Climate Change Banter

[AvantHiatus]

 

 

Like nearly all Americans, Californians are slow to accept the reality of the future they face"[groundwater] pumping rates are excessive and unsustainable," says Famiglietti. "Wells are running dry. In some areas of the Central Valley, the land is sinking by one foot or more per year."

California, it turns out, is sinking at every level: it's a horrendously expensive business environment, a rapidly expanding police state that tramples on constitutional freedoms, a high income tax state, a high crime rate state and a high rent state. California is running out of easy jobs, easy money and cheap water. No wonder the Northern half of the state wants to break away from the Southern half and declare itself a sovereign state.

So what happens to all the Californians in the Southern half of the state? What happens to Los Angeles, let's say, when the water gets rationed two just two days a week like we're already witnessing in Sao Paulo, Brazil?

It's abundantly obvious that almost no one actually living in California has yet come to their senses about the reality of this situation, because if they did, there would be a glut of homes for sale as everyone tried to get out ahead of the water collapse. "The last people to understand the collapse of an empire are those who live within it." writes Jeff Thomas of InternationalMan.com. He's speaking about the U.S. empire, but the lesson simultaneously applies to California, Sao Paulo, or all the cities and towns served by water from Lake Mead (which is also rapidly running out of water).

By and large, people are unwilling to accept the reality of where things are headed because doing so would require them to take action. And action is difficult. It required courage, effort and even inconvenience. Besides, the population of California has been discouraged from thinking ahead about anything, thanks to the nanny state politicians running the show there -- people who get elected by disingenuously promising the voters that government will take care of them.

But it turns out that even Nancy Pelosi cannot materialize water out of thin air, although she might be happy to suggest we should all blindly enact a new water law so we can find out what's in it. Governments can lie about the debt, lie about unemployment and fudge economic statistics until they're blue in the face; but they cannot trick people into thinking there's water fallout out of the sky when it isn't. Yes, the average brainwashed California voter is brutally propagandized to such an extreme that they really do believe unvaccinated children are a far greater threat to society than undocumented gang bangers, but even these people know the difference between RAIN and NO RAIN.

My guess is that the next move of the California government will be to declare "drought" to be an "anti-science conspiracy theory" and start publicly berating anyone who dares speak the word. "There's water everywhere!" we'll all be told, as orchards shrivel into dust and California's agricultural sector implodes. "People who believe in droughts also think the Earth is flat!"

I can't wait for California's Governor to go on television and declare, "I did not have sexual relations with that woman, Mrs. Drought."

Learn more: http://www.naturalnews.com/049008_California_drought_water_supply_ecological_collapse.html#ixzz3UTIy1CQW

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

^ rumor has it, they only have a year of water left.

 

and no backup plan?   ohhh boy.    

 

... as the dry season approaches. 

[The_Global_Warmer]

An energy efficient gigantic solar/wind/hydro powered desalinazation plant on as massive scale.

Requirung lots of Inginuity, new technology, and money.

You're sitting next to a limitless supply of water.

Figure it out

[AvantHiatus]

Then there is a question of why you would want to live in an Arid wasteland, and then becoming physically too hot this century to be outside. If projections hold.

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

An energy efficient gigantic solar/wind/hydro powered desalinazation plant on as massive scale.

Requirung lots of Inginuity, new technology, and money.

You're sitting next to a limitless supply of water.

Figure it out

 

 

good point.

 

why they waited so long ? baffling. 

[LithiaWx]

Then there is a question of why you would want to live in an Arid wasteland, and then becoming physically too hot this century to be outside. If projections hold.

 

You mean Atlanta in Summer?

[AvantHiatus]

You mean Atlanta in Summer?

Lol, Atlanta is like DC with less rain. Just saying, would be wise to think twice before throwing huge investment into fixing the problem thru desalination. Seems like wishful thinking.

[AvantHiatus]

[AvantHiatus]

So you basically decided to make a post stating the obscenely obvious rooted in semantics....

 

Ok, thanks for the contribution.

You may want to speak with Student of Climatology about contributions. Don't worry, you will understand when 2015 comes in at like 0.80C or some bat**** anomaly on GISS.

[AvantHiatus]

And the ability to toss out what is happening in the Antarctic, what a useful predetermined purposing.l

There is nothing happening down there besides massive glacier melt from ocean upwelling. Surface temperatures are stable across the continent and rising in the WAIS region.

[Jonger]

I'd error on the side of safety and start cutting back CO2...

 

I'd rather see a carbon tax aimed at developing a way to remove the carbon from the atmosphere and stored.

 

Anyhow, in 50 years I bet we don't crack a foot of rise. TBH.

[AvantHiatus]

[AvantHiatus]

Yeah you keep deflecting to us to back up your assertions that go against the grain but why would anyone do that?  There is literature and basic physics that says one thing and then there is you telling us that we should run analysis that takes time in order to prove you right?  You would think that if you had research that went against the established literature and you could back it up that you yourself would have published it and you could just point us to SoC et al 2014 to show this.

[A-L-E-K]

I'd error on the side of safety and start cutting back CO2...

 

I'd rather see a carbon tax aimed at developing a way to remove the carbon from the atmosphere and stored.

 

Anyhow, in 50 years I bet we don't crack a foot of rise. TBH.

 

even assuming the current rate stays constant (it's increasing) that already gets us to over half a foot.

[AvantHiatus]

even assuming the current rate stays constant (it's increasing) that already gets us to over half a foot.

It's way way higher than that on longer timescales. Half a foot is reachable by 2025.

[ORH_wxman]

It's way way higher than that on longer timescales. Half a foot is reachable by 2025.

 

 

No it isn't.

 

The current SLR rate gives us about 1.2 inches by 2025. Increasing the average by 5-fold starting now over the next 10 years is unrealistic.

[nflwxman]

No it isn't.

 

The current SLR rate gives us about 1.2 inches by 2025. Increasing the average by 5-fold starting now over the next 10 years is unrealistic.

2025 is in 10 years.  That would be a hell of an acceleration.

 

That type of acceleration is likely reserved for the second half of the century if/when ice sheet losses become much higher.

[AvantHiatus]

No it isn't.

 

The current SLR rate gives us about 1.2 inches by 2025. Increasing the average by 5-fold starting now over the next 10 years is unrealistic.

The current rate of rise will accelerate, likely falling in between our expectations by 2025. Perhaps 3" or thereabouts. By 2035, things will surely accelerate rapidly on our current emissions pathway.

 

The TOA forcing is responding to CO2 concentrations that were present in 2005.

[ORH_wxman]

The current rate of rise will accelerate, likely falling in between our expectations by 2025. Perhaps 3" or thereabouts. By 2035, things will surely accelerate rapidly on our current emissions pathway.

 

The TOA forcing is responding to CO2 concentrations that were present in 2005.

 

 

You're numbers are not realistic. You can talk about CO2 all you want, but your math still has to make sense.

 

3 inches in 10 years is still something like 8mm per year SLR. That probably hasn't been seen in the past couple thousand years.

[Jonger]

Like I said... There won't be a foot of rise in the next 50 years.

 

I'm not saying to base any policy on my guess, it's just a guess.

[StudentOfClimatology]

That would be due to internal natural variability. It's very unusual for the global temperature to increase 0.2c/decade, even in paleorecords. Thus we are still in uncharted waters if you include the hiatus.

Very few proxies are of a sufficient resolution to depict variability like that. Of the few that can, it's not that common to see brief excursions of ~ 0.25C/decade, though they're usually not lasting. Both GISP2 and the SP/EA borehole aggregates reveal this unstable behavior, at a frequency of about 5-10 times per millennium.

http://www.gisp2.sr.unh.edu

I like this image because it incorporates the recent AGW onto the proxy data, though oxygen based isotope cores are actually more of a hemispheric proxy than a local proxy.

There were much larger temperature swings during the early/mid Holocene, as well, with the 8200 kiloyear event standing out as the most extreme excursion in the Holocene, so far, w/a cooling exceeding 2C by most estimates. Obviously the current warming will likely surpass that eventually.

If you go further back, into the last stadial, temperature instability was on the order of 5-7X greater than it was during the majority of the Holocene. The Younger Dryas was the big kahuna, with estimated hemispheric warming of up to 7C within a single decade.

So, I wouldn't call the current temperature change unprecedented, at least not yet.

[AvantHiatus]

Like I said... There won't be a foot of rise in the next 50 years.

 

I'm not saying to base any policy on my guess, it's just a guess.

So the general consensus is still "we won't have to deal with it because we will be dead". The situation is like trying to forecast a backdoor cold front, a slight delay could spike your daily high temperature 5-10 degrees.

 

I see the disagreements as emotional and not based on fact. I admit my evidence for 1/2' rise by 2025 is also lacking. I'm just perhaps too aware of ocean dynamics and non-linear tipping points.

 

Like the Gulf Stream Slowdown study mentioned. The SLR does not need to come from glacial melt. There are way too many sources of SLR locally to rule out that much rise by 2025., in places that we care about. We have family there, from BOS to ORF corridor. There is an emotional investment, and a reaction to the reality of the situation.

 

In short, we are entering a period of unprecendented change, even if you subscribe to IPCC. Granted for them, things start hitting the fan post-2030.

 

When I mention SLR, the predictions are always for the Eastern Atlantic Seaboard. Not the global average. For the record. Obviously, the west coast does not need to worry about Sea Level Rise due to local topography and ocean currents, at least for a very long time. (post-2050)

[SVT450R]

You're numbers are not realistic. You can talk about CO2 all you want, but your math still has to make sense.

 

3 inches in 10 years is still something like 8mm per year SLR. That probably hasn't been seen in the past couple thousand years.

Why use math and observations when you can use emotional hyperbole instead.

[AvantHiatus]

Why us math and observations when you can use emotional hyperbole instead.

Pardon? 

 

[ORH_wxman]

Pardon? 

 

 

 

[AvantHiatus]

All joking aside, it's based on a SSTA domain? I'm still trying to figure out how accurate it is.

[SVT450R]

Pardon? 

 

 

What's not to understand your numbers don't add up and are unrealistic.  Should we just throw away observational data?  I get it we reached the tipping point and are now in a death spiral so all previous data/research is obsolete did i get that rite?

[The_Global_Warmer]

I admit I look forward big time to seeing how the denier community handles it when 2015 destroys the global temp records.

[The_Global_Warmer]

OMG IT'S A CONSPIRACY.

 

 

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2015/03/16/giss-still-diverging-from-satellites/

[nflwxman]

I admit I look forward big time to seeing how the denier community handles it when 2015 destroys the global temp records.

The same way they did with 2014.  They will basically ignore it and talk about how amazing the 0.2 sigma above normal the antarctic sea ice is or how the next La Nina will send us back into an ice age.

 

I can't believe how dense some people can be while comparing satellite and surface data.  If you are going to claim conspiracy, at least compare measurements of the same thing!!