Climate Change Banter

[ORH_wxman]

The abrupt climate change is not entirely visible in the global average. It is most apparent in the Arctic Amplification and changes in OHC. Please keep laughing and downplaying everything.

 

http://www.skepticalscience.com/images/Arctic_Trend_simulated.gif

 

 

When discussing temperature changes...we are talking about global temperatures. You can cherry pick any localized region you want to find a big positive trend. I can find an equally negative one in the past decade...that's why the average is close to zero.

 

Posting alarmist graphs of PIOMAS exponential extrapolated trends doesn't change that.

[bluewave]

We are now using arctic sea ice as the main metric to decide if we are "warming faster than anybody anticipated 5-10 years ago" ??

 

That is laughable.

 

Using the IPCC's temperature projections from AR4 and TAR is perfectly valid in deciding what scientists thought 5-10 years ago.

 

My guess is that as the -PDO era continues, those older forecasts will be dropped in favor of the slower

21st Century warming shown in the recent study by Meehl of about +1.4C of warming by 2100.

 

 

 

http://www.scienceda...10918144941.htm

 

 

To track where the heat was going, Meehl and colleagues used a powerful software tool known as the Community Climate System Model, which was developed by scientists at NCAR and the Department of Energy with colleagues at other organizations. Using the model's ability to portray complex interactions between the atmosphere, land, oceans, and sea ice, they performed five simulations of global temperatures.

The simulations, which were based on projections of future greenhouse gas emissions from human activities, indicated that temperatures would rise by several degrees during this century. But each simulation also showed periods in which temperatures would stabilize for about a decade before climbing again. For example, one simulation showed the global average rising by about 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit (1.4 degrees Celsius) between 2000 and 2100, but with two decade-long hiatus periods during the century.

[ORH_wxman]

My guess is that as the -PDO era continues, those older forecasts will be dropped in favor of the slower

21st Century warming shown in the recent study by Meehl of about +1.4C of warming by 2100.

 

UPDATED_11-25.png

 

 

http://www.scienceda...10918144941.htm

 

 

To track where the heat was going, Meehl and colleagues used a powerful software tool known as the Community Climate System Model, which was developed by scientists at NCAR and the Department of Energy with colleagues at other organizations. Using the model's ability to portray complex interactions between the atmosphere, land, oceans, and sea ice, they performed five simulations of global temperatures.

The simulations, which were based on projections of future greenhouse gas emissions from human activities, indicated that temperatures would rise by several degrees during this century. But each simulation also showed periods in which temperatures would stabilize for about a decade before climbing again. For example, one simulation showed the global average rising by about 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit (1.4 degrees Celsius) between 2000 and 2100, but with two decade-long hiatus periods during the century.

 

 

It certainly seems reasonable...though I do wonder what else is going on. Probably more study on aerosols and solar feedbacks is needed. But I agree the PDO is definitely a player. It will be interesting to see if we have any effect when the AMO goes into its cold phase in another decade or so...giving us a period where both are in the cold phase.

 

Conversely, we'll also have to see how fast it warms when the PDO reverses back to warm in about 20 years.

 

 

 

Obviously some local regions have seen surface warming without the global temps rising such as the arctic in the past decade. Maybe 2013 was a correction and start of a cooler period? Or maybe it was just a blip and we will be back to 2007-2012 warmth the rest of this decade.

[AvantHiatus]

A key takeaway point is how a +PDO phase will affect temperature trends.

 

If the -PDO imparts a negative forcing as strongly as suggested, then it is also possible the +PDO is an equally powerful positive forcing.

 

To be honest, despite what others have claimed, arctic sea ice is a deal breaker for global climate due to the associated albedo feedbacks and permafrost related warming events. I think it would overwhelm the -PDO when we observe the September ice-free state.

 

Is it really possible for PIOMAS volumes to stay above 0 in September for the next 30 years? These are key questions one needs to answer before forecasting climate far into the future.

 

Globally, 2013 was warmer than 2011 and 2012 so there is no "blip" if you use that as the primary metric.

[bluewave]

It certainly seems reasonable...though I do wonder what else is going on. Probably more study on aerosols and solar feedbacks is needed. But I agree the PDO is definitely a player. It will be interesting to see if we have any effect when the AMO goes into its cold phase in another decade or so...giving us a period where both are in the cold phase.

 

Conversely, we'll also have to see how fast it warms when the PDO reverses back to warm in about 20 years.

 

 

 

Obviously some local regions have seen surface warming without the global temps rising such as the arctic in the past decade. Maybe 2013 was a correction and start of a cooler period? Or maybe it was just a blip and we will be back to 2007-2012 warmth the rest of this decade.

 

The updated HADGEM projection will be out soon and it will be good to see it since  since the new

model shows a slower rate of increase with the -PDO. It's also interesting to see how the November 2012

run captured the cooling of the NW Atlantic relative to recent years with the associated more +AO/+NAO.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/decadal-fc

[The_Global_Warmer]

Given how warm 2013 was for the ONI index.  And seeing how warm 2014 is starting in spite of some pretty stout ENSO cooling as well as the ONI as it was heading into 2014.  I think the OHC charts are right showing an increase in heat and the "hiatus" is about over.

 

With 17 days down and 14 to go. Weatherbell is at .10C which is a .65C on giss equivalent for January.

 

 

 

 

[Jonger]

Anyone who states that we are warming faster than anticipated is a liar, plain and simple.

We have under shot the lowest scenario.

[skierinvermont]

I think the President's statement is not a fair or proper portrayal of the facts. Yes some aspects of AGW have occurred faster than expected, but many others have not (most importantly temperature). 

 

I'd like to point out that the graph of standardized anomalies for arctic vs antarctic sea ice is extremely misleading. For one, it constrains arctic sea ice decline between the +/- 2 deviations blunting the decline of arctic sea ice, and then it magnifies the very slight long-term decline of antarctic sea ice. The whole point is to conceal that the decline in arctic sea ice has been 4 million sq km, while the increase in the antarctic has been a few hundred thousand. 

 

It also ignores the fact that AGW is not supposed to have a strong negative effect on antarctic sea ice. It also ignore the evidence that prior to 1980 there was some decline in antarctic sea ice. 

[skierinvermont]

And I'd also like to remind bluewave, that if you attribute the recent slowdown in surface warming to the -PDO that that is in fact an argument in favor of more warming in the future not less. 

 

If on the other hand you attribute it to low climate sensitivity, that would be an argument for less warming in the future. 

[Jonger]

The country is dealing with one of its coldest January's on record and what does Dr. Doom have to focus on.

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

The country is dealing with one of its coldest January's on record and what does Dr. Doom have to focus on.

 

jeff the fool.jpg

 

 

??????????????

 

 

[Jonger]

??????????????

 

 

 

 

Nobody is dying from lack of water and the populated center of the county is dealing with record daily cold shots.

 

This is a FAR biggest issue that outdoor hockey and severe drought that's effecting 5% of the populated land mass of this country.

 

COLD > WARM right now.

 

 

Winter Storm warnings in Houston???

 

Nah.... Drought and warmth in California is WAY more interesting.

 

He's a total tool.

[The_Global_Warmer]

You said it was one of the coldest January's on record which you made up to trash Jeff Masters.

 

 

Did you happen to read any of the other dozens of blog posts he has made about the cold and snowy winter in parts of the conus?

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

[Jonger]

You said it was one of the coldest January's on record which you made up to trash Jeff Masters.

Did you happen to read any of the other dozens of blog posts he has made about the cold and snowy winter in parts of the conus?

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

It's quite rare for there to be coast to coast cold.... Infact its nearly impossible, but the heartland is easily going to have a top 10 coldest January. That graphic is going to look much different by the end of the month. One half of the country is dealing with enjoyable weather and the other side is dealing with life endangering cold.

The hockey/drought post was pretty much following Jeff Masters usual hyping of warmth. We know where he stands and we know what he shines his spotlights on when he feels the need to squash weather news he doesn't feel helps his cause.

[AvantHiatus]

Surprising, it appeared to be alot colder than those maps imply. I guess the warm periods between the cold shots increased the temperature average greatly.

[The_Global_Warmer]

It's one blog post.  You said the country was having one of it's coldest January's on record.  You obviously just made that up based on your backyard.  There is no way you would have said that if you saw the actual anomalies.  Then you changed it to heartland. 

 

 

 

 

Figure 3. California Governor Jerry Brown holds a chart showing statewide average precipitation as he declares a drought state of emergency for California during a news conference on January 17, 2014 in San Francisco.

 

 

 

 

Funny though that you bash him and call him names and totally overlook the next 2 of 3 blog entries.

 

 

 

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2616

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2614

 

 

 

Figure 1. Lake Erie lies 90% covered in ice on January 9, 2014, after the intense "Polar Vortex" cold air outbreak over eastern North America that week. The cold air brought the Great Lakes their highest ice coverage in 20 years for that time of year. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

 

 

 

 

Sounds like you have the problem not Jeff Masters.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Surprising, it appeared to be alot colder than those maps imply. I guess the warm periods between the cold shots increased the temperature average greatly.

 

 

There are folks on my local board comparing this winter to the late 1970s ones.  Words can't do it justice how absurd that is.

 

Then again the guys they pay to hear thoughts from keep using 1917-18 as an analog.  Which is embarassing. 

 

 

Pending how much these cold spells can further cool off the Eastern half.  We will have a hard time getting the country cooler than January of 2011. 

 

 

What is really pathetic is these are the same guys(Joe Bastardi, Joe D. Aleo) and company who peddle garbage like 1918 analogs but cry that folks are sensationalizing AGW over months like March of 2012.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Jonger]

This winter locally has been colder than many 1970's winters. Maybe not on a national level, but locally it has.

[Jonger]

Nice job tinkering with the intervals to make each month look more extreme.

[AvantHiatus]

Hillarious

[The_Global_Warmer]

They are exactly the same?

 

So now we go from one of the coldest Jans on record.  To heartland.  To Michigan.

[sokolow]

Jonger there's a whole thread in Central/Western about the drought and you could get some Bear Flag perspectives on whether the drought out there merits Masters posting about it.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41953-california-drought/#entry2662447

[AvantHiatus]

Oh yeah, I hear you coming from the East Coast myself  .  I'm just trying to dispel this idea I hear a lot which is basically "isn't California used to this, it never rains there anyway!"  The average East Coaster should imagine a city like Boston getting only 8" of rain.  That's the magnitude of this drought in the normally extremely wet northern part of the state.  Pure insanity, and unprecedented back to 1850.

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

164 years+ of unprecendetedness.

 

 

Damn.

[sokolow]

Have a look at the two blogs mentioned, Weather West and this Tahoe OpenSnow summary:

http://www.weatherwest.com/

Nothing like a bunch of skiers to give Lakes snow lovers a run for capacity to be disappointed:

http://opensnow.com/dailysnow/post/1999

That 8-station index:

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/precip/PLOT_ESI

Anyhow here's hoping CA gets a thorough soaking through February and March.

[Jonger]

Have a look at the two blogs mentioned, Weather West and this Tahoe OpenSnow summary:

http://www.weatherwest.com/

Nothing like a bunch of skiers to give Lakes snow lovers a run for capacity to be disappointed:

http://opensnow.com/dailysnow/post/1999

That 8-station index:

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/precip/PLOT_ESI

Anyhow here's hoping CA gets a thorough soaking through February and March.

 

There's no doubt, this California situation is bad.... The snow in their mountains is in bad shape.

[FPizz]

It was also bad plenty of times in the past. Blaming global warming on everything is the biggest problem. When you blame it on warm, cold, wet , dry, etc, most people don't give a crap anymore and feel it is complete b.s.

[skierinvermont]

It was also bad plenty of times in the past. Blaming global warming on everything is the biggest problem. When you blame it on warm, cold, wet , dry, etc, most people don't give a crap anymore and feel it is complete b.s.

 

While I share some of your sentiment, drying  and warming of the SW U.S. is a consistent prediction in a warmer world. It's also been found in paleoclimate data as well... extreme drought in the SW U.S. was prevalent in previous warm periods including the Medieval Warm Period. There's even evidence these droughts caused the downfall of several cultures such as the Fremont people.

[AvantHiatus]

Drudge and Jonger have been communicating.

 

 

Big bold top headline:  Coldest month in century

 

Article:  'The cold coming for the end of January is sufficient to make this the coldest month of the century so far and the coldest the Lower 48 has felt in the last 20 years.'

[sokolow]

It was also bad plenty of times in the past. Blaming global warming on everything is the biggest problem. When you blame it on warm, cold, wet , dry, etc, most people don't give a crap anymore and feel it is complete b.s.

The trick is, like skierinvermont says, is that OK, drought in CA has been bad historically. In fact, paleoclimate indicates it may have been much worse.

In fact as is sorta a cliche by now, we had the great misfortune from a planning perspective to have allocated the Colorado's water after a decade of flow measurements done during an abnormally wet decade.

And CA has 38 million people and a rather large economy locked in a precarious relationship with water already.

As the CA water blog points out, historically bad drought in CA has spurred policy change and infrastructure development:

http://californiawaterblog.com/2014/01/21/california-droughts-precipitate-innovation/

After a century of this and multibillions of private, muni, county, State, and Federal dollars getting spent on water and fire we're starting to hit limits of what can be done with surface & groundwater. Even absent climate change.

Again, as skier says, the best guess on what AGW means for CA is notably drier and hotter. So when we get events like the current drought, CA elected officials need to be hammering home for the electorate that as we do policymaking, economic development, land use, individual habit, and so on in the current drought we need to spend one dang minute thinking 30 or 40 years out at the prospect of more people, combined with more (and more) diverse commitments of water, and less water to go around.

That conversation has got to be pessimistic about climate impacts for CA and aggressive about being conservative -- because if it turns out that Mike Mann and James Hansen are frauds and charlatans or just plain wrong or whatever and water availability remains much as it is, fine. CA can go back to building tickytacky semirural ranch houses in seismically active burn zones and accept those risks that we're already used to and eventually it will no longer be feasible costwise to waste water on stupid crap and we'll stop that kind of expansion.

If they're right, then you got millions of people and billions of dollars of investment sunk into economic activity and infrastructure that is no longer tenable and suddenly its people getting displaced and industry shutting down. If they're right,

Jerry Brown may have declared a drought emergency statewide and called for rationing, but that didn’t stop a homeowners association in San Lorenzo from fining residents for having dead lawns, KTVU reported.

John Glisar, 55, told the station he doesn’t want to water his lawn, but faces fines of between $100 to $1,000 if he doesn’t after receiving a second warning from the San Lorenzo Village Homes Association.

“I’m going to water as much as I possibly can,” Glisar said.

... 30, 40 years from now boy will our faces be red.