Climate Change Banter

[LithiaWx]

The claims of a 10 foot SLR by 2100 are irresponsible.  It isn't going to happen, even the most aggressive modeling says a 10' rise in 85 years is quackery.  You aren't helping, you are hurting the cause of bringing awareness and taking the ridiculousness out of CC debates.

[AvantHiatus]

I think locally it will be that high, the global mean could definitely be closer to 5ft. I mostly care about what happens in the US and not some distant third world country.

 

It's impossible to deny that sea level will be 100ft higher by 2350 on the current emissions pathway. Only a question of how fast the system can respond.

[The_Global_Warmer]

I mostly care about what happens in the US and not some distant third world country.

That kind of undermines your zealous concern.

In a way its not much different then the selfish interests of oil companies.

Those 3rd world countries are typically the most innocent.

Not to Menton human beings have no say in where they are born.

I would have expected more compassion from you.

Being american is arbitrary and completely abstract.

Being human isn't.

[The_Global_Warmer]

And 10ft is impossible physically via melting.

Only a huge slab of ice sliding into the ocean or some other thing like a earthquake or volcano/earthquake under the ice unrelated could cause that.

[AvantHiatus]

I agree TGW but I can't change who I am at the core. I'm arguing for my own skin. I've grown up on the water my whole life. First on the Gulf Coast, Florida, and now NJ. All of which will be gone without effective action.

 

I don't consider myself liberal, and I don't have to subscribe to ideaologies to believe in a scientific fact.

 

Eat a big one deniers. Good luck debunking this one.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/03/12/first-it-was-crazy-winters-now-global-warming-may-also-be-driving-crazy-summers/?postshare=1211426187588202

 

So 10ft will never ever happen? You can't be serious man, expected more out of you. 85 years is a long time when you consider how different the atmosphere and climate will be in 30 years.

[AvantHiatus]

The logic here TGW. Is that by saving the US, you save the world. That is because the US will see stronger sea level rise. To keep the US SLR below 5ft, we will have succeeded in saving other countries.

 

But we did not act on it for the sake of others, but to save ourselves.

 

Perhaps I should of said North America because I don't believe in national boundaries and ideology. I just want to preserve our geography and establish a good simple life, so that we can still work the land and fish inside a healthy ecosystem. Especially I want my children to have a good life and be able to pick up a rockfish, etc. or what have you.

 

There are too many people on the planet. That is all I will say for now.

[skierinvermont]

I'm not really up on the current science, but last I really looked into this 3-5 years ago, 10ft was considered a possibility. Not the mean or most likely estimate, but a tail risk in a very uncertain field.

[AvantHiatus]

I'm not really up on the current science, but last I really looked into this 3-5 years ago, 10ft was considered a possibility. Not the mean or most likely estimate, but a tail risk in a very uncertain field.

Dead on accurate as usual Skier. Some regions are already significantly affected by SLR activity.

 

Over the years, the literature has progressively found that ice sheets are more sensitive to warming and capable of injecting greater amounts of meltwater. I don't know if this trend will continue but let us hope it does not.

 

 

Rising seas had resulted in increasing levels of salt water in near-coast aquifers and wetlands. The rising salt levels in soils made irrigation of coastal crops impossible in many regions. Within just a few years, the elevated seas had rendered 1 million hectares of land arid — making it impossible for farmers to grow crops or to raise animals.

According to a June 2014 report by World Bulletin:

In addition, saltwater invasions of the Indus river reduced fish stocks. This sudden loss of water useful to agriculture and precipitous fall in fish stocks suddenly put many farmers and fishermen out of work.

Both surface water and ground water have become unusable, with the once fertile Indus river basin turning into a desert, as sea water brings sand inland as far as 50 kilometers.

By mid 2014, more than 100,000 people had fled the coast. Now, these tens of thousands of jobless farmers and fishermen pack the streets of inland towns — seeking jobs and places to live that simply may not be available.

But what this litany of harsh statistics doesn’t tell is how many of the children lost came from families of those displaced by rising seas.

Sadly, this issue of river deltas losing fertility to the inexorably rising tide is not just a problem for Pakistan. Many of the worlds most productive agricultural zones lie in delta regions. At this point, all are under threat due to speeding sea level rise set off by rising rates of glacial melt. And as we have seen in Brazil, California and Pakistan this year other increasing atmospheric temperatures, climate induced weather pattern changes and deforestation (Brazil, Pakistan) also play a role.

 

Antarctica as a source region has become the primary driver of SLR, even in the 21st century. However, the dynamics have not begun in earnest and are still ramping up. Regardless, SLR is still hovering markedly above IPCCs worst case assessment, even now.

 

 

 

Figure: Sea level measured by satellite altimeter (red with linear trend line) … and reconstructed from tide gauges (orange, monthly data from Church and White (2011))…. The scenarios of the IPCC are shown in blue (third assessment) and green (fourth assessment); the former have been published starting in the year 1990 and the latter from 2000.

 

 

 

New Study Finds 3-4 Meter Sea Level Rise From Antarctica May be Imminent

https://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2014/10/03/new-study-finds-3-4-meter-sea-level-rise-from-antarctica-may-be-imminent/

 

 

 

In the Antarctic, today, what we see is a cold surface layer and a heating bottom layer. The cold surface layer is fed by an expanding pulse of chill, fresh water issuing from the melting glaciers of Antarctica. Over the years it has become more uniform, sequestering cold near the surface as warmth builds up in the depths below. The deeper hot layer is fed by warmer water issuing in from the tropics and heated to temperatures not seen for tens of thousands of years. This hot water bears a heavy burden of salt. So it is denser and it dives beneath the expanding fresh water layer. The insulating fresh, cold water layer prevents mixing between the bottom layer and the surface. Such mixing would cool the bottom layer. But instead the heat builds and builds and builds.

 

 

 

During the last glacial termination, the upwelling strength of the southern polar limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation varied, changing the ventilation and stratification of the high-latitude Southern Ocean. During the same period, at least two phases of abrupt global sea-level rise—meltwater pulses—took place. Although the timing and magnitude of these events have become better constrained, a causal link between ocean stratification, the meltwater pulses and accelerated ice loss from Antarctica has not been proven. Here we simulate Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the last 25 kyr using a data-constrained ice-sheet model forced by changes in Southern Ocean temperature from an Earth system model. Results reveal several episodes of accelerated ice-sheet recession, the largest being coincident with meltwater pulse 1A. This resulted from reduced Southern Ocean overturning following Heinrich Event 1, when warmer subsurface water thermally eroded grounded marine-based ice and instigated a positive feedback that further accelerated ice-sheet retreat.

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

Not to Mention human beings have no say in where they are born.

I would have expected more compassion from you.

Being american is arbitrary and completely abstract.

Being human isn't.

 

 

GlobalWarmer , being a proud American doesn't take anything away from the facts of how much damage were doing to our climate....atleast in my opinion. 

 

Were right up there with China....as one of the biggest offenders .

 

 

Interesting I suppose, bacon. There are uncertainties in all directions. I have not ruled out negative feedbacks caused by catastrophic meltwater injection into the North Atlantic.

 

At the end of the day, Ben is looking to appear credible at the expense of accuracy. Could be a double edged sword from CO2 and Space Weather, truely unlucky. He is consistently using the traditional denier talking points and comes across as pompous.

 

If it turns out a grand solar minimum is occuring, CO2 emissions might save us from the deep freeze.

 

yeah, he kind of throws every option out there.  I can never tell which way he's leaning, but was surprised he invested so much towards global cooling being imminent. (with so many current indicators....*yours included*  pointing opposite) 

 

His main points were valid though...how nobody really knows what's going on, and which direction were heading...corruption and lobbying from all directions , etc.   

[chubbs]

GlobalWarmer , being a proud American doesn't take anything away from the facts of how much damage were doing to our climate....atleast in my opinion. 

 

Were right up there with China....as one of the biggest offenders .

 

 

 

yeah, he kind of throws every option out there.  I can never tell which way he's leaning, but was surprised he invested so much towards global cooling being imminent. (with so many current indicators....*yours included*  pointing opposite) 

 

His main points were valid though...how nobody really knows what's going on, and which direction were heading...corruption and lobbying from all directions , etc.   

That video was unwatchable.. Full of misinformation.

[A-L-E-K]

it's denier garbage

[ORH_wxman]

The 10 foot sea level rise claims by 2100 are generally the same group of nutjobs who claimed sea ice would be gone by this year and other over-the-top alarmist claims.

Yeah maybe some obscenely low probability, but not very practical to the discussion.

[A-L-E-K]

no big thing, 2' will be bad enough

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

it's denier garbage

 

 

wow...u interpreted that as that?  

 

 I saw open minded insight into both sides....with a slight leaning towards denying. 

[A-L-E-K]

wow...u interpreted that as that?  

 

 I saw open minded insight into both sides....with a slight leaning towards denying. 

 

 

we're all still laughing at your awful posts in the ebola thread

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

[HailMan06]

wow...u interpreted that as that?

I saw open minded insight into both sides....with a slight leaning towards denying.

Idk man there was a lot of pseudoscience in that video.

[AvantHiatus]

wow...u interpreted that as that?  

 

 I saw open minded insight into both sides....with a slight leaning towards denying. 

No matter what happens, he will be correct because he covered all bases. Lol

[AvantHiatus]

 

 

But as new data came in, the situation has looked worse: over the last 17 years, the rate of warming has doubled to about four bombs per second. In 2013, the rate of warming tripled to become equivalent to 12 Hiroshima bombs every second.

So not only is warming intensifying, it is also accelerating. By burning fossil fuels, humans are effectively detonating 378 million atomic bombs in the oceans each year - this, along with the ocean's over - absorption of carbon dioxide, has fuelled ocean acidification, and now threatens the entire marine food chain as well as animals who feed on marine species. Like, er, many humans.

According to a new paper in Science from a crack team of climate scientists, a key reason that the oceans are absorbing all this heat in recent decades so well (thus masking the extent of global warming by allowing atmospheric average temperatures to heat more slowly), is due to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), an El Nino-like weather pattern that can last anywhere between 15-30 years.

In its previous positive phase, which ran from around 1977 to 1998, the PDO meant the oceans would absorb less heat, thus operating as an accelerator on atmospheric temperatures. Since 1998, the PDO has been in a largely negative phase, during which the oceans absorb more heat from the atmosphere.

Such decadal ocean cycles have broken down recently, and become more sporadic. The last, mostly negative phase, was punctuated by a brief positive phase that lasted 3 years between 2002 and 2005.

[nflwxman]

Doubtful...while the hiatus may end...temps will fall again in the next round of La ninas...they need to keep screaming upward to match model projections.

 

Remember that model projections accelerate the warming as we go out in time. So it takes even more warming to "catch up" to them.

 

Unless we are talking about the lower emission scenarios, which are kind of irrelevant since emissions are not low.

I know you and I disagree about how near term future warming will behave.  My thoughts are that even with the next La Nina cycle, we won't see nearly as much cooling as the previous one due to the PDO.  I think there is certainly momentum in the system now in terms of accelerating surface warmth.  The next couple of years should be telling, but 2015 is certainly starting out very warm.

[nflwxman]

Last OT response, but I usually eat at least 1 pound of beef per day...and average around 6 eggs per day (give or take)....throw in an occasional chicken thigh with skin, and some shrimp and there's my way of eating!!! Good stuff!!

Apparently Cholesterol isn't bad for you anymore.  True Story. Thanks Science!

[ORH_wxman]

I know you and I disagree about how near term future warming will behave.  My thoughts are that even with the next La Nina cycle, we won't see nearly as much cooling as the previous one due to the PDO.  I think there is certainly momentum in the system now in terms of accelerating surface warmth.  The next couple of years should be telling, but 2015 is certainly starting out very warm.

 

How do you know what the PDO will be?

 

This recent impressive spike doesn't have to a permament regime shift. It could easily get rolled right back into negative territory by the time another Nina comes.

[nflwxman]

How do you know what the PDO will be?

 

This recent impressive spike doesn't have to a permament regime shift. It could easily get rolled right back into negative territory by the time another Nina comes.

I don't, but chances are high that the floor is not nearly as low as what happened in 2008-2013.

[LakeEffectKing]

Apparently Cholesterol isn't bad for you anymore.  True Story. Thanks Science!

Funny how my total cholesterol went down substantially as my dietary cholesterol certainly went up...go figure!! High cholesterol is a symptom of inflammation of the arterial walls....well known to be caused by high blood glucose/insulin....cut the sugar/carbs, and voila, inflammation goes down, serum cholesterol will do so in kind...

[The_Global_Warmer]

I don't, but chances are high that the floor is not nearly as low as what happened in 2008-2013.

Almost guaranteed 2008 is out of reach.

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

Funny how my total cholesterol went down substantially as my dietary cholesterol certainly went up...go figure!! High cholesterol is a symptom of inflammation of the arterial walls....well known to be caused by high blood glucose/insulin....cut the sugar/carbs, and voila, inflammation goes down, serum cholesterol will do so in kind...

 

 

Sugar is the main culprit for heart attacks. And a bigger trigger than high cholesterol itself.    Sugar = inflammation.  Sugar = cancer.

 

I've been living fine for the last 15+ years with very high chloresterol....and have never taken lipids for it    Lipid drugs weaken your body (muscles) over time...and can even make you more prone to heart attacks.    My weight has also been in the normal range all these years.

 

If you have high cholesterol and eat a fatty hamburger, your body stops producing cholesterol for an extended period of time..the body adjusts to compensate , depending on what your current cholesterol levels are. 

 

Moderate exercise = the best medicine. 

[LakeEffectKing]

Sugar is the main culprit for heart attacks. And a bigger trigger than high cholesterol itself.    Sugar = inflammation.  Sugar = cancer.

 

I've been living fine for the last 15+ years with very high chloresterol....and have never taken lipids for it    Lipid drugs weaken your body (muscles) over time...and can even make you more prone to heart attacks.    My weight has also been in the normal range all these years.

 

If you have high cholesterol and eat a fatty hamburger, your body stops producing cholesterol for an extended period of time..the body adjusts to compensate , depending on what your current cholesterol levels are. 

 

Moderate exercise = the best medicine.

Agreed 99%...I assume you had "skepticism" of the mainstream montra "eat low fat" to be healthy, to come to your conclusions of "sugar is the main culprit"....now carry some of that skepticism over to AGW, and voila, you'll see some parallels wrt the mainstream conclusions drawn...IOW...politics (on both sides) skews the truth...and/or skews the degree of certainty in either direction of the applicable argument...

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

Fiber = very important as well...to soak up all the extra oils in our bodies. (good and bad oils)  Some people find it a nuissance, as it typically results in more bowel movements...but your doing A LOT good for your body in general.  Including lowering cholesterol amounts.

 

Nowadays fiber is more flexible and pleasant to consume compared to the old days, where there weren't as many options.  Like psyllium husk...which many were allergic to.

 

Now they come in candy form...like those gummi things.   other options :

 

Nutrigrain bars

Chewable Fiber Choice supplements (Inulin)

 

or if caplets are your thing :

 

Methylcellulose  or

Calcium Polycarbophil

 

Or just getting it directly from healthy meals.   And look at that, I didn't even bring up the topic of Glutens.  

 

(taking the dr. phil hat off for the day) 

[AvantHiatus]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_h92Ath_2XA

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

Just wanted to say, it's nice reading everybody's input here, even if we disagree. 

 

usually these sections aren't too civil, but this one strangely respects both sides.   (for the most part)

 

these next few years should be pivotal in determining 'whats going really on'...climate change wise.