal climate in this part of the world apparently because it wasn't amazing....unless he just means how changeable the weather is the April on the east coast.

 

http://blogs.agu.org/wildwildscience/2015/04/10/amazing-temperature-change-over-the-mid-atlantic-friday/

 

 

 

 

why is he a troll, just for posting straight up facts ?   I thought his article was pretty insightful  . And it's nice to see people micro-blogging about weather in their area.

 

"ohh boy, he's for Climate Change....lets troll him to oblivion"  basically the mindset of the deny'ers here.

 

btw,  it hit 70 here today. 

[AvantHiatus]

 

Let us not forget about the endless posting about record Great Lakes ice cover and other micro-climate issues. They are important because they help us conceptualize the direct effects of climate change.

 

While I agree that the climate change signal was weak in this April 10th 'heat-burst' event. It is an example of what is actually possible earlier in the year. Pre-1960, highs in the 90s before May was unheard of in these regions. (Coastal Mid-Atlantic)

 

This all occured when the height pattern wasn't even that conductive for big heat, and most areas started off with clouds and fog until late morning. We can feel the effects of climate change every day if we are not just focused on numbers and records.

 

I have a theory that we have been warming more in relation to the increase in 500mb heights in recent years. We haven't had any substantial opportunities to see the new transition due to the everlasting barrage of cold intrusions from Canada even in the heart of summer.

 

Daily minimums have also exploded upwards since 2000 in the US, especially CFA regions. I will no doubt have another low in the 80s this summer at least once.

 

[AvantHiatus]

Our cold pattern could not exist without these kinds of departures. Case closed. The moral of the story is that the climate system affects an intricate system of connections and I won't back down on this.

 

I can't afford to have a false picture of the state of the climate, or delay strict policy action any longer. It may already be too late to save Miami in the long-haul and we are already guaranteed to lose massive amounts of GDP along coastlines worldwide. When you make up stuff about climate change and draw inclusions, think of those who are deeply hurt by your misunderstandings.

 

I wish we could all live in upstate Michigan and be cooled by lake breezes. It was easy to see why climate change has become strongly associated with public relations.

 

Stuff like that spreads quickly thru the mass media. Climate denial has been more successful than the pro-tobacco campaigns of the 1970s by a wide margin. Living in a world of 7-8 billion people will also amplify the situation and make it more apparent overtime, we cannot afford to have reductions in agriculture production, either due to drought or coastal flooding.

 

For example, the rice industry in SE Asia is in great danger of becoming untenable, and that sector supplies a massive chunk of food for the world's population.

 

In the end, the struggles of other regions will inevitably spread to your backyard, it's only a matter of time and whether you will fight for reform on all fronts. Some will no doubt blame globalization for our problems but the core issue involves the intersection of industrial society and climate change.

 

We can either collapse in a controlled and planned manner or catastrophically with full-scale conflict economically and politically. 

 

 

[AvantHiatus]

68. It may be objected that primitive man is physically less secure than modern man, as is shown by his shorter life expectancy; hence modern man suffers from less, not more than the amount of insecurity that is normal for human beings. But psychological security does not closely correspond with physical security. What makes us FEEL secure is not so much objective security as a sense of confidence in our ability to take care of ourselves. Primitive man, threatened by a fierce animal or by hunger, can fight in self-defense or travel in search of food. He has no certainty of success in these efforts, but he is by no means helpless against the things that threaten him. The modern individual on the other hand is threatened by many things against which he is helpless: nuclear accidents, carcinogens in food, environmental pollution, war, increasing taxes, invasion of his privacy by large organizations, nationwide social or economic phenomena that may disrupt his way of life.

 

119. The system does not and cannot exist to satisfy human needs. Instead, it is human behavior that has to be modified to fit the needs of the system. This has nothing to do with the political or social ideology that may pretend to guide the technological system. It is the fault of technology, because the system is guided not by ideology but by technical necessity. [18] Of course the system does satisfy many human needs, but generally speaking it does this only to the extend that it is to the advantage of the system to do it. It is the needs of the system that are paramount, not those of the human being. For example, the system provides people with food because the system couldn’t function if everyone starved; it attends to people’s psychological needs whenever it can CONVENIENTLY do so, because it couldn’t function if too many people became depressed or rebellious. But the system, for good, solid, practical reasons, must exert constant pressure on people to mold their behavior to the needs of the system. To much waste accumulating? The government, the media, the educational system, environmentalists, everyone inundates us with a mass of propaganda about recycling. Need more technical personnel? A chorus of voices exhorts kids to study science. No one stops to ask whether it is inhumane to force adolescents to spend the bulk of their time studying subjects most of them hate. When skilled workers are put out of a job by technical advances and have to undergo “retraining,” no one asks whether it is humiliating for them to be pushed around in this way. It is simply taken for granted that everyone must bow to technical necessity. and for good reason: If human needs were put before technical necessity there would be economic problems, unemployment, shortages or worse. The concept of “mental health” in our society is defined largely by the extent to which an individual behaves in accord with the needs of the system and does so without showing signs of stress.

 

137. Take our environmental problems, for example. Here the conflict of values is straightforward: economic expedience now versus saving some of our natural resources for our grandchildren. [22] But on this subject we get only a lot of blather and obfuscation from the people who have power, and nothing like a clear, consistent line of action, and we keep on piling up environmental problems that our grandchildren will have to live with. Attempts to resolve the environmental issue consist of struggles and compromises between different factions, some of which are ascendant at one moment, others at another moment. The line of struggle changes with the shifting currents of public opinion. This is not a rational process, nor is it one that is likely to lead to a timely and successful solution to the problem. Major social problems, if they get “solved” at all, are rarely or never solved through any rational, comprehensive plan. They just work themselves out through a process in which various competing groups pursuing their own (usually short- term) self-interest [23] arrive (mainly by luck) at some more or less stable modus vivendi. In fact, the principles we formulated in paragraphs 100-106 make it seem doubtful that rational, long-term social planning can EVER be successful.

 

Posted to hopefully explain why we have climate denial and people who deny based on personal feelings and political agendas. 

[GaWx]

CA drought being blamed on CC. Any comments?

http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/at-the-edge/2015/04/14/climate-change-and-the-california-drought

[nflwxman]

CA drought being blamed on CC. Any comments?

http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/at-the-edge/2015/04/14/climate-change-and-the-california-drought

Truth be told, it's probably going to be very hard to attribute these types of events to climate change in the short term.  My personal feeling?  The drought is being made worse by AGW due to the anomalous NPAC and GOA anomalies that have really pumped the ridge in the west the last decade.  Would the "ridiculously resilient ridge" still exist without AGW?  Probably.  It's often a feature in a -PDO regime.  However, if the graph below is not compelling enough to suggest something is "off," i'm not sure what is.

 

[ORH_wxman]

CA drought being blamed on CC. Any comments?

http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/at-the-edge/2015/04/14/climate-change-and-the-california-drought

 

The article isn't that bad except for the title...the title is typical media garbage. CC didn't "cause" the drought...unless you want to play that silly semantics game about the butterfly effect (CC affects every little parcel of air)...rather than having some scientific integrity and talking about relative changes.

 

The idea that CC can enhance droughts because of warmer temps is sound. The one bizarre part of the aritcle though was talking about the 20th century decline in rainfall in CA as if that has a lot of meaning. The paleo record shows that one of the wettest periods on record is the mid 19th century to the mid 20th century. CA has seen droughts that span decades or even centuries in the past.

[AvantHiatus]

In hindsight, apologies for the rant. Unabomber did some horrendous things and I am not affiliated with him, he should of went down a different path if he really wanted to make a difference. Good to see you guys are dissecting what is important tho.

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

In hindsight, apologies for the rant. Unabomber did some horrendous things and I am not affiliated with him, he should of went down a different path if he really wanted to make a difference. Good to see you guys are dissecting what is important tho.

 

 

Interested where you found those excerpts... ?   The 68, 119 stuff.

 

All legitimate stuff,  even though it's in our human nature to block out the negative, and mostly concentrate on the 'happy' positive. 

 

Being blind to the obvious (like so many people are) is almost just as bad though. 

[AvantHiatus]

Interested where you found those excerpts... ?   The 68, 119 stuff.

 

All legitimate stuff,  even though it's in our human nature to block out the negative, and mostly concentrate on the 'happy' positive. 

 

Being blind to the obvious (like so many people are) is almost just as bad though. 

Unabomber manifesto. 

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

noice

[AvantHiatus]

noice

[Snow_Miser]

Awesome talk by Dr. Richard Alley at the annual 2015 Penn State Chi Epsilon Pi spring buffet. Talked about how the geologic record showed Carbon Dioxide as a significant causal agent of warming and the non significant aspect of cosmic rays on the climate.

[AvantHiatus]

https://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2015/04/17/the-dry-land-burned-like-grass-siberias-road-to-a-permaburn-hell/

“The Dry Land Burned Like Grass” — Siberia’s Road to a Permaburn Hell

[The_Global_Warmer]

Looks like a cooler Russian pattern setting up atleast

[AvantHiatus]

No, it's a conspiracy theory SOC . ISCCP, stitched together from a million different satellites, is perfect and has zero issues.

Don't waste your time responding. A full blown argument will ensue and someone will get banned. SOC is a contrarian, and that would be a generous title. Unfortunately for him, I cannot offer a benefit of the doubt due to past fiasco.